LibertyBell Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:19 PM, Stormlover74 said: Not sure. I don't like seeing the gfs hugging since it often times with come nw with time Dec 89 of course formed too close to the coast and flooded us with warm air and we shot up from 28 to 40 in minutes Expand How did December 1989 bust so badly in a historically cold pattern? I remember rain and thunderstorms instead of our forecast heavy snow. Did DC and Boston both get a lot of snow from that? This came months after am equally bad bust in the opposite direction-- February 1989. Both were forecast for 6-8 inches we got virga in one and rain and thunderstorms in the other lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On the gefs the 50/50 low to the east is what we need to keep this from hugging too much or cutting. Something to watch. I kind of see what Chuck is saying about the nao when looking at Greenland. However that's definitely a negative AO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Euro at 144 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:27 PM, MJO812 said: Euro at 144 Expand Much slower than the GFS..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:32 PM, jdj5211 said: Much slower than the GFS..... Expand Looks really good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:24 PM, EastonSN+ said: On the gefs the 50/50 low to the east is what we need to keep this from hugging too much or cutting. Something to watch. I kind of see what Chuck is saying about the nao when looking at Greenland. However that's definitely a negative AO. Expand That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-countour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. Expand Nah. Too many other factors keeping the LP from going right over the city and even it does theres enough dynamics to make it mostly snow. Taint maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. Expand The 50 50 low says otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 The next week on this forum would make an incredible case study in psychology. Should be *fun* to watch. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 11:53 PM, cleetussnow said: Nah. Too many other factors keeping the LP from going right over the city and even it does theres enough dynamics to make it mostly snow. Taint maybe Expand I think the problem is that the cold air might be getting cut off in Canada. The -NAO block is lifting out, and the +WPO ridge may extend south. The hope is that cold air from before holds, but usually when something is 7-8 days out those kind of things don't hold with a changing Pacific pattern.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2025 at 11:21 PM, LibertyBell said: How did December 1989 bust so badly in a historically cold pattern? I remember rain and thunderstorms instead of our forecast heavy snow. Did DC and Boston both get a lot of snow from that? This came months after am equally bad bust in the opposite direction-- February 1989. Both were forecast for 6-8 inches we got virga in one and rain and thunderstorms in the other lol. Expand Hard to find much info on that storm since most of the focus was on the huge se storm before Christmas. It does say Boston got 3 DC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2025 at 11:49 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. Expand I disagree. A reasonable worst-case would entail a rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow event. Since 1950, New York City saw five measurable precipitation cases in January under the following criteria (which would apply for January 11th based on the latest guidance and today's AO value): - Negative AO (-2.000 to -0.001) - PNA > 0 - NAO -0.25 or below - Minimum AO value 7 or fewer days prior to the event: -3.000 or below Four of the five (80%) measurable precipitation events also had measurable snow. Two (40%) were all snow events. Four (80%) had temperatures that spent time in the 20s or teens. Only a single event with 0.05" precipitation saw no snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2025 at 9:46 PM, LibertyBell said: all those places have way more ways of getting snow than this area does. Expand Midatlantic? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2025 at 11:27 PM, MJO812 said: Euro at 144 Expand Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:30 AM, SACRUS said: Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change? Expand Last fall With the update 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:30 AM, SACRUS said: Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change? Expand And now 0z and 12z goes out to 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:17 AM, Stormlover74 said: Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here Expand Just missed. Buried the energy in the SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:17 AM, Stormlover74 said: Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here Expand Without the phase the trough is positively tilted and would head out to sea. There's a kicker trough right behind it too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:21 AM, jm1220 said: Without the phase the trough is positively tilted and would head out to sea. There's a kicker trough right behind it too. Expand Another storm behind it. This time it might phase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:22 AM, MJO812 said: Another storm behind it. This time it might phase. Expand Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:19 AM, greenmtnwx said: Midatlantic? No. Expand Oh yes they do. the southern storm track favors them it's happened time and again there are two primary storm tracks, one to the south and one to the north, NYC is between the two tracks. You need a coastal to get the higher totals around here because west-east storm tracks don't usually cut it for this region it's not some fluke, it's actually rather common but it used to be much more common in the past. It almost always happens in January when the risk of suppression is the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 12:02 AM, Stormlover74 said: Hard to find much info on that storm since most of the focus was on the huge se storm before Christmas. It does say Boston got 3 DC 1 Expand it seems like suppression is common in some of our lowest snowfall winters areas to our south also got more snow than us in 1972-73 and 2001-02 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The Euro shows a MECS at day 7 and no one here is acknowledging it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Coastal hugger after a suppressed storm lol. Horrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:47 AM, LVblizzard said: The Euro shows a MECS at day 7 and no one here is acknowledging it? Expand 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 6:30 AM, David-LI said: Expand I so far can only access these maps and while I would think it would be snow to rain to snow in NYC and on LI I'm not sure and reserve judgment until I see more maps in the morning. It is also again an extremely fast mover so I'm not sure on snow amounts anywhere. Winds on LI and southeastern NE blowing out of the e-se according to this map. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025010500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 7:31 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: I so far can only access these maps and while I would think it would be snow to rain to snow in NYC and on LI I'm not sure and reserve judgment until I see more maps in the morning. It is also again an extremely fast mover so I'm not sure on snow amounts anywhere. Winds on LI and southeastern NE blowing out of the e-se according to this map. WX/PT https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025010500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png Expand More about this though this still based on the map above. The cold air sources antecedent and incoming HP are not in a good position to support an all-snowstorm in coastal sections of NYC. That doesn't mean that they won't be only that on this map, they're not. It could and almost certainly will change for the better or the worse. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:03 AM, donsutherland1 said: I disagree. A reasonable worst-case would entail a rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow event. Since 1950, New York City saw five measurable precipitation cases in January under the following criteria (which would apply for January 11th based on the latest guidance and today's AO value): - Negative AO (-2.000 to -0.001) - PNA > 0 - NAO -0.25 or below - Minimum AO value 7 or fewer days prior to the event: -3.000 or below Four of the five (80%) measurable precipitation events also had measurable snow. Two (40%) were all snow events. Four (80%) had temperatures that spent time in the 20s or teens. Only a single event with 0.05" precipitation saw no snow. Expand Good research. The 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed off on the 3-contour +WPO pattern it was showing earlier today. Keeps a little more of a -NAO ridge in over the top too. This one is actually the "coming out of strong -NAO" storm, and it looks like it has a great 50/50 low. I'm not sold on it not mixing though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now