January 2025

[BoulderWX]

986 exiting Delmarva @ 159 on GFS. ahhh those were the days lol. 
 

ends up hugging the coast/staying just inland in this morning’s version of whack a mole. 
 

Just another solution at this point but good to see a storm showing up consistently on models 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good research. The 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed off on the 3-contour +WPO pattern it was showing earlier today. Keeps a little more of a -NAO ridge in over the top too. This one is actually the "coming out of strong -NAO" storm, and it looks like it has a great 50/50 low. I'm not sold on it not mixing though.. 

a mixing storm would fit la nina climatology plus a hugger is what we would expect to see in a thread the needle scenario coming out of suppression.

On the positive side, a lot of people would see significant snow out of a storm like that even if it's not the immediate coast.  A few inches changing to rain is better than a miss. It's these kinds of storms that most commonly occur in this area.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good research. The 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed off on the 3-contour +WPO pattern it was showing earlier today. Keeps a little more of a -NAO ridge in over the top too. This one is actually the "coming out of strong -NAO" storm, and it looks like it has a great 50/50 low. I'm not sold on it not mixing though.. 

Some mixing would be plausible for sure.

[wdrag]

Not starting 1/10-11 thread till tomorrow is nearly done.  Canadian is not buying it. It also is the one model pretty far south on this one.  Maybe another behind it 17-20 with another shot of cold in between those two opportunities. 

[Neblizzard]

06z GFS has a blizzard for the poconos next week 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I do see what you're seeing as well, I just feel like 6 years is an extremely small sample size. If this continues then I can definitely be convinced and I am open-minded to it I just need more time and data.

Living and experiencing the 1980s and 1990s have really given me pause as I remember them being very warm and snowless and that may be skewing my viewpoint now.

I am more going by the last 60 years which is a large enough sample size to make a good analysis with. In the much colder climate from the 1960s to early 1990s NYC had 13 seasons within 5” of 25” inches. So the more stable colder climate had many seasons not far from average. With fewer well above and fewer well below snowfall seasons.

Since 1994 all or nothing seasons with a larger range of above and below normal snowfall seasons have been the norm. With only 3 seasons near the 25” average and many more with larger + or - minus deviations from around 25”. This occurred against the background of the fastest warming 30 year period of modern times. So the amplitude of our snowfall range has increased. This new distribution pattern is also the same at surrounding stations like Islip.

The last 6 seasons in NYC were 5 below and only one above. So the volatility since 1994 has been unchanged. 2010 to 2018 was our greatest concentration of all type seasons well above average. Very few normal seasons those years. So while I agree that 6 years is small sample size, we know with a high degree of certainty that NYC will need more coastal tracks as close to benchmark as possible to start getting more all type seasons again. In our warmer 2020s climate so far we have been seeing more cuttter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream systems.

So unless we change this storm track pattern, the current average around 14” last 5 years will continue. I am going to let this winter which is the 6th play out before adding the data to the 2020s so far. But at least to date this season, we have seen the same storm track pattern. Hopefully, we can start to see some change from this next few weeks and beyond. So I am fairly sure in this all or nothing regime since 1994 that NYC will need to return to KU storm tracks soon to get the snowfall back over 20” before we finish the 2020s decade. Since it’s unlikely the colder climate of the 60s to early 90s will return with enough smaller to medium events to get close to average. In our much warmer climate NYC needs KUs for average to above average snowfall. Since we aren’t cold enough anymore to get to 25” with a bunch of smaller to medium events spread across a colder season from start to finish. It’s no coincidence that 2010 to 2018 featured the greatest concentration of KU events on record.

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

06z GFS has a blizzard for the poconos next week 

Gefs and 0z eps are offshore 

6z Euro and eps phases later

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Neblizzard said:

06z GFS has a blizzard for the poconos next week 

Good, I'm headed there on the 18th.

Snow is most beneficial for the ski areas.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I am more going by the last 60 years which is a large enough sample size to make a good analysis with. In the much colder climate from the 1960s to early 1990s NYC had 13 seasons within 5” of 25” inches. So the more stable colder climate had many seasons not far from average. With fewer well above and fewer well below snowfall seasons.

Since 1994 all or nothing seasons with a larger range of above and below normal snowfall seasons have been the norm. With only 3 seasons near the 25” average and many more with larger + or - minus deviations from around 25”. This occurred against the background of the fastest warming 30 year period of modern times. So the amplitude of our snowfall range has increased. This new distribution pattern is also the same at surrounding stations like Islip.

The last 6 seasons in NYC were 5 below and only one above. So the volatility since 1994 has been unchanged. 2010 to 2018 was our greatest concentration of all type seasons well above average. Very few normal seasons those years. So while I agree that 6 years is small sample size, we know with a high degree of certainty that NYC will need more coastal tracks as close to benchmark as possible to start getting more all type seasons again. In our warmer 2020s climate so far we have been seeing more cuttter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream systems.

So unless we change this storm track pattern, the current average around 14” last 5 years will continue. I am going to let this winter which is the 6th play out before adding the data to the 2020s so far. But at least to date this season, we have seen the same storm track pattern. Hopefully, we can start to see some change from this next few weeks and beyond. So I am fairly sure in this all or nothing regime since 1994 that NYC will need to return to KU storm tracks soon to get the snowfall back over 20” before we finish the 2020s decade. Since it’s unlikely the colder climate of the 60s to early 90s will return with enough smaller to medium events to get close to average. In our much warmer climate NYC needs KUs for average to above average snowfall. Since we aren’t cold enough anymore to get to 25” with a bunch of smaller to medium events spread across a colder season from start to finish. It’s no coincidence that 2010 to 2018 featured the greatest concentration of KU events on record.

This goes towards what I said yesterday, that we need coastal storms, NYC is particularly sensitive to storm track.  A place like DC can get to normal snowfall without them but we cannot.  Without coastal storms, we will either have a miss to the south and get cold and dry weather, or a miss to the north and get rain.  West to east storms don't normally cross near enough to us to give us a significant amount of snow.

[EastonSN+]

Thunder snow in Kansas city! 

Hoping they reach 12 inches for the first time since 1962.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Good, I'm headed there on the 18th.

Snow is most beneficial for the ski areas.

Having a coastal hugger and a mostly rain event would complete the 1980s profile of cold and dry and warm and wet lol.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This goes towards what I said yesterday, that we need coastal storms, NYC is particularly sensitive to storm track.  A place like DC can get to normal snowfall without them but we cannot.  Without coastal storms, we will either have a miss to the south and get cold and dry weather, or a miss to the north and get rain.  West to east storms don't normally cross near enough to us to give us a significant amount of snow.

What's hilarious is my childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland is going to do great with respect to average snowfall once again this year. Even they are doing better than us compared to average.

[SACRUS]

28 / 9 off a low of 25.   Cold / windy (Tue / Thu) the main story here through Thursday, 35 miles south (south of i-195) moderate to heavy snow Monday.  Tracking underway for a forecasted storm between the 10/12th.  Cold air in place now all thats needed is the track to cooperate.  Overall cold till the 20th, unless an inland storm , then cold rebuilds for the final week to 10 days.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1993)
NYC: 64 (1993)
LGA: 64 (1950)
JFK: 62 (1993)


Lows:

EWR: 8 (1996)  ahead of the blizzard
NYC: -4 (1904)
LGA: 9 (1968)
JFK: 9 (2018)

 

Historical:

 

1835 - It was a record cold morning in the eastern U.S. The mercury at the Yale Campus in New Haven CT plunged to 23 degrees below zero, and reached 40 below in the Berkshire Hills of Connecticut. (David Ludlum)

 

1880: Snow began falling in Seattle, Washington, and would continue for much of the week. When it was over, more than 5 feet of snow was recorded.

1884: One of only two days in history during which the temperature at Louisville, Kentucky, never rose above zero. The low was 20 degrees below, with a high of 1 below zero.

1888: Snowfall amounts of 3.5 to 5 inches fell over Sacramento, California. The heaviest snow in recent history was two inches on February 4-5th in 1976. Click the link for a newspaper article from the Sacramento Daily Union, published on Jan 6th, 1888.

 

1892: From the History of Fayetteville, Georgia, "Another traumatic event occurred in Fayetteville on the evening of January 5, 1892, about six o'clock in the evening. A terrible tornado or cyclone struck the town of Fayetteville just as many had sat down for dinner. The storm killed three people and injured many more as its raging force destroyed numerous residences, outbuildings, and structures, including the academy, as well as killing abundant livestock. The event was written about as far away as Savannah."

1904 - Bitterly cold air gripped the northeastern U.S. Morning lows of -42 degrees at Smethport PA and -34 at River Vale NJ established state records. (The Weather Channel)

1913 - The temperature at the east portal to Strawberry Tunnel reached 50 degrees below zero to tie the record established at Woodruff on February 6, 1899. (David Ludlum)

 

1962: Two tornadoes, about 100 yards apart and each making paths about 100 yards wide, followed parallel paths from southeast to northwest through the edge of the Crestview, Florida's residential area. These tornadoes killed one and injured 30 others.

1982 - A three day rainstorm in the San Francisco area finally came to an end. Marin County and Cruz County were drenched with up to 25 inches of rain, and the Sierra Nevada Range was buried under four to eight feet of snow. The storm claimed at least 36 lives, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. (Storm Data)

1987 - A massive winter storm spread heavy snow from the southwestern U.S. into the Rockies. In Utah, the Alta ski resort reported a storm total of 42 inches of snow. Winds gusted to 64 mph at Albuquerque NM. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms helped produce heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Snow fell at the rate of four to five inches per hour, and snowfall totals ranged up to 69 inches at Highmarket NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A strong Pacific cold front produced heavy snow and high winds in Nevada. Winds gusted to 80 mph north of Reno, while up to two feet of snow blanketed the Lake Tahoe ski area. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Central Gulf Coast Region. New Orleans, LA, was drenched with 4.05 inches of rain in 24 hours. An overnight storm blanketed the mountains of northern Utah with up to eleven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs and 0z eps are offshore 

6z Euro and eps phases later

We probably need to lose that low over the Rockies and Plains on the EPS and GEFS mean which is acting as a kicker to have a shot here. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

Have a hard time seeing this not far offshore at the moment, positive titled trough with a late or missed phase as of now

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We probably need to lose that low over the Rockies and Plains on the EPS and GEFS mean which is acting as a kicker to have a shot here. 
 

 

IMO no way in hell is next weekend a cutter or inland runner/hugger. The risk is OTS. If I’m wrong tear me apart…..

[steve392]

Light flurries in Mahwah, NJ atm.

[SnoSki14]

Seeing all these disappointments over the last few years really makes me appreciate the epic snow pattern of the 2000s and 2010s. 

I'm sure we'll eventually get a nice big snowstorm but it's going to take a lot of work.

And we still have time before the CC warming destroys our hopes. Just look at DC with their upcoming storm. 

[SACRUS]

 

[SnowGoose69]

In other news GEFS again trying to revert to a La Nina pattern, again the EPS/GEPS do not want to fully do it.  If again in 5-6 days we start seeing the ensembles keeping the PNA positive again it'll be getting near time to declare this an inverse 18-19 or 23-24 where signs of whatever the background ENSO are keep showing in the long range and never happen

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We probably need to lose that low over the Rockies and Plains on the EPS and GEFS mean which is acting as a kicker to have a shot here. 
 

 

If we do not lose that low, would a less intense low work as well?

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead idea:

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO no way in hell is next weekend a cutter or inland runner/hugger. The risk is OTS. If I’m wrong tear me apart…..

I still think this is an AL/MS/GA snow event and thats basically it and I've felt that for a few days if it ejected, even there though the cold air largely escapes in time so might only be parts of TN/SC that really see notable snow from it.  

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In other news GEFS again trying to revert to a La Nina pattern, again the EPS/GEPS do not want to fully do it.  If again in 5-6 days we start seeing the ensembles keeping the PNA positive again it'll be getting near time to declare this an inverse 18-19 or 23-24 where signs of whatever the background ENSO are keep showing in the long range and never happen

If we do get the RNA, one difference as compared to last two years is that it does not look at this time that the trough would be too far west into far south into Baja. Delicate balance as we do not want a grinder effect.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we do get the RNA, one difference as compared to last two years is that it does not look at this time that the trough would be too far west into far south into Baja. Delicate balance as we do not want a grinder effect.

I absolutely believe we see -PNA/RNA at the end of the month. The 2 questions are 1) how strong of a -PNA? (which you just said) and 2) is there going to be legit west-based -NAO blocking to somewhat tame the SE ridging? 

[nycwinter]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

IMO no way in hell is next weekend a cutter or inland runner/hugger. The risk is OTS. If I’m wrong tear me apart…..

has snowman19 ever made a positive post about a potential winter storm it is very strange with a name as snowman he is anti snowstorm..

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

has snowman19 ever made a positive post about a potential winter storm it is very strange with a name as snowman he is anti snowstorm..

No

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we do get the RNA, one difference as compared to last two years is that it does not look at this time that the trough would be too far west into far south into Baja. Delicate balance as we do not want a grinder effect.

Wouldn't be a bad look if it materialized

[WX-PA]

not once ..he's here to irritate snow lovers and as you can tell he does a great job.