donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th. Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events. Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors: - Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period - Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days - Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days) With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent. At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized. Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 3:07 PM, donsutherland1 said: The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th. Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events. Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors: - Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period - Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days - Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days) With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent. At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized. Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Expand In a percentage how likely is the Euro weeklies I posted 1 post above yours to verify across our region ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 3:07 PM, donsutherland1 said: The teleconnections are forecast to move into a combination that has often been associated with moderate or significant snowstorms in New York City. Based on the 12/27 0z EPS and latest 46-day ECMWF forecast, the teleconnections could be in a favorable state through January 20th. Moderate or significant snowfalls are still infrequent events. Assuming that the favorable combination occurs and persists through January 20th, one will need to look for additional factors: - Sufficient cold: Likely through most of the period - Short waves that could become storms: Multiple candidates on the guidance through 15 days - Synoptic details: TBD (can't be reliably forecast beyond 5-7 days) With the ENSO being in a neutral-cool phase, the active subtropical jet stream that is conducive to the development of Miller A storms is less prominent. At present, the potential for at least moderate (4" or above) snowfalls will become more favorable than it has been during all of the winter so far. However, the potential still needs to be realized. Based on the statistics (1950-2024), here's what seems plausible right now for the January 1-20 period: - Measurable snowfalls: 2-4 days - 1" or more snowfall: 1-3 days - 2" or more snowfall: 1-2 days - 4" or more snowfall: 1 day Moderate snowfalls: 1 to perhaps 2 Significant snowfalls: Maybe 1 Expand Nice presentation of the data, thanks for posting. Can't really ask for more than an extended favorable period. Hopefully we cash in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 No shock that the gfs is getting better with blocking. Interior threat possibly for NYD with a possible threat around the 4th /5th and then 9/10. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Loving the PNA rise and the dip in the AO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 4:31 PM, MJO812 said: No shock that the gfs is getting better with blocking. Interior threat possibly for NYD with a possible threat around the 4th /5th and then 9/10. Expand I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 4:44 PM, snowman19 said: I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE Expand They think it's a possibility. A small one though. Even CMC is close for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 4:47 PM, MJO812 said: They think it's a possibility. A small one though. Even CMC is close for them. Expand That was a nice trend on the GFS. Better Atlantic blocking and stronger heights out west on the GEFS. NYD is a long shot due to air mass and less than ideal track but not impossible especially for NW zones and higher elevations 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 I do like seeing some of ops showing the potential in the pattern. Obviously, you can’t take it as gospel but I think it’s important moving forward if the pattern is legit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 3:16 PM, NEG NAO said: In a percentage how likely is the Euro weeklies I posted 1 post above yours to verify across our region ? Expand Its verification requires a major snowstorm. We’ll have to see if things come together. Such storms are uncommon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 4:44 PM, snowman19 said: I doubt NYD is a snow threat even for interior southern New England. Even the mets in that forum are doubting that’s a threat for interior northern New England, let alone SNE Expand It’s not a snow threat for the NYC area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 2:29 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: Late 90s sucked Early 1990s as well! The past few years have felt like the early and late 1990s again. At least there’s better TV options now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 That’s some real legit cold on the ensembles to start January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 8:22 PM, MJO812 said: Expand What about week 1 to 2 precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 8:36 PM, Stormlover74 said: What about week 1 to 2 precip? Expand Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Weeklies are loaded 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 8:49 PM, MJO812 said: Weeklies are loaded Expand I want more then 12 over the next 30 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 9:51 PM, Allsnow said: I want more then 12 over the next 30 days Expand We all do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 Not sure if anyone is noticing the past 3 cycles of the GFS and one or 2 12 hr cycles of CMC, backside measurable snow down to I84 on Jan 1 as rapid intensification occurs with the neg tilt shortwave near LI. I see the latest GFS op has heavy snow Catskills on Jan 1. Gonna be a chilly rain in Time Sq NYE. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 10:37 PM, wdrag said: Not sure if anyone is noticing the past 3 cycles of the GFS and one or 2 12 hr cycles of CMC, backside measurable snow down to I84 on Jan 1 as rapid intensification occurs with the neg tilt shortwave near LI. I see the latest GFS op has heavy snow Catskills on Jan 1. Gonna be a chilly rain in Time Sq NYE. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 9:53 PM, MJO812 said: We all do Expand 12 inches is a very high amount for an ensemble mean. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 gfs has a storm on the 7th and potentially a 2nd one around the 10th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 10:54 PM, EastonSN+ said: 12 inches is a very high amount for an ensemble mean. Expand It's the weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 11:06 PM, Stormlover74 said: gfs has a storm on the 7th and potentially a 2nd one around the 10th Expand Models been pretty consistent about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 11:11 PM, MJO812 said: Models been pretty consistent about that. Expand But showing 2 good snowstorms. 1 all snow 1 rain to heavy snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 11:14 PM, Stormlover74 said: But showing 2 good snowstorms. 1 all snow 1 rain to heavy snow Expand I wonder if the NYD storm can trend south for some flakes down here and accumulating snow for interior areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 18Z GFS really outdid itself for Happy Hour tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted December 27, 2024 Share Posted December 27, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 11:19 PM, MJO812 said: I wonder if the NYD storm can trend south for some flakes down here and accumulating snow for interior areas. Expand Mt Holly in their evening AFD noted their concern about the possibility of a coastal developing on Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing snow to parts of the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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