January 2025

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Stop trolling. It's solidly BN. 

This is actually an improvement from some of the things this user posted during the fall. As recently as November 16, this user was posting this:

Record warmth looks likely to start December 

[Snowlover11]

flurrying in yonkers.

[Snowlover11]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

flurrying in yonkers.

Edit Heavy Snow for a good 2-3 minutes coated the cars briefly.

[Allsnow]

Dry and cold 

 

Buckle up 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Dry and cold 

 

Buckle up 

 I just can't believe that we will not see snow in this upcoming pattern . I guess patience is key. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 I just can't believe that we will not see snow in this upcoming pattern . I guess patience is key. 

Yea, just be it’s be patient for a few years 

[wdrag]

Not sure how much folks are checking tomorrow.  Monitor modeling s of I78...

 

Tomorrow 2PM-8PM from Philly including southern NJ, MD , southeast PA south of Allentown. Travel impacting briefly moderate to heavy snow showers coating many untreated surfaces and making for a possibly long slippery commute. Amounts will be variable...generally near 1/2" but potential for a band of 1-2". The initial snowfall may melt on pavement as temps cool back to freezing and also mixed with sleet.  SPC HREF,  HRRR and many models have this.  A near miss for us but flurries possible.

Also streaks of snow showers may move into NY metro near sunset today?

[MJO812]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yea, just be it’s be patient for a few years 

This is the best pattern forecasted in years. There is no way that we come out with 0.

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 I just can't believe that we will not see snow in this upcoming pattern . I guess patience is key. 

I hate to say it but we were due for a cold and dry winter.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yea, just be it’s be patient for a few years 

Lol in 1970 they had to be patient for 30 years.

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is the best pattern forecasted in years. There is no way that we come out with 0.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

I have to be honest I feel good for the Mid-Atlantic they deserve one.

[North and West]

 I just can't believe that we will not see snow in this upcoming pattern . I guess patience is key. 

And that’s how you get averages!


.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I have to be honest I feel good for the Mid-Atlantic they deserve one.

We deserve it

 

[North and West]

This is the best pattern forecasted in years. There is no way that we come out with 0.

A few years ago (pre-pandemic), I had a nice snowstorm here a day or two after it was in the 70s or so. Mother Nature is a fickle lady.


.

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

The 1980’s called, they want their winter back…

[eduggs]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is the best pattern forecasted in years. There is no way that we come out with 0.

Every day presents a new configuration of weather features. It's not like we have a perfect standing wave jetstream creating a static "pattern." Snow doesn't come from "patterns." At the local scale, snow is loosely correlated with a set of global ocean-atmosphere-climate indices that are themselves somewhat vaguely defined.

It is the nuances of the features, their evolution, and interactions; the details... that determine whether we get snow. It's the "pattern" obsession that leads to so much disappointment. Especially for the people who use long range 500mb height anomalies to try to sniff out favorable periods. Those charts always look better than reality because of the averaging effect that smooths out the critical details. They can sometimes portend temperature trends, but are much less useful for long range snow prediction.

Most of us are still in the game for Monday.

[forkyfork]

47 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol in 1970 they had to be patient for 30 years.

january 1971 was -6.8 at central park with 11.4" of snow

[forkyfork]

and one of our greatest blizzards of all time happened in 1978. some here keep trying to paint the decades prior to 2000 as a snowless hellscape and that just isn't true

[bluewave]

41 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol in 1970 they had to be patient for 30 years.

From 69-70 to 92-93 NYC had 12 seasons when the snowfall was within 5” of average. Beginning in 93-94 to 22-23 there were only 3 seasons within 5” or normal. So our seasons have become all or nothing in the last 30 years with most seasons well above or well below average. As the climate continues to warm with these challenging storm tracks for snow, the below average snowfall seasons eventually win out. So unless we see a marked improvement in the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track pattern by 2030, the NYC long term average will eventually drop to below 20”.

[MJO812]

Bump north please 

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

and one of our greatest blizzards of all time happened in 1978. some here keep trying to paint the decades prior to 2000 as a snowless hellscape and that just isn't true

The reason 1970 through 99 are referenced is due to the fact that it's set between two epic snowfall periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018. Since 2018 we have had 1 above average snowfall winter, excluding this winter, 1 in 6 years. 2 years less than 50% of average. 70 through 99 had 4 (correcting my mistake before of 5) above average snowfall Winters, 11 of which were less than 50% of average (30-year period). 

My mistake if I painted a picture of absolutely no snow at all in that 30-year period, I am merely trying to give perspective to posters who have not lived like I did through the '80s and '90s which were a far, far cry from 2000 through 2018. 2000 through 2018, and for that matter 55 through 69, skewed snowfall averages as both periods had multiple KU events and above average snowfall winters in a short period as opposed to 70 through 99 which only had a handful, I believe there were only 6, widespread ku's in that 30-year period.

I do not focus on temperatures at all as long as it's cold enough to snow. That being said I also don't want to paint the '80s as a frigid wasteland as I live through it and I remember multiple days in Winter which were very very warm, and was a time period where attention was pointed to global warming. Yes the early '80s did have some extremely cold periods and one month of December 1989 in an otherwise warm winter. I think we all already know the 90s were very warm.

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

From 69-70 to 92-93 NYC had 12 seasons when the snowfall was within 5” of average. Beginning in 93-94 to 22-23 there were only 3 seasons within 5” or normal. So our seasons have become all or nothing in the last 30 years with most seasons well above or well below average. As the climate continues to warm with these challenging storm tracks for snow, the below average snowfall seasons eventually win out. So unless we see a marked improvement in the cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm track pattern by 2030, the NYC long term average will eventually drop to below 20”.

I do agree that volatility seems to have increased, which hopefully can work in our favor when we do have an above average winter like 3 years ago. I thought a winter like this would have been mitigated by The increased ridging in the southeast as well as the extremely warm ocean temperatures, however we may not have gotten to that point yet. 

If we take 95/96, our snowfall would have arguably been better if the same setup occurred today as there would be a lot less virga, offsetting the warmer temperatures. 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The reason 1970 through 99 are referenced is due to the fact that it's set between two epic snowfall periods of 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018. Since 2018 we have had 1 above average snowfall winter, excluding this winter, 1 in 6 years. 2 years less than 50% of average. 70 through 99 had 4 (correcting my mistake before of 5) above average snowfall Winters, 11 of which were less than 50% of average (30-year period). 

My mistake if I painted a picture of absolutely no snow at all in that 30-year period, I am merely trying to give perspective to posters who have not lived like I did through the '80s and '90s which were a far, far cry from 2000 through 2018. 2000 through 2018, and for that matter 55 through 69, skewed snowfall averages as both periods had multiple KU events and above average snowfall winters in a short period as opposed to 70 through 99 which only had a handful, I believe there were only 6, widespread ku's in that 30-year period.

I do not focus on temperatures at all as long as it's cold enough to snow. That being said I also don't want to paint the '80s as a frigid wasteland as I live through it and I remember multiple days in Winter which were very very warm, and was a time period where attention was pointed to global warming. Yes the early '80s did have some extremely cold periods and one month of December 1989 in an otherwise warm winter. I think we all already know the 90s were very warm.

The worst period for me growing up was 89 to 92. Between Feb 89, dec 89 and the warm winters that followed even though it snowed it never felt like winter as the snow would be gone in a couple days. In fact it felt like those days were gone until 93 suddenly changed that with the March blizzard first and then the epic winter that followed

[Eduardo]

50 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

and one of our greatest blizzards of all time happened in 1978. some here keep trying to paint the decades prior to 2000 as a snowless hellscape and that just isn't true

Some diamonds in the rough for sure.  I wasn’t around yet, but the stats make the “rough” part of that seem pretty…rough, no?

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The worst period for me growing up was 89 to 92. Between Feb 89, dec 89 and the warm winters that followed even though it snowed it never felt like winter as the snow would be gone in a couple days. In fact it felt like those days were gone until 93 suddenly changed that with the March blizzard first and then the epic winter that followed

24.5 inches of snow fell in Central Park the winter of 92/93, which felt like a lot more given the prior few years lol. The March 93 storm was my third favorite of all time, even though my town only ended up with 11.5 inches of snow encased in ice. Nothing better than a megalopolis snowstorm media frenzy.

[EastonSN+]

Mjo going into the cod. Will be interesting to see what transpires with this mjo look if it verifies. 

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

24.5 inches of snow fell in Central Park the winter of 92/93, which felt like a lot more given the prior few years lol. The March 93 storm was my third favorite of all time, even though my town only ended up with 11.5 inches of snow encased in ice. Nothing better than a megalopolis snowstorm media frenzy.

Compared to how commonplace 12" storms felt in the 2000s that storm was truly a different animal from anything we'd seen in so many years. We were so close to an 18-24" area wide blizzard

 

The media did go crazy with that one. I remember the EBS actually being used for the first time in forever 

[bluewave]

13 hours ago, Rjay said:

But probably cold enough for snow and that's all that matters on these forums

I hear what you are saying. But storm tracks in January during the last decade have been more important than average temperatures for snow. Provided that the NYC monthly average doesn’t get above 40°.

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall since 2015

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°….T

2022….30.3°….15.3”

2021….34.8°….2.1”

2020….39.1°….2.3”

2019…..32.5°….1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°….16.9”
 

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I hear what you are saying. But storm tracks in January during the last decade have been more important than average temperatures for snow. Provided that the NYC monthly average doesn’t get above 40°.

NYC January average temperatures and snowfall since 2015

2024….37.0°….2.3”

2023….43.5°….T

2022….30.3°….15.3”

2021….34.8°….2.1”

2020….39.1°….2.3”

2019…..32.5°….1.1”

2018….31.7°….11.2”

2017….38.0°…7.9”

2016….34.5°…27.9”

2015….29.9°….16.9”
 

 

2015, 2018 and 2022 all were cold months. 2018 is skewed because we warmed so much in the 2nd half of the month.