bluewave Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 8:42 PM, qg_omega said: Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible Expand Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January. Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years 2024….37.0°….2.3” 2023….43.5°…T 2022….30.3°…15.3” 2021….34.8°…2.1” 2020….39.1°…2.3” 2019….32.5°…1.1” 2018….31.7°….11.2” 2017….38.0°…7.9” 2016….34.5°…27.9” 2015….29.9°…16.9” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 7:36 PM, brooklynwx99 said: my guess the 6-7th is a weaker wave that reinforces confluence for the 8-9th. ensembles really amplify the trough for that second window Expand The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 8:42 PM, qg_omega said: Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible Expand Agreed, With the new climate we need the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:20 PM, snowman19 said: The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking Expand I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino. That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out. So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81. It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all. the pattern completely broke down after 2/10 and torched. It was not a Nina pattern though, it was just basically a raging zonal one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:29 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino. That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out. So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81. It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all. Expand Yea, this is where the lack of a juiced southern stream hurts if you are looking for phased KU’s barreling up the coast. That’s one big ingredient that will be missing. The upcoming pattern is all northern stream driven, typical -ENSO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:17 PM, bluewave said: Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January. Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years 2024….37.0°….2.3” 2023….43.5°…T 2022….30.3°…15.3” 2021….34.8°…2.1” 2020….39.1°…2.3” 2019….32.5°…1.1” 2018….31.7°….11.2” 2017….38.0°…7.9” 2016….34.5°…27.9” 2015….29.9°…16.9” Expand You have posted some great information the past few years on how warm our winters have become. I’m a firm believer with the new climate we need a cold airmass in place before anything else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:29 PM, SnowGoose69 said: I posted in the SNE thread how if you just took the a trained monkey could forecast this winter by saying where was the last cold neutral or very weak La Nina to follow a decent El Nino. That would be 80-81, 03-04 and 92-93 were warm neutral so you can basically throw them out. So far if you remove the Xmas 80 cold outbreak this winter and the next 2-3 weeks look a heck of alot like 80-81. It was pretty darn cold but could not snow at all. the pattern completely broke down after 2/10 and torched. It was not a Nina pattern though, it was just basically a raging zonal one Expand N D J F M Total 1980-81 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 19.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:17 PM, bluewave said: Storm track is more important than average temperatures for NYC snowfall in January. Since it can always snow even when it’s warm this time of year with the right storm track with the average temperatures most Januaries.The temperatures only matter on the day of the event along with the storm track. NYC January average temperatures and snowfall last 10 years 2024….37.0°….2.3” 2023….43.5°…T 2022….30.3°…15.3” 2021….34.8°…2.1” 2020….39.1°…2.3” 2019….32.5°…1.1” 2018….31.7°….11.2” 2017….38.0°…7.9” 2016….34.5°…27.9” 2015….29.9°…16.9” Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Maybe some light snow next Saturday on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Here comes the 9-10 on gfs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:42 PM, MJO812 said: Here comes the 9-10 on gfs lol Expand The 6th Storm isn't cutting as much if the storm is even for real this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 What a historic pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:49 PM, CooL said: What a historic pattern Expand Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:50 PM, MJO812 said: Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow. Expand yeah if its real - nice to talk about this far out thats about it = patience is the key word right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:50 PM, MJO812 said: Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow. Expand anyone who thinks cold and dry or only northern stream is gonna bust. Massive NAO block within the arctic height field 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:52 PM, NEG NAO said: yeah if its real - nice to talk about over 2 weeks out thats about it = patience is the key word right now Expand Definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:54 PM, MJO812 said: Definitely Expand We will post the 0Z snow map too....its too bad all the models can't agree on individual storms this far out as they did with the coming cold blast Jan 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:55 PM, NEG NAO said: We will post the 0Z snow map too.... Expand Caution is required but everything is starting to line up for a favorable pattern which we haven't seen in years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Gfs gets really cold after the huge snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 I haven’t been this excited in a long time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 It was a matter of time before one of the global OPs had a big solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 10:50 PM, MJO812 said: Can you say Blizzard for the 8th-9th on the gfs ? Wow. Expand The 1/8-9 wave seems to show the best potential. The second wave in these setups often has the best amplification and maybe the 1/6 wave can build confluence behind it to force a better track. I'm never a fan at our latitude of relying on SWFEs for anything which 1/6 looks more like. That one's more a setup for N PA to SNE and north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 11:01 PM, SnoSki14 said: GFS OP is how you deliver in this pattern Expand And the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 11:02 PM, jm1220 said: The 1/8-9 wave seems to show the best potential. The second wave in these setups often has the best amplification and maybe the 1/6 wave can build confluence behind it to force a better track. I'm never a fan at our latitude of relying on SWFEs for anything which 1/6 looks more like. That one's more a setup for N PA to SNE and north. Expand The 1/6 wave trended more favorable for us also. We should also watch that along with some snow for the 4th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 11:00 PM, Nibor said: It was a matter of time before one of the global OPs had a big solution like that. Expand and of course it was the 18Z - lets get a few runs in a row of consensus of individual and multiple model ops and ensembles. We all remember the Boxing Day 2010 Blizzard questions were still being asked within 2 days of the event of exactly what the outcome would be...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 9:20 PM, snowman19 said: The only real issue I see at least for any KU events is the lack of a southern stream/STJ involvement for phasing. As is typical for -ENSO, the STJ is weak and inactive. If you are looking for true phased bombs up the coast, that’s not what you want to see. That said, there is certainly still chances for northern branch shortwaves to amp and produce snowstorms if timed correctly with the blocking Expand sure, the STJ isn’t roaring, but it’s definitely there. can see the jet dipping off the coast of Baja CA, so you’d be able to tap into the STJ if a vort does dig enough. the 18z GFS is a good example of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 11:04 PM, MJO812 said: The 1/6 wave trended more favorable for us also. We should also watch that along with some snow for the 4th. Expand That storm might become the 50/50 low for the next storm if we are lucky and block the HP hopefully at least 1040 in southeast Canada... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/28/2024 at 11:04 PM, MJO812 said: The 1/6 wave trended more favorable for us also. We should also watch that along with some snow for the 4th. Expand Yeah that could deliver too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 wouldn’t call the STJ inactive at all. it’s definitely there with a split flow pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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