WX-PA Posted Sunday at 02:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:29 PM 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I absolutely believe we see -PNA/RNA at the end of the month. The 2 questions are 1) how strong of a -PNA? (which you just said) and 2) is there going to be legit west-based -NAO blocking to somewhat tame the SE ridging? Totally shocked you would say that..lol 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Sunday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 PM 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I absolutely believe we see -PNA/RNA at the end of the month. The 2 questions are 1) how strong of a -PNA? (which you just said) and 2) is there going to be legit west-based -NAO blocking to somewhat tame the SE ridging? How's your warm December and warm January going ? Stop making definite assumptions. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:37 PM 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How's your warm December and warm January going ? Stop making definite assumptions. It’s going as good as all your snowstorm fantasies 2 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:41 PM 21 minutes ago, nycwinter said: has snowman19 ever made a positive post about a potential winter storm it is very strange with a name as snowman he is anti snowstorm.. A mod should change his handle to rainman19 for fun 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:52 PM This current storm going on reminds me of an old 4 Corners Low in a bunch of ways. It's too bad it won't follow through with an offshore redevelopment and run up the coast like they used to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:14 PM Seasonal since 11/20 via CoCoRaHs obs: If interested click for clarity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:17 PM Starting to see a decent wave in phase one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM 25 minutes ago, gravitylover said: This current storm going on reminds me of an old 4 Corners Low in a bunch of ways. It's too bad it won't follow through with an offshore redevelopment and run up the coast like they used to. Agreed. A primary dying out over WV almost always meant coastal redeveloped in ideal spot for us...maybe next weekend Miller A will be better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:18 PM Quick spike with the AO a strong storm signal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 03:19 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:19 PM With regards to the teleconnections the most consistent this season are a continued negative nao and negative EPO. More variability in the AO and potentially PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted Sunday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:25 PM mPing? anyone know what's happening. Getting a response about impersonating. Did we have to reload it? fwiw... might have more flakes today in Wantage then we see tomorrow??? lots of fluffy flakes coming down... been off and on the past 3 days but today is the best yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:28 PM 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: mPing? anyone know what's happening. Getting a response about impersonating. Did we have to reload it? fwiw... might have more flakes today in Wantage then we see tomorrow??? lots of fluffy flakes coming down... been off and on the past 3 days but today is the best yet. I had no issues yesterday but just tried to submit a ‘None’ report thru the app on my phone and got “Report Submission Failed. Sorry, unable to submit your report” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted Sunday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:34 PM 7 minutes ago, wdrag said: mPing? anyone know what's happening. Getting a response about impersonating. Did we have to reload it? fwiw... might have more flakes today in Wantage then we see tomorrow??? lots of fluffy flakes coming down... been off and on the past 3 days but today is the best yet. Had numerous light snow showers here yesterday and a few flakes this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:42 PM 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: not once ..he's here to irritate snow lovers and as you can tell he does a great job. I've asked a few times and no one can really answer-where has he been wrong? Is he more wrong than the weenie mets and others like BAMwx everyone likes to repost that call for blizzards and cold all the time? His style is irritating but he's right much more often than wrong. Maybe he missed the cold period for the first half of this month? Although it's not really cold-not true arctic origin, just below average for this time of year and cold enough for snow which we're of course missing out on and what most here care about. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 03:43 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:43 PM Icon looks to slide out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:46 PM 25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Quick spike with the AO a strong storm signal? If I'm not mistaken, @donsutherland1 and @bluewave I'm sure have defined stats, NYC doesn't want a +AO for major snow threats. The late Jan 2022 storm happened during a +AO which allowed it to escape just east enough to keep the heaviest snow over LI and eastern SNE. There seems to be a defined -AO range between -1 and -2.5 where NYC's major storms happen. Too low like we have now and the threat goes up for too suppressed like tomorrow's. But I'd think the timeframe where the pattern shifts is where we can finally make something happen here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 03:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 PM 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Seeing all these disappointments over the last few years really makes me appreciate the epic snow pattern of the 2000s and 2010s. I'm sure we'll eventually get a nice big snowstorm but it's going to take a lot of work. And we still have time before the CC warming destroys our hopes. Just look at DC with their upcoming storm. We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:56 PM 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC. Excellent post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Sunday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:57 PM 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Icon looks to slide out to sea Need a full phase or it’s well out to sea, full phase in this pattern with the active northern stream is unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted Sunday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:02 PM Verbatim going by the European model it is snow to rain to snow (and not a lot of snow) at the coast. Again high pressure antecedent or incoming is not favorable for a big snowstorm as of yet. All that said a track too far south of us cannot be ruled out and given the pattern we have been in will have to be watched out for. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:04 PM 39 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Agreed. A primary dying out over WV almost always meant coastal redeveloped in ideal spot for us...maybe next weekend Miller A will be better The fast pattern means we need the phase or the trough and whole setup will be kicked out to sea. Note how positively tilted the non-phase models are like the GFS, and trough right behind it acting as a kicker. And if we have the phase it needs to be in a good spot, otherwise we run the risk of the coastal hugger and snow to rain near the coast. 6z GFS has a 972 just south of Fire Island, which would make for an outcome like 3/14/17 that was a washout east of the city. Maybe in this case the fast pattern and kicker would help nudge everything east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Another decent hit for the Mid-Atlantic on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM 12z gfs back south. Light event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM 21 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We're still many years or decades away from CC being the primary driver destroying snow threats. The patterns matter much more. When DC to Richmond and down to Ocean City MD have perfect tracks, "cold" pattern for then and no snow is when I'd worry. DC has lowered their snow average over the last 20 years and ours went up largely because the patterns/storm evolutions have been a lot more favorable from 2000-18 for this area through much of New England with more Miller B type storms. Since late 2018 we're seeing serious regression which we're due for and the pattern shift to very fast Pacific flow that our area is almost uniquely situated for the worst outcomes-too suppressed like tomorrow, late bloomer which hits Boston, or SWFE/cutter. What CC is likely doing is creating these long lasting marine heatwaves that then alter the patterns-the MJO constantly being in phase 4-6 (doesn't seem to be the case this winter) and essentially permanent Nina effects because of the boiling W PAC that then charges up the Pacific jet, likely has something to do with CC. These are conflicting viewpoints. If CC is altering the MJO and forcing due to record warm ssts then it's affecting the pattern. And in this case in a negative way for snow/cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:21 PM 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 12z gfs back south. Light event for us Would fit the theme from December of coating to 2-inch events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: 12z gfs back south. Light event for us My concern is that the models that do phase seem to blow it up too far west and cause it to hug the coast and it ends up another 3/14/17. We want it a little more progressive so that the phase and trough are 75-100 miles further east. The non-phased ones are maybe a period of light snow as it gets booted out to sea. The 6z GFS would be the worst imaginable kick in the balls east of NYC-too far north for tomorrow's event to a hugger mostly rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: Would fit the theme from December of coating to 2-inch events. This feels like we either get a big hit (ptype to be determined) or nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM 22 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Verbatim going by the European model it is snow to rain to snow (and not a lot of snow) at the coast. Again high pressure antecedent or incoming is not favorable for a big snowstorm as of yet. All that said a track too far south of us cannot be ruled out and given the pattern we have been in will have to be watched out for. WX/PT Euro is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:25 PM 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My concern is that the models that do phase seem to blow it up too far west and cause it to hug the coast and it ends up another 3/14/17. We want it a little more progressive so that the phase and trough are 75-100 miles further east. The non-phased ones are maybe a period of light snow as it gets booted out to sea. The 6z GFS would be the worst imaginable kick in the balls east of NYC-too far north for tomorrow's event to a hugger mostly rain. I would sign up for a repeat of that in a heartbeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:26 PM Just now, EastonSN+ said: I would sign up for a repeat of that in a heartbeat. Huge bust. Blizzard warnings for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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