January 2025

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

 

its working again

Tropical Tidbits

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Webb

I mentioned this last year, the waters in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Africa are rising quickly which would mean higher amplitude waves in phases 1 and 2. This will help offset the warm Waters in Indonesia which are contributing to the higher amplitude waves in the warm phases.

[brooklynwx99]

10 hours ago, eduggs said:

Well Brooklyn primarily posts about "favorable" signs  - usually mid or long range ensemble mean anomaly charts... over and over again. It's been like that for a few years now if my memory servers me correctly. That seems kind of weenyish to me. Sometimes I appreciate it... but other times a bit more objectivity is warranted. Presumably he will acquire more balance with more experience.

would you like me to make posts about when the pattern is crappy? usually everyone knows when it’s not going to snow so i don’t really bother wasting any more space on it

here you go. warm and wet, garbage pattern for the next week. no snow to speak of. is that enough balance?

[forkyfork]

i don't find rain boring 

[donsutherland1]

An AO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to prevail through at least the first 7-10 days of January. These patterns accounted for a disproportionate share of 6"+ snowstorms for New York City during January 1-31, 1950-2024. The AO -2.500 to 0.000/PNA 0.000 to +1.750 ranges account for 50% of such events in January.

The teleconnections do not guarantee significant snowstorm. Things that will be critical:

1. Whether there are short waves that could become storms

2. The 500 mb pattern

3. Placement of synoptic features

4. A sufficiently cold air mass

The potential for at least a moderate (4" or above) snowstorm will be greater than it has been during all of December. It remains to be seen whether the potential will be realized.

 

[uofmiami]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An AO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to prevail through at least the first 7-10 days of January. These patterns accounted for a disproportionate share of 6"+ snowstorms for New York City during January 1-31, 1950-2024. The AO -2.500 to 0.000/PNA 0.000 to +1.750 ranges account for 50% of such events in January.

The teleconnections do not guarantee significant snowstorm. Things that will be critical:

1. Whether there are short waves that could become storms

2. The 500 mb pattern

3. Placement of synoptic features

4. A sufficiently cold air mass

The potential for at least a moderate (4" or above) snowstorm will be greater than it has been during all of December. It remains to be seen whether the potential will be realized.

 

As you & other have stated too, there's potential.  Let's see what unfolds once this pattern takes hold.  Fingers crossed for those wanting a decent size snowstorm, it's been a while.

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An AO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to prevail through at least the first 7-10 days of January. These patterns accounted for a disproportionate share of 6"+ snowstorms for New York City during January 1-31, 1950-2024. The AO -2.500 to 0.000/PNA 0.000 to +1.750 ranges account for 50% of such events in January.

The teleconnections do not guarantee significant snowstorm. Things that will be critical:

1. Whether there are short waves that could become storms

2. The 500 mb pattern

3. Placement of synoptic features

4. A sufficiently cold air mass

The potential for at least a moderate (4" or above) snowstorm will be greater than it has been during all of December. It remains to be seen whether the potential will be realized.

 

Good post. I don’t think the pattern supports a MECS, but agree a 4-6” event could be possible. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is really cold after NYD

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good post. I don’t think the pattern supports a MECS, but agree a 4-6” event could be possible. 

4-6 event is fine but this supports a big snowstorm if everything comes together.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

would you like me to make posts about when the pattern is crappy? usually everyone knows when it’s not going to snow so i don’t really bother wasting any more space on it

here you go. warm and wet, garbage pattern for the next week. no snow to speak of. is that enough balance?

 

Yes please occasionally post something other than toggled 500mb anomaly charts that you think show a favorable "pattern" for cold and snow. Better yet, spend some time on analyzing why so many of your highlighted patterns fail to portend cold and snow. Once you have a better handle on that, you will be a much better mid- and long-range forecaster. I'm not sure if this applies to you, but I really think younger forecasters are at a disservice having grown up in the era of tropicaltidbits, pivotweather, and various plotters to view historical data and "patterns." Without a deep understanding of statistics and a more intuitive feel for forecast uncertainty that comes with age and experience, the ease of data access gives youngsters the impression that they understand things that they really don't understand.

[eduggs]

Gotta marvel at the 12z CMS with 3 rain events and another just past the end of the run as we approach peak winter climo. Fortunately other mid-range guidance starts to differ early in the run.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Perhaps this one could come a little North for a light event. 

 

[eduggs]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

An AO-/PNA+ pattern is forecast to prevail through at least the first 7-10 days of January. These patterns accounted for a disproportionate share of 6"+ snowstorms for New York City during January 1-31, 1950-2024. The AO -2.500 to 0.000/PNA 0.000 to +1.750 ranges account for 50% of such events in January.

 

 

Really nice plot. The correlation between PNA+ and NYC snowfall jumps out. But one thing that a stickler would say is missing from the analysis to make it statistically robust is an accounting of the relative frequency of time spent in each quadrant. For example, hypothetically if 95% of winter days occurred with an AO- PNA+ combo, observing a majority of significant snow events with these parameters would not be telling. What you're getting at is the relative likelihood of significant snow on any given day with each combination. And for that, some kind of normalization of the data is required.

[NEG NAO]

49 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Good post. I don’t think the pattern supports a MECS, but agree a 4-6” event could be possible. 

MECS are infrequent events in the immediate metro and we have had them in unfavorable patterns - impossible to predict if or  how many SECS, MECS etc. etc. we will have in any given pattern...

[rclab]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i don't find rain boring 

I can absolutely believe that. Stay wet, as always ….

 

[BxEngine]

22 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes please occasionally post something other than toggled 500mb anomaly charts that you think show a favorable "pattern" for cold and snow. Better yet, spend some time on analyzing why so many of your highlighted patterns fail to portend cold and snow. Once you have a better handle on that, you will be a much better mid- and long-range forecaster. I'm not sure if this applies to you, but I really think younger forecasters are at a disservice having grown up in the era of tropicaltidbits, pivotweather, and various plotters to view historical data and "patterns." Without a deep understanding of statistics and a more intuitive feel for forecast uncertainty that comes with age and experience, the ease of data access gives youngsters the impression that they understand things that they really don't understand.

Posting this but ignoring those who only posts bad news just proves everyone is subjective, and if you only call out one side then it does everyone here a disservice and cheapens your intended message.  

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, BxEngine said:

Posting this but ignoring those who only posts bad news just proves everyone is subjective, and if you only call out one side than it does everyone here a disservice and cheapens your intended message.  

Well said ! Also I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion and if you want to debate it don't tell them to stop posting their opinions - debate it in a civilized manner

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Posting this but ignoring those who only posts bad news just proves everyone is subjective, and if you only call out one side then it does everyone here a disservice and cheapens your intended message.  

what if people tracked weather without being emotionally connected to one specific precip type

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

This will indeed be an interesting winter. Per the Middle Atlantic forum the PDO is rising fast, however, a negative EPO does not benefit us if we have a deep RNA. In rare cases like 95/96 we have a La Nina which never fully results in a deep RNA, same rang true for 2010 2011. 

Given that March can be snowy in a La Nina due to the shorter wavelengths, perhaps we could bridge the gap with a shorter RNA period.

The only thing that matters if you want to see a NYC 4”+ snow event is slowing the Pacific flow long enough for the ridge to stay anchored along the West Coast. That along with the increased AO blocking could allow for a coastal storm track with cold in place. But the period in question is still out closer to the 2nd week of January and requires it showing up in the shorter range in order to be believable. 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Gotta marvel at the 12z CMS with 3 rain events and another just past the end of the run as we approach peak winter climo. Fortunately other mid-range guidance starts to differ early in the run.

How about the 12z gfs and Euro in weenie range?

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if people tracked weather without being emotionally connected to one specific precip type

The vast majority of people who act like they’re not emotionally connected to any sort of weather outcome are lying to themselves. 

[Tatamy]

I was looking at one of webcams that I follow out on Fire Island and noticed some ice on the water near the docks.  This is a sign that the ocean and near shore waters are cooling as we go further into the winter season.  This will become a player when we get our next winter storm.

[brooklynwx99]

49 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes please occasionally post something other than toggled 500mb anomaly charts that you think show a favorable "pattern" for cold and snow. Better yet, spend some time on analyzing why so many of your highlighted patterns fail to portend cold and snow. Once you have a better handle on that, you will be a much better mid- and long-range forecaster. I'm not sure if this applies to you, but I really think younger forecasters are at a disservice having grown up in the era of tropicaltidbits, pivotweather, and various plotters to view historical data and "patterns." Without a deep understanding of statistics and a more intuitive feel for forecast uncertainty that comes with age and experience, the ease of data access gives youngsters the impression that they understand things that they really don't understand.

i’m a degreed meteorologist that does long range forecasting professionally. i’m actually quite conservative for my job, believe it or not. i have been looking at this stuff since I was 10 years old

why be so condescending? you have some kind of nerve acting like you know better than me because of some crap I post on a weather forum. like seriously, how could you take the time to write all of this up and think it doesn’t sound incredibly sanctimonious. basically saying that i don’t even understand what i’m posting 

and some of you wonder why so many mets have left this subforum. posts like this. my god

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

The vast majority of people who act like they’re not emotionally connected to any sort of weather outcome are lying to themselves. 

the snow people go above and beyond 

[eduggs]

26 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Posting this but ignoring those who only posts bad news just proves everyone is subjective, and if you only call out one side then it does everyone here a disservice and cheapens your intended message.  

Brooklyn posts a lot in several subforums and has a red tag. Few people provide a counterpoint to his posts despite their sometimes repetitive and simplistic nature. Non-red-taggers get constant push back so I don't feel it would be constructive to police all their posts.

[HeadInTheClouds]

14 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if people tracked weather without being emotionally connected to one specific precip type

Yea because rain is so much fun. People got interested in weather in the first place because of snowstorms and severe weather and not your typical warm and wet, so it makes sense that many people here want the white stuff. 

[Eduardo]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

The vast majority of people who act like they’re not emotionally connected to any sort of weather outcome is lying to themselves. 

I don’t know if it’s a “vast majority,” though the ones who showcase their biases on here (who, don’t get me wrong, I love) tend to be ‘louder,’ more frequent posters.

I definitely hope for tundra-like cold and snow during the winter.  2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were the glory days for me.  But I also have been incredibly bearish on any such fun over these past few winters.  This year, I thought we’d have some periods where the PAC would cooperate and, objectively-speaking, I think it’s safe to say that this upcoming mid-January period offers more potential than we’ve seen for quite awhile.  I wouldn’t be surprised to have to close the shades again come late January or early February, but that still a ways out.

[BxEngine]

23 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what if people tracked weather without being emotionally connected to one specific precip type

Didnt take you for a dreamer of utopia…

[HeadInTheClouds]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the snow people go above and beyond 

Yea because the other side doesn't do the same and weenie everything with any mention of snow and cold regardless of the validity of the post. 

[Violentweatherfan]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i’m a degreed meteorologist that does long range forecasting professionally. i’m actually quite conservative for my job, believe it or not. i have been looking at this stuff since I was 10 years old

why be so condescending? you have some kind of nerve acting like you know better than me because of some crap I post on a weather forum. like seriously, how could you take the time to write all of this up and think it doesn’t sound incredibly sanctimonious. basically saying that i don’t even understand what i’m posting 

and some of you wonder why so many mets have left this subforum. posts like this. my god

You’d be very welcomed in the Philadelphia forum