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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

Is it unlikely ? The pattern supports a big storm. 

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3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

Why is unlikely, I've heard from multiple sources that it's a great look. 

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4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know it's unlikely but this is the 4th gfs run in the past 2 days with a similar solution though this one is the best outcome

The euro has had some pretty strong solutions too. Not quite what the GFS shows but close.

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IMO if the 0Z has 2 of the top 3 GFS, Euro and Canadian and at least one of their ensembles mean show a similar 18Z  GFS scenario then start a storm thread but not until those conditions are met......,

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10 minutes ago, David-LI said:

And if the GFS verifies it's another major snowstorm starting Saturday and ending Sunday.

when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period

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16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

when is the last time it verified a MECS or greater over the last few years for our area ? Its shown them quite a few times over that time period

even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while..

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28 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

After tomorrow's dusting/whiff. And if next Saturday/Sunday doesn't pan out. I expect to start seeing winter is canceled posts.

So true, however, this is just the beginning. I think we have several chances lining up as we move through January and have read as much. 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The far more active subtropical jet during El Niño events facilitates the development of Miller A storms. During La Niña's the subtropical jet is less impactful and often quiet. It's a non-factor with the current storm. Phased solutions and Miller B transitions are more challenging dynamically.

Normally we would still see snowy la ninas if they came right after an el nino because the subtropical jet would still be there (a la 95-96 and 10-11) but last year's el nino didn't have a normal el nino subtropical jet either.

 

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6 hours ago, jm1220 said:

In 03-04 NYC did better than Boston by an inch or two if not mistaken. That’s really the last winter I can think of where like you said, I-80 was hit pretty good by a few storms. We had the bitter cold Jan clipper with heavy snow in single digits and a nice 8-12” type event in late Jan that both missed Boston. NYC seems to do better than Boston maybe 2-3x per decade. 2015-16 NYC did better, and 2020-21 was tied. 

That's right and the other thing that stands out about 03-04 was the early December blizzard (our earliest blizzard) that lasted two days and where the rain/snow line was like 5 miles south of us on the first day of the storm lol.

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