January 2025

[Stormlover74]

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

18Z GFS really outdid itself for Happy Hour tonight.

For once i don't think it's out to lunch 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

For once i don't think it's out to lunch 

I was not expecting that.  I actually had been looking forward to several days of warmer weather to close out the end of the year however it starting to look like I will be disappointed.  I even put my snowblower away today figuring I would not need it for a least a week to 10 days or so.  

[North and West]

I was not expecting that.  I actually had been looking forward to several days of warmer weather to close out the end of the year however it starting to look like I will be disappointed.  I even put my snowblower away today figuring I would not need it for a least a week to 10 days or so.  

Hopefully I can get my Christmas lights down between now and New Year’s Day.


.

[CooL]

Everything is lining up for a cold and snowy January. Get your rest now 

[Stormlover74]

Cool!

[MJO812]

Wow CooL is back

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Tatamy said:

I was not expecting that.  I actually had been looking forward to several days of warmer weather to close out the end of the year however it starting to look like I will be disappointed.  I even put my snowblower away today figuring I would not need it for a least a week to 10 days or so.  

It's not going to be extremely rainy either.  Just here and there.  I'm looking forward to my partly sunny Sunday and Monday afternoons with temps near 60.

 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs and cmc both have snow on the 7th

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Wow CooL is back

where's the Gang?

[MJO812]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs and cmc both have snow on the 7th

Euro is also very cold and active.  Quite possibly fun times ahead.

[Roger Smith]

Probably coastal mixing Dec 31-Jan 1 4-7" snow inland ... I like Jan 13-14 for a big coastal event. A clipper to near-coast scenario in between (Jan 7-8?) Large energy peak in theory for Jan 13-14, as long as resultant storm stays off coast it could be a blizzard scenario. (if it picks up too much warm air over TN-WV it could also become an inland snowstorm and coastal mixer). First faint signs of this one at 384h on GFS. Energy cycle is 8-10 days so I won't expect to see great progs for Jan 13-14 before Jan 4-5 and it will likely show as being for Jan 11-12 for a while then get slowed down as models pick up stronger forcing. 

[wdrag]

I cant reach beyond ensemble modeling so am limited to Jan 11. Maybe Jan 10ish for a decent snowstorm but I dont know.  

Before then, I'm pretty sure we'll a little snow shower activity Jan 2-3 but no or negligble amounts in the city and then we watch Jan 6-11 time frame but what then?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

I cant reach beyond ensemble modeling so am limited to Jan 11. Maybe Jan 10ish for a decent snowstorm but I dont know.  

Before then, I'm pretty sure we'll a little snow shower activity Jan 2-3 but no or negligble amounts in the city and then we watch Jan 6-11 time frame but what then?

 

 

 

 

 

 

it is impressive IMO that the models came into agreement concerning the arrival of the colder air around January 2nd many days ago. BUT they usually have a much more difficult time agreeing on individual storms and tracks of storms as we all know from past experiences. So I don't think we will know for sure about any snowstorm potential until that cold air arrives again around the 2nd and will not iron out any details till days later.......

[tristateweatherFB]

I understand the excitement of a single op run.   Even the ensembles (which is more realistic). But…

teleconnections!!  Epo! Mjo! Combo is a good tool but know how to use it.  I kept thinking the Mjo was wrong.  Showing warn phase and then crash in the cod. I (we) seen this get stronger into phases.  Mjo loves the cod.  Well here is the new mjo.   That adds to the fact the mjo teleconnection is coming around.   

personally I been saying warm up (though thought would be more impressive and longer) then fun come mid January 10-20th for a very long time.  I am selfishly trying to get a big storm in that timeframe.   Before that it’s gravy and unlikely.   
 

keep Up the good work everyone! I can’t always post due to my weather obligations.  
 

happy and healthy new year to all.   

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My main concern for the Jan 6-13 period is that the Northern Stream remains too fast. Notice the extended EPS lowering surface pressures and increasing precipitation over the over the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest precipitation anomalies by our region are just offshore with lower pressures there. Almost like the energy coming into the Pacific Northwest is acting a kicker leading to stronger development to our east. This faster Northern Stream is what we have been dealing with in December which allowed a few smaller snow events around NYC but no 6”+ storms. So we want to see later runs slow the Pacific Jet into the Pacific Northwest allowing coastal development closer to our area. It would probably be easier to pull off a major 6”+snow in  NYC and coastal areas if we had an El Niño STJ pattern instead with the +PNA -AO blocking forecast. Hopefully as we get further into January the Pacific Jet relaxes enough for a 4”+ or even better 6”+ NYC and coastal event. It’s still early so things can change. 
 

EPS Jan 6 to 13 forecast surface pressure anomalies 


 

Precipitation anomalies 

 

If I am not mistaken this would likely mean a storm track which would favor a Southeast slider, which is what the GFS is showing. Fast flow does not allow the storm to gain latitude. That being said it would be rather interesting to see a Southeast slider in a la niña.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My main concern for the Jan 6-13 period is that the Northern Stream remains too fast. Notice the extended EPS lowering surface pressures and increasing precipitation over the over the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest precipitation anomalies by our region are just offshore with lower pressures there. Almost like the energy coming into the Pacific Northwest is acting a kicker leading to stronger development to our east. This faster Northern Stream is what we have been dealing with in December which allowed a few smaller snow events around NYC but no 6”+ storms. So we want to see later runs slow the Pacific Jet into the Pacific Northwest allowing coastal development closer to our area. It would probably be easier to pull off a major 6”+snow in  NYC and coastal areas if we had an El Niño STJ pattern instead with the +PNA -AO blocking forecast. Hopefully as we get further into January the Pacific Jet relaxes enough for a 4”+ or even better 6”+ NYC and coastal event. It’s still early so things can change. 
 

EPS Jan 6 to 13 forecast surface pressure anomalies 


 

Precipitation anomalies 

 

Our best shot at 4+ might be the storm around the 5/6th which looks like more of an overrunning type deal before rain. That’s a strong high in place ahead of the storm. Obviously we wouldn’t want the primary to get to strong or track to far west 

[EastonSN+]

Just for illustration, however it's been a couple years since the Middle Atlantic and Southeast had a major snowstorm this type of massive cold air intrusion is the perfect setup. 

[EastonSN+]

 

Slight difference between the euro and the gefs. Euro is higher amplitude and phase 8 which is what we want.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Slight difference between the euro and the gefs. Euro is higher amplitude and phase 8 which is what we want.

 

This cold push for January is all MJO related as we are getting a 8-1-2 pass 

[MJO812]

45 minutes ago, tristateweatherFB said:

I understand the excitement of a single op run.   Even the ensembles (which is more realistic). But…

teleconnections!!  Epo! Mjo! Combo is a good tool but know how to use it.  I kept thinking the Mjo was wrong.  Showing warn phase and then crash in the cod. I (we) seen this get stronger into phases.  Mjo loves the cod.  Well here is the new mjo.   That adds to the fact the mjo teleconnection is coming around.   

personally I been saying warm up (though thought would be more impressive and longer) then fun come mid January 10-20th for a very long time.  I am selfishly trying to get a big storm in that timeframe.   Before that it’s gravy and unlikely.   
 

keep Up the good work everyone! I can’t always post due to my weather obligations.  
 

happy and healthy new year to all.   

Welcome back !

[MJO812]

This is awesome if you love cold and snow. Big dip in the AO.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is awesome if you love cold and snow. Big dip in the AO.

If we can get the gefs to spike the PNA like the Euro does we can have a really really big storm. Regardless even with the muted PNA Spike on the gefs we are definitely getting a long period of cold and some chances of snow. Win win just pointing out the minor differences.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

If we can get the gefs to spike the PNA like the Euro does we can have a really really big storm. Regardless even with the muted PNA Spike on the gefs we are definitely getting a long period of cold and some chances of snow. Win win just pointing out the minor differences.

Maybe the neutral enso will help us out this winter. Haven't see that much cold and a big favorable pattern modeled like that in years ( of course it has to verify). 

[EastonSN+]

Does anyone know where to find the EPO index. In the Middle Atlantic forum a few days ago they showed a chart which showed the EPO tanking and the PDO rising.

[forkyfork]

could easily be cold and dry 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

could easily be cold and dry 

Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely. A decade ago when the Pacific jet wasn't raging the upcoming period would've been a slam dunk KU pattern imo. 

It's more that this is a 1980s setup where the trough is positioned a bit too far east, a decade ago it was all EPO driven and the EPO was East based which is rare.

[MANDA]

Guidance / ensembles in good agreement and persistent in dumping record or near record cold into the central and eastern U.S for second week of January.  Very strong cold signal developing.   Evolution and exact details uncertain.  Some of the guidance developing intense high pressure from the high arctic southeast into the U.S. 

Depending on how things evolve could be accompanied by some snow around here.  How much? 

Far away but the bitter outbreak signal is strong.  Often times intense cold is dry but there are exceptions. If there is anything noteworthy around here as far as snowfall I'd say the window is January 7-12. 

Intense cold without snow is annoying and a waste of cold air.

[WestBabylonWeather]

If it’s cold and dry I’m going to be upset. We need at least one good storm please