January 2025

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not sure. I don't like seeing the gfs hugging since it often times with come nw with time 

Dec 89 of course formed too close to the coast and flooded us with warm air and we shot up from 28 to 40 in minutes

How did December 1989 bust so badly in a historically cold pattern?

I remember rain and thunderstorms instead of our forecast heavy snow.

Did DC and Boston both get a lot of snow from that?

This came months after am equally bad bust in the opposite direction-- February 1989.

Both were forecast for 6-8 inches we got virga in one and rain and thunderstorms in the other lol.

[EastonSN+]

On the gefs the 50/50 low to the east is what we need to keep this from hugging too much or cutting. Something to watch. I kind of see what Chuck is saying about the nao when looking at Greenland. However that's definitely a negative AO.

[MJO812]

Euro at 144

[jdj5211]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro at 144

 

Much slower than the GFS.....

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jdj5211 said:

 

Much slower than the GFS.....

Looks really good

[Stormchaserchuck1]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

On the gefs the 50/50 low to the east is what we need to keep this from hugging too much or cutting. Something to watch. I kind of see what Chuck is saying about the nao when looking at Greenland. However that's definitely a negative AO.

That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. 

[cleetussnow]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-countour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. 

Nah.  Too many other factors keeping the LP from going right over the city and even it does theres enough dynamics to make it mostly snow.  Taint maybe

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. 

The 50 50 low says otherwise 

[BoulderWX]

The next week on this forum would make an incredible case study in psychology. Should be *fun* to watch. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Nah.  Too many other factors keeping the LP from going right over the city and even it does theres enough dynamics to make it mostly snow.  Taint maybe

I think the problem is that the cold air might be getting cut off in Canada. The -NAO block is lifting out, and the +WPO ridge may extend south. The hope is that cold air from before holds, but usually when something is 7-8 days out those kind of things don't hold with a changing Pacific pattern.. 

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How did December 1989 bust so badly in a historically cold pattern?

I remember rain and thunderstorms instead of our forecast heavy snow.

Did DC and Boston both get a lot of snow from that?

This came months after am equally bad bust in the opposite direction-- February 1989.

Both were forecast for 6-8 inches we got virga in one and rain and thunderstorms in the other lol.

Hard to find much info on that storm since most of the focus was on the huge se storm before Christmas. It does say Boston got 3 DC 1

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That +WPO is underestimated at this time.. It usually trends warmer, unless that 3-contour trough over the Bering Strait backs off. I see the 11th as a rainstorm threat for NYC. 

I disagree. A reasonable worst-case would entail a rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow event.

Since 1950, New York City saw five measurable precipitation cases in January under the following criteria (which would apply for January 11th based on the latest guidance and today's AO value):

- Negative AO (-2.000 to -0.001)
- PNA > 0
- NAO -0.25 or below
- Minimum AO value 7 or fewer days prior to the event: -3.000 or below

Four of the five (80%) measurable precipitation events also had measurable snow. Two (40%) were all snow events. Four (80%) had temperatures that spent time in the 20s or teens.
Only a single event with 0.05" precipitation saw no snow.

 

[greenmtnwx]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

all those places have way more ways of getting snow than this area does.

 

Midatlantic? No.

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Euro at 144

Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change?

[Allsnow]

19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change?

Last fall With the update 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Didnt realize the 06Z and 18Z ECM went beyond 90H. When did that change?

And now 0z and 12z goes out to 360.

[Stormlover74]

Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here 

Just missed. Buried the energy in the SW.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Snow down to Atlanta and SC on the gfs Friday. A miss up here 

Without the phase the trough is positively tilted and would head out to sea. There's a kicker trough right behind it too.

[MJO812]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Without the phase the trough is positively tilted and would head out to sea. There's a kicker trough right behind it too.

Another storm behind it.  This time it might phase.

[Nibor]

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another storm behind it.  This time it might phase.

Nope

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Midatlantic? No.

Oh yes they do.

the southern storm track favors them

it's happened time and again

there are two primary storm tracks, one to the south and one to the north, NYC is between the two tracks.  You need a coastal to get the higher totals around here because west-east storm tracks don't usually cut it for this region

it's not some fluke, it's actually rather common but it used to be much more common in the past.

It almost always happens in January when the risk of suppression is the greatest.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hard to find much info on that storm since most of the focus was on the huge se storm before Christmas. It does say Boston got 3 DC 1

it seems like suppression is common in some of our lowest snowfall winters

areas to our south also got more snow than us in 1972-73 and 2001-02

 

[LVblizzard]

The Euro shows a MECS at day 7 and no one here is acknowledging it?

[psv88]

Coastal hugger after a suppressed storm lol. Horrible 

[David-LI]

41 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The Euro shows a MECS at day 7 and no one here is acknowledging it?

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

56 minutes ago, David-LI said:

 

I so far can only access these maps and while I would think it would be snow to rain to snow in NYC and on LI I'm not sure and reserve judgment until I see more maps in the morning. It is also again an extremely fast mover so I'm not sure on snow amounts anywhere. Winds on LI and southeastern NE blowing out of the e-se according to this map.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025010500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

10 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I so far can only access these maps and while I would think it would be snow to rain to snow in NYC and on LI I'm not sure and reserve judgment until I see more maps in the morning. It is also again an extremely fast mover so I'm not sure on snow amounts anywhere. Winds on LI and southeastern NE blowing out of the e-se according to this map.

WX/PT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2025010500/ec-fast_z500_mslp_us_8.png

 

More about this though this still based on the map above. The cold air sources antecedent and incoming HP are not in a good position to support an all-snowstorm in coastal sections of NYC. That doesn't mean that they won't be only that on this map, they're not. It could and almost certainly will change for the better or the worse.

WX/PT

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I disagree. A reasonable worst-case would entail a rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow event.

Since 1950, New York City saw five measurable precipitation cases in January under the following criteria (which would apply for January 11th based on the latest guidance and today's AO value):

- Negative AO (-2.000 to -0.001)
- PNA > 0
- NAO -0.25 or below
- Minimum AO value 7 or fewer days prior to the event: -3.000 or below

Four of the five (80%) measurable precipitation events also had measurable snow. Two (40%) were all snow events. Four (80%) had temperatures that spent time in the 20s or teens.
Only a single event with 0.05" precipitation saw no snow.

 

Good research. The 18z and 00z GFS ensembles backed off on the 3-contour +WPO pattern it was showing earlier today. Keeps a little more of a -NAO ridge in over the top too. This one is actually the "coming out of strong -NAO" storm, and it looks like it has a great 50/50 low. I'm not sold on it not mixing though..