January 2025

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Is it the same scale as the gfs? Weaker stronger?

It is north of our latitude but we still get some snow. The lakes low (pita) will be a feature that is a thorn in the setup. 
 

active op runs as the block decays. Hopefully we get something 

[pstar3182]

So, next Sunday seems like a good this to obsess over? 

[MJO812]

Just now, pstar3182 said:

So, next Sunday seems like a good this to obsess over? 

Saturday 

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The continuing overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet doesn’t have anything to do with luck as it’s a function of the pattern we have been in for years.

Enough with that lol. New England has gotten snow, the midwest, ohio valley and now midatlantic. This one just a little suppressed.

[brooklynwx99]

definitely more of a phasing signal from the EPS over the last few runs as we enter its wheelhouse

[MJO812]

Big signal on the eps

[Allsnow]

@jm1220 Dallas snow mean on EPS is 6 haha

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I’m sure it’ll be all over social media all day. 

[Yanksfan]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big signal on the eps

Wow. You can argue the EPS is just as ominous as what the GFS is showing next weekend. Not getting sucked in just yet; let’s give it a few days. The raging Pacific Jet concerns me that it could put the kabosh on it.

[dseagull]

Im in!  Lock it up.  This roller Coaster sucks anyway.   

[Allsnow]

12z ensembles rebuilding the nao and epo for mid month 

[Dark Star]

33 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Enough with that lol. New England has gotten snow, the midwest, ohio valley and now midatlantic. This one just a little suppressed.

The Northern Pacific stream has been a thorn in the greater NYC metro area's winters.  It's affect this winter has been minimal.  But until we see a nice spillover of cold air straight down across the pole into eastern Canada, winters will be warmer, less snow (in general).

[Utah346]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Thats like an offer to the Friend Zone 

[jdj5211]

I'd give up the next 3 winters for that map to verify exactly as displayed lol.....

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

The Northern Pacific stream has been a thorn in the greater NYC metro area's winters.  It's affect this winter has been minimal.  But until we see a nice spillover of cold air straight down across the pole into eastern Canada, winters will be warmer, less snow (in general).

I just did a deep dive into the last five decades for Central Park snowfall against the last 4 years to see how our average will not drop but move toward normal. My theory is that although we will lose snow events we will compensate with more fuel from coastal storms and any storm that's cold enough to snow. 

One comparison would be the frigid 1970s where our average snowfall for the 10-year period was a mere 21.25 inches. Compare that to the much warmer 1990s where the snowfall average was 24.73. The warmer decade ended with more snow even though the majority fell in three seasons.

The least amount fell in the '80s at 19.74 inches.

The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was a mere 21.90667 inches.

So far for this decade our average is 16.575 and we have five more years to go after this year. This year is looking like a dud however in this new environment all it takes is for one coastal to drop 18 inches and it changes the landscape of the entire winter. 

It wouldn't take much to raise our snowfall average for this decade from 16.575 to 21.90667 of the 30-year period from 1970 through 1999. 

I am throwing out 2000 through 2019 as each decades average was 31.47 and 33.23. this time frame aligns better with 1950 through 1969 where there are multiple KU events just like the last two decades and that is a better comparison for those two snowfall average periods.

If we want to include the last two decades from 1970 through last year the average snowfall was 25.37963. 

I think that it is very plausible that over a 10-year period we will average normal snowfall in the same way the 1990s which had three average to above average snowfall seasons outperformed the much colder '70s and much more average 80s. 

I will continue to keep track

[EastonSN+]

Okay couldn't help myself I had to compare 1950 through 1969 against 2000 through 2019. 

I think we can all agree that 1950 through 1969 was a colder period than 2000 through 2019.

Even though 1950 through 1969 was much colder 2000 through 2019 averaged more snowfall. 

The average snowfall for 50 through 69 was 26.62. the average snowfall for 2000 through 2019 was 32.35. again another example of how warmer and more volatility is compensating for warming temperatures. 

I get that at some point if we continue to warm we will reach a tipping point and drop, I just don't think we are there yet or at least I don't have enough evidence.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I’d rather have some 2” events with cold and staying power than two feet 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Got the Kuchera?  I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. 

I see I am in the bullseye.  That concerns me.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, qg_omega said:

The pattern is horrific, one of the worst ones we have experienced in years.  Give me back last winter all day

Why? Is it because there is no record warmth to be found this winter?

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I just did a deep dive into the last five decades for Central Park snowfall against the last 4 years to see how our average will not drop but move toward normal. My theory is that although we will lose snow events we will compensate with more fuel from coastal storms and any storm that's cold enough to snow. 

One comparison would be the frigid 1970s where our average snowfall for the 10-year period was a mere 21.25 inches. Compare that to the much warmer 1990s where the snowfall average was 24.73. The warmer decade ended with more snow even though the majority fell in three seasons.

The least amount fell in the '80s at 19.74 inches.

The average snowfall for the 30-year period of 1970 through 1999 was a mere 21.90667 inches.

So far for this decade our average is 16.575 and we have five more years to go after this year. This year is looking like a dud however in this new environment all it takes is for one coastal to drop 18 inches and it changes the landscape of the entire winter. 

It wouldn't take much to raise our snowfall average for this decade from 16.575 to 21.90667 of the 30-year period from 1970 through 1999. 

I am throwing out 2000 through 2019 as each decades average was 31.47 and 33.23. this time frame aligns better with 1950 through 1969 where there are multiple KU events just like the last two decades and that is a better comparison for those two snowfall average periods.

If we want to include the last two decades from 1970 through last year the average snowfall was 25.37963. 

I think that it is very plausible that over a 10-year period we will average normal snowfall in the same way the 1990s which had three average to above average snowfall seasons outperformed the much colder '70s and much more average 80s. 

I will continue to keep track

NYC needs to shift the storm track back to benchmark KU events to get the decadal snowfall average over 20”. The first 5 years of the 2020s average of 14.2” is mainly the result of the dominant Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Plus the much warmer winters we have experiencing. So a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream isn’t going to get the job done. NYC was only able to get snowfall seasons above 20” without KUs when the climate was much colder. Since it was so cold that there were frequent enough nickel and dime events to break even. Since the 1990s its been all about KUs for average to above average snowfall. If we can shift the storm track back to benchmark this winter and the next 4, then we could get the snowfall back up above 20”. So here’s hoping that we can start seeing some benchmark tracks return the next several weeks.

Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I’d rather have some 2” events with cold and staying power than two feet 

To each their own.  But there is a high ceiling for next weekend and if thats comes in big I don’t care about the rest of winter.  

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Got the Kuchera?  I am sure we’ll do better than the standard 10:1. 

I see I am in the bullseye.  That concerns me.

 

[dmillz25]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

20” difference between mmu and nyc lmao

[psv88]

Beautiful day to take the dogs to the beach. Love winter days like today. Too bad I can’t post photos 

[qg_omega]

13 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Why? Is it because there is no record warmth to be found this winter?

??? We had record warmth a few days ago

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to shift the storm track back to benchmark KU events to get the decadal snowfall average over 20”. The first 5 years of the 2020s average of 14.2” is mainly the result of the dominant Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Plus the much warmer winters we have experiencing. So a continuation of the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream isn’t going to get the job done. NYC was only able to get snowfall seasons above 20” without KUs when the climate was much colder. Since it was so cold that there were frequent enough nickel and dime events to break even. Since the 1990s its been all about KUs for average to above average snowfall. If we can shift the storm track back to benchmark this winter and the next 4, then we could get the snowfall back up above 20”. So here’s hoping that we can start seeing some benchmark tracks return the next several weeks.

Monthly Total Snowfall for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	T	2.6	4.4	7.1	0.1	T	14.2
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.3	5.2	T	0.0	7.5
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.2	0.1	0.0	2.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	15.3	2.0	0.4	0.0	17.9
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	10.5	2.1	26.0	T	0.0	38.6
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	2.5	2.3	T	T	T	4.8

 

 

 

For this decade I was using the four-year period starting with 2000 2021 which is what the table that's provided by the national weather service starts with. Seems they go from 0 for each decade instead of 9.

We could start from 2018 2019 which would yield an average of 15.2667. time will tell however it is still early in the grand scheme of things.

[MJO812]

Just now, qg_omega said:

??? We had record warmth a few days ago

We did ?

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

??? We had record warmth a few days ago

Record?  Wha?  

[MJO812]

[BoulderWX]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Best clown map of the season! Will only change 28 times between now and next Saturday