January 2025

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Like I said earlier this week, one in three chance that the park hits zero or lower at some point this January.

[CooL]

This upcoming pattern looks like a mix of 2010 and 2014 

[Allsnow]

Bam weather doing a good job this winter with the pattern 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Bam weather doing a good job this winter with the pattern 

They are on board with everyone else for the pattern change . They were decent for December but did flop with the epic pattern they called for. I mean there were alot of people on here screaming warmth for this month . 

[SnoSki14]

If the pacific jet can relax even a little bit then pattern is loaded with potential.  Jan 5-7 then 9-11 with more afterwards.  

Unfortunately the trends this winter have been to strengthen the jet as we get closer in

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the pacific jet can relax even a little bit then pattern is loaded with potential.  Jan 5-7 then 9-11 with more afterwards.  

Unfortunately the trends this winter have been to strengthen the jet as we get closer in

Where the jet ext breaks off will determine a lot 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Our best shot at 4+ might be the storm around the 5/6th which looks like more of an overrunning type deal before rain. That’s a strong high in place ahead of the storm. Obviously we wouldn’t want the primary to get to strong or track to far west 

Euro showing 4-5 in nyc now for the 6th. 50/50 is trending stronger 

[CooL]

Classic snowstorm look on todays 12z eps 

[CooL]

Major snowstorm potential 

 

 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, CooL said:

Major snowstorm potential 

 

 

Euro and gfs op are major outliers here with the cutters.

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Our best shot at 4+ might be the storm around the 5/6th which looks like more of an overrunning type deal before rain. That’s a strong high in place ahead of the storm. Obviously we wouldn’t want the primary to get to strong or track to far west 

Maybe if you lose the primary running through the lakes and turn it into more of a SWFE event. But that would risk a scenario like the CMC has a weaker wave north and the southern stream getting suppressed. Too dominant a northern stream and you get a 1-3 or 2-4 then with mixing issues after. 

[brooklynwx99]

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

[NEG NAO]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and gfs op are major outliers here with the cutters.

fast flow and lack of strong blocking a 1028 retreating HP in Canada won't do it BUT still out of the 5-7 day range for accuracy

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

very good agreement between the three major ensembles on a MECS pattern developing... all have a -EPO, -NAO, rising PNA, a 50/50 ULL, and an elongated TPV. all have an amplifying trough over the Plains to take advantage of the setup. not really sure if it's the wave on the 6-7th or the 8-9th... ensembles have the trough really blowing up for the latter timeframe. regardless, we're getting into the timeframe where this isn't really fantasy anymore

Gefs and eps like the 6th wave . Like CooL said, get some sleep.

(Keep weenie me if it makes you feel better)

[CooL]

Insane locked in horseshoe blocking. Lots of cold and snow directed right into the northeast long term 

 

 

 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs and eps like the 6th wave . Like CooL said, get some sleep.

(Keep weenie me if it makes you feel better)

You sure about that?  If I had to pick a wave it'd be the next one.  

[uofmiami]

Just now, Rjay said:

You sure about that?  If I had to pick a wave it'd be the next one.  

Agreed. I feel like the 1st wave is always the head fake and the 2nd wave ends up being the one. So I’d favor 8-10th period.

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Agreed. I feel like the 1st wave is always the head fake and the 2nd wave ends up being the one. So I’d favor 8-10th period.

I'd prob extend that period though, 8th-13th(ish).  Not talking about a KU either, just a plowable snowfall.  I'd loved a KU though lol. 

[Allsnow]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe if you lose the primary running through the lakes and turn it into more of a SWFE event. But that would risk a scenario like the CMC has a weaker wave north and the southern stream getting suppressed. Too dominant a northern stream and you get a 1-3 or 2-4 then with mixing issues after. 

EPS definitely leaning more towards a swfe then the primary into the lakes 

[Allsnow]

Snow mean 7-8 in NYC on eps for a 7 day period 

[Allsnow]

Better 

@bluewave

[psv88]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS definitely leaning more towards a swfe then the primary into the lakes 

No thank you. I’ve had enough swfes 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Many of the individual members with the weaker SWFE idea than the OP have generally lighter amounts of snow since the wave stays weaker.

The op was def drunk and crazy amped 

[Allsnow]

The eps/gefs looks pretty anchored with the ridge in the west coast today 

 

 

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You sure about that?  If I had to pick a wave it'd be the next one.  

For a big one? Definitely 

[brooklynwx99]

41 minutes ago, Rjay said:

You sure about that?  If I had to pick a wave it'd be the next one.  

my guess the 6-7th is a weaker wave that reinforces confluence for the 8-9th. ensembles really amplify the trough for that second window

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The op was def drunk and crazy amped 

The OP and ensemble mean are different sides of the same coin. One is overamped on the northern stream and the other is a weaker system moving through in the fast flow. Hopefully, we can slow the Northern Stream influence enough to allow us to maximize the window of opportunity we get this month. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The OP and ensemble mean are different sides of the same coin. One is overamped on the northern stream and the other is a weaker system moving through in the fast flow. Hopefully, we can slow the Northern Stream influence enough to allow us to maximize the window of opportunity we get this month. 

Yes, but there are idv members that provide 4+ for nyc on both sides of that coin. 

[CooL]

EPS is honking. Blocking, cold, storms, the whole 9 yards. 

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

My main concern for the Jan 6-13 period is that the Northern Stream remains too fast. Notice the extended EPS lowering surface pressures and increasing precipitation over the over the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest precipitation anomalies by our region are just offshore with lower pressures there. Almost like the energy coming into the Pacific Northwest is acting a kicker leading to stronger development to our east. This faster Northern Stream is what we have been dealing with in December which allowed a few smaller snow events around NYC but no 6”+ storms. So we want to see later runs slow the Pacific Jet into the Pacific Northwest allowing coastal development closer to our area. It would probably be easier to pull off a major 6”+snow in  NYC and coastal areas if we had an El Niño STJ pattern instead with the +PNA -AO blocking forecast. Hopefully as we get further into January the Pacific Jet relaxes enough for a 4”+ or even better 6”+ NYC and coastal event. It’s still early so things can change. 
 

EPS Jan 6 to 13 forecast surface pressure anomalies 


 

Precipitation anomalies 

 

Can’t snow without the cold, just need the main trough axis a bit more west which is still very possible