January 2025

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I have been reading your posts for 3 years on multiple subforums. I do not get the sense that you have a very deep understanding of meteorology or weather forecasting. You also don't seem to respond well to criticism. When you repeatedly put yourself out there with confident, authoritative information, you open yourself up to critique. From my vantage point, you don't have a great track record when it comes to forecasting, despite your obvious interest and dedication. Most of us would acknowledge that our 4-year college degrees don't necessary make us experts at much of anything. Maybe it's just an indictment on college curriculums and the field of meteorology.

You also don't know who I am or what I know. For all you know, my knowledge and experience might exceed your own.

Take the pissing contest to PMs. 

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How about the 12z gfs and Euro in weenie range?

I'm mildly intrigued by the 3rd - 4th on the GFS, but minimal ensemble support and lots of disagreement between the other models. No clarity in weenie range when day 7 still isn't close to being resolved.

[winterwx21]

At least January is looking cold. That gives us a good chance. Way too early to take any storms threats seriously or worry about the models not showing any storms threats. With consistent cold weather, odds are pretty high that we'll get a decent amount of snow in January. Even if it's just light to moderate events. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

At least January is looking cold. That gives us a good chance. Way too early to take any storms threats seriously or worry about the models not showing any storms threats. With consistent cold weather, odds are pretty high that we'll get a decent amount of snow in January. Even if it's just light to moderate events. 

Euro and GFS agree on a cold pattern after next week. Establish the cold first then snow chances will go up.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Really nice plot. The correlation between PNA+ and NYC snowfall jumps out. But one thing that a stickler would say is missing from the analysis to make it statistically robust is an accounting of the relative frequency of time spent in each quadrant. For example, hypothetically if 95% of winter days occurred with an AO- PNA+ combo, observing a majority of significant snow events with these parameters would not be telling. What you're getting at is the relative likelihood of significant snow on any given day with each combination. And for that, some kind of normalization of the data is required.

Here's the data that includes percentages of January days with the select teleconnections.

 

[Allsnow]

@Rjay

 

 

[bluewave]

At least the EPS is trying to show an East Coast storm track by the 2nd week of January. If we can hold this look into next week maybe we will be onto something. Anchoring the ridge along the West Coast with an -AO could help to make this possible. We just don’t want to see a faster Pacific Jet in later runs pushing too far into the West acting as a kicker.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the EPS is trying to show an East Coast storm track by the 2nd week of January. If we can hold this look into next week maybe we will be onto something. Anchoring the ridge along the West Coast with an -AO could help to make this possible. We just don’t want to see a faster Pacific Jet in later runs pushing too far into the West acting as a kicker.

Gfs Is also showing a similar solution

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least the EPS is trying to show an East Coast storm track by the 2nd week of January. If we can hold this look into next week maybe we will be onto something. Anchoring the ridge along the West Coast with an -AO could help to make this possible. We just don’t want to see a faster Pacific Jet in later runs pushing too far into the West acting as a kicker.

Perhaps we are on the way to a January 2022 type month 

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps we are on the way to a January 2022 type month 

Ice lip special. I’ll take it 

[MJO812]

Pretty consistent 

[SnoSki14]

But I worry that the Pacific jet will trend stronger as has been the case and we end up getting screwed.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

But I worry that the Pacific jet will trend stronger as has been the case and we end up getting screwed.

When has it trended stronger this winter ? PNA is forecasted to stay positive.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps we are on the way to a January 2022 type month 

Not sure if we can get to something that pristine since the forcing forecast looks different. 
 

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I like brooklyns posts. They give me hope in a sea of nopes. 

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I like brooklyns posts. They give me hope in a sea of nopes. 

Legit there is a good pattern modeled. Lets do this

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Pretty consistent 

You can see the ridge axis pressing further east from the earlier runs with a faster Pacific Jet and lower heights south of Alaska as we get closer. But the Atlantic side improved which may try to compensate at bit. Hopefully, we can get a cleaner coastal track by the 2nd week of January without the Pacific Jet disrupting the pattern too much. But there are no guarantees with the way things have been going in recent years. I will take it as a big win if NYC can break the under 4” of snow streak. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the ridge axis pressing further east from the earlier runs with a faster Pacific Jet and lower heights south of Alaska as we get closer. But the Atlantic side improved which may try to compensate at bit. Hopefully, we can get a cleaner coastal track by the 2nd week of January without the Pacific Jet disrupting the pattern too much. But there are no guarantees with the way things have been going in recent years. I will take it as a big win if NYC can break the under 4” of snow streak. 

The overnight ensembles look great . I think NYC can definitely break the streak next month . 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The overnight ensembles look great . I think NYC can definitely break the streak next month . 

That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s

I don't see what you and others are worried about. Who cares what happened in the past. Just keep model watching and get ready for a colder pattern after NYD.

A few dates to watch ( Jan 4/5 and Jan 9/10. 

[Dark Star]

38 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I don't see what you and others are worried about. Who cares what happened in the past. Just keep model watching and get ready for a colder pattern after NYD.

A few dates to watch ( Jan 4/5 and Jan 9/10. 

The Pacific Jet is real and probably is the most significant determinant of the weather in our area.

[Stormlover74]

46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That Pacific jet will be a huge hindrance unfortunately. Hopefully we can get a favorably timed period otherwise it'll be cold/dry to brief warm/wet then back to cold/dry a la warmer version of the 80s

The average January snow totals in the 80s was nearly 8"

[qg_omega]

Looks like a cutter pattern on the ensembles 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The average January snow totals in the 80s was nearly 8"

The 1990s were actually worse for January snowfall. In the 90s there were 4 winters were January ended up with less than 2 inches of snowfall as compared to the 1980s where only 2 Winters ended up with less than 2 inches of snow for January.

Interesting fact is in the 1990s 4 December's ended up with just a trace of snow LOL. A total of 6 December's had less than 1 inch. Outside of 3 Winters the 1990s take the cake for putrid snowfall totals.

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

Finally getting a decent amplitude passage through 8 1 and 2. Warming Waters in the Indian Ocean will help with phase 1 and 2 amplification.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The 1990s were actually worse for January snowfall. In the 90s there were 4 winters were January ended up with less than 2 inches of snowfall as compared to the 1980s where only 2 Winters ended up with less than 2 inches of snow for January.

Interesting fact is in the 1990s 4 December's ended up with just a trace of snow LOL. A total of 6 December's had less than 1 inch. Outside of 3 Winters the 1990s take the cake for putrid snowfall totals.

90s were fine because of 1992-93, 1993-94 and 1995-96

None of the other winters matter.

 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

90s were fine because of 1992-93, 1993-94 and 1995-96

None of the other winters matter.

 

The 1990s were the All or nothing home run hitters of the winter decades.