winterwx21 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: There’s nothing else to talk about…who cares We have a close call with snow tomorrow and a potential storm for next Saturday. Plus a consistent cold pattern. Plenty to talk about. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: We have a close call with snow tomorrow and a potential storm for next Saturday. Plus a consistent cold pattern. Plenty to talk about. Southern posters of this forum may get an inch tomorrow. Other than that we have a day 7 threat which is pretty much a thread the needle. Nobody cares about it being 30 and windy. we aren’t talking single digit cold. We have nothing actually of note in the near future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I've asked a few times and no one can really answer-where has he been wrong? Is he more wrong than the weenie mets and others like BAMwx everyone likes to repost that call for blizzards and cold all the time? His style is irritating but he's right much more often than wrong. Maybe he missed the cold period for the first half of this month? Although it's not really cold-not true arctic origin, just below average for this time of year and cold enough for snow which we're of course missing out on and what most here care about. even the most professional mets are wrong at times to say has he ever been wrong before is very incredulous... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: GFS is just miserable. Mostly cold & dry...yuck Buckle up....to prevent model whiplash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I care as well as quite a few others here- folllow the directions ! Next weekend is not set in stone yet not even sure if its thread worthy but is within the 5 -7 day range now You aren’t a moderator. If someone wants to talk about a few past events during down time then let them. This is a an online weather board not the military. I’ve said my peace. Carry on 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, psv88 said: You aren’t a moderator. If someone wants to talk about a few past events during down time then let them. This is a an online weather board not the military. I’ve said my peace. Carry on Yes it's all related. Talking about the pattern and past snowstorms are all on topic except in storm specific threads. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: exactly Mount Holly still has 1 - 3 inches for our area in Middlesex County NJ tomorrow and next weekend is still a big question mark - plenty to talk about There’s a thread to talk about tomorrow’s storm. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: I had no issues yesterday but just tried to submit a ‘None’ report thru the app on my phone and got “Report Submission Failed. Sorry, unable to submit your report” MPING is back. Delete app and reacquire. Certificates expired this morning per mPING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 hours ago, BoulderWX said: The next week on this forum would make an incredible case study in psychology. Should be *fun* to watch. ^17 hours ago when the mood was quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro missed the phase for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Cold period daily Jan 4 EWR: 36 / 28 (-2) NYC: 33 / 28 (-4) LGA: 34 / 29 (-4) JFK: 37 / 30 (0 E) -------------------------------------------------- 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro missed the phase for next weekend Say it ain’t so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: If I'm not mistaken, @donsutherland1 and @bluewave I'm sure have defined stats, NYC doesn't want a +AO for major snow threats. The late Jan 2022 storm happened during a +AO which allowed it to escape just east enough to keep the heaviest snow over LI and eastern SNE. There seems to be a defined -AO range between -1 and -2.5 where NYC's major storms happen. Too low like we have now and the threat goes up for too suppressed like tomorrow's. But I'd think the timeframe where the pattern shifts is where we can finally make something happen here. AO+ greatly limits the risk of NYC January snowstorms. There are a few exceptions. AO values of -3 or below are typically too suppressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So looks like we wait until the second half of January for a plowable snow. Hate wasting this time of year when we can get a long lasting snow pack and no sun angle issues. once March 1 hits I’m done with snow and ready for spring. So clock ticking 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: So looks like we wait until the second half of January for a plowable snow. Hate wasting this time of year when we can get a long lasting snow pack and no sun angle issues. once March 1 hits I’m done with snow and ready for spring. So clock ticking The snowblower continues to collect dust faster than any snow outside! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah but where? Green brook is very close by and got 18" in the March 2018 storm. Just a tiny bit of elevation was the difference between 5 and 20" This was taken March 22nd 2018 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: bump. the blocking is still there through the end of the ensembles. patience @Allsnow You just need some patience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Wow I forgot there was a blizzard warning even out here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 not once ..he's here to irritate snow lovers and as you can tell he does a great job.That’s why I blocked him. Unfortunately, I still see his posts when others quote him. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: This was taken March 22nd 2018 Where I live now got absolutely crushed in that event, probably 18”. Long Beach had 10-11”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I think it's worth mentioning that Central Park only had 4 one foot plus snow storms in March in recorded history. Getting a KU 1-ft Plus in March has never been common in Central Park, ever. March 2013 to 2019 was the exception rather than the rule in NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8.4 8.4 2013 7.3 7.3 2014 0.1 0.1 2015 18.6 18.6 2016 0.9 0.9 2017 9.7 9.7 2018 11.6 11.6 2019 10.4 10.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2020 T T 2021 T T 2022 0.4 0.4 2023 0.1 0.1 2024 T T 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: March 2013 to 2019 was the exception rather than the rule in NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 8.4 8.4 2013 7.3 7.3 2014 0.1 0.1 2015 18.6 18.6 2016 0.9 0.9 2017 9.7 9.7 2018 11.6 11.6 2019 10.4 10.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2020 T T 2021 T T 2022 0.4 0.4 2023 0.1 0.1 2024 T T March 2019 wasn’t too bad for the North Shore and northern NYC-had some marginal events that were rain on the south shore. Couldn’t make up for the disaster of the rest of that winter. I think half of the south shore’s snow that winter came in the freak Nov 2018 event. Everything else either suppressed or cutter/SWFE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: AO+ greatly limits the risk of NYC January snowstorms. There are a few exceptions. AO values of -3 or below are typically too suppressive. 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: We are still getting the overpowering Niña-like Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So this has lead to cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern stream storm tracks this winter. A strong -AO +PNA pattern works better for us with a weaker Northern Stream and stronger STJ. So whether we get a +PNA,-PNA, -AO, or +AO is mostly relevant for temperatures but not snowfall so far under this jet configuration. What pattern will work for snow now in NYC? Certainly, KC-dca isn’t complaining about the fast northern stream today. Respectfully, if we have flaws in all these h5 looks now then nyc-bos shouldn’t expect to see much snow in the coming winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 32 minutes ago, psv88 said: So looks like we wait until the second half of January for a plowable snow. Hate wasting this time of year when we can get a long lasting snow pack and no sun angle issues. once March 1 hits I’m done with snow and ready for spring. So clock ticking Do you have this ? https://parks.ny.gov/boating/education.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What pattern will work for snow now in NYC? Certainly, KC-dca isn’t complaining about the fast northern stream today. Respectfully, if we have flaws in all these h5 looks now then nyc-bos shouldn’t expect to see much snow in the coming winters The current 500 mb pattern is a good one for the Middle Atlantic region (Washington, DC). It is not consistent with patterns for significant snowfalls for NYC and northward. Patterns conducive to widespread big snows from DCA to BOS are much less uncommon. Overall, the pattern is producing a significant event, just not for the NYC/PHL area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The current 500 mb pattern is a good one for the Middle Atlantic region (Washington, DC). It is not consistent with patterns for significant snowfalls for NYC and northward. Patterns conducive to widespread big snows from DCA to BOS are much less uncommon. Overall, the pattern is producing a significant event, just not for the NYC/PHL area. Understandable. but @bluewaveis saying its because of CC with the fast northern stream and pac. Which is different than saying this h5 look produces for the mid Atlantic historically. That’s why I asked the question. If cc is causing flaws in the ointment then we shouldn’t expect much snow in the coming years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, Rjay said: This was taken March 22nd 2018 Farmingdale had 20 inches in that storm if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Understandable. but @bluewaveis saying its because of CC with the fast northern stream and pac. Which is different than saying this h5 look produces for the mid Atlantic historically. That’s why I asked the question. If cc is causing flaws in the ointment then we shouldn’t expect much snow in the coming years I think it's a complicated question that no one really has an answer to yet. I think CC is causing positive feedback loops that lead to further warming and shit patterns for snow for us. I still think we get big winters at times but gone is the truly cold winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The current 500 mb pattern is a good one for the Middle Atlantic region (Washington, DC). It is not consistent with patterns for significant snowfalls for NYC and northward. Patterns conducive to widespread big snows from DCA to BOS are much less uncommon. Overall, the pattern is producing a significant event, just not for the NYC/PHL area. In addition to that, correct me if I'm wrong Don, but in la ninas you typically have smaller snow shields and more thread the needle events? January 1996 was an obvious exception, but in most la ninas I remember the area that gets hit with heavy snow is usually small. DCA to BOS heavy snowfalls typically occur in el ninos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 27 minutes ago, jm1220 said: March 2019 wasn’t too bad for the North Shore and northern NYC-had some marginal events that were rain on the south shore. Couldn’t make up for the disaster of the rest of that winter. I think half of the south shore’s snow that winter came in the freak Nov 2018 event. Everything else either suppressed or cutter/SWFE. It proved the old saying about winters usually sucking if you get a snowstorm in November lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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