January 2025

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We haven’t had a legit nor’easter in a long time. People should just relax and see what happens. It’s possible we get through January with very little snow. Or we could score a few small events, which is where I stand. I think nyc gets around 12” of snow from 3 events combined

i agree. I’m not calling for a monster storm or anything like that, but the advertised pattern after the 3rd or so does look highly favorable for snow and possibly a larger storm 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i agree. I’m not calling for a monster storm or anything like that, but the advertised pattern after the 3rd or so does look highly favorable for snow and possibly a larger storm 

Allsnow keeps giving you weenies for no reason. I guess he hates the truth. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Allsnow keeps giving you weenies for no reason. I guess he hates the truth. 

There’s no truth here…we are talking about the future. There are only opinions at this point. it’s good to keep expectations low and not get hyped up…

[NorthShoreWx]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

There’s no truth here…we are talking about the future. There are only opinions at this point. it’s good to keep expectations low and not get hyped up…

It's more fun to imagine the big one.  I'm down with that.  Viva imagination.

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Allsnow keeps giving you weenies for no reason. I guess he hates the truth. 

Well Brooklyn primarily posts about "favorable" signs  - usually mid or long range ensemble mean anomaly charts... over and over again. It's been like that for a few years now if my memory servers me correctly. That seems kind of weenyish to me. Sometimes I appreciate it... but other times a bit more objectivity is warranted. Presumably he will acquire more balance with more experience.

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The risk coming up is suppression , not cutting with the block forming in early January . Gfs just missed with 2 storms.  January 5-10is the 1st timeframe to watch for a snowstorm..

Fast pacific jet will have shortwaves coming in further north. Shortwaves cutting are the issue. 

Case in point, the GFS OP. 

The erosion of heights out west means shortwaves can't dig south and take that coveted coastal track. Instead they'll move quickly ENE and best case drop a couple inches if the antecedent air mass is cold enough, otherwise it'll be rain. 

On the plus side the GEFS are showing less troughiness out west, probably has something to do with the big rise in the PDO

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

let’s say the average liquid for a month is 4”. if it’s a cold and dry month in terms of total liquid, it can be -3F and 3” total liquid… there’s less liquid because it’s cold. so it’s technically a “dry” month

however, since you get 10” of snow for every 1” of liquid, that inch less in total liquid doesn’t really matter that much anymore when the proportion of liquid that falls as snow is higher 

Thats not how it usually works though.

What usually happens is when the weather is cold it's also suppressed.  In between cold shots we get a cutter and rain.

It can be a -3 January with 4 inches of total liquid but 80% or more of that is rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

we had this all the time in the 80s, see my previous post to see how it happens

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

It almost never happens. even if you go back to December 2010 when we had some extreme cold and some suppression misses, eventually when the deep eastern trough started to lift out we got the inevitable Archimbault event with a big coastal for Boxing Day. if the deep cold for January that we see in the ensembles unfoldS for a couple of weeks, we will get snow.

no it actually happen a lot, you didn't live through the 80s.

cold and dry Januarys were the norm.

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression depression 

Ugh no it's not-- you would do well in that set up.  And in case you didn't realize it, YOU LIVE ON LONG ISLAND.  Some stupid political border doesn't change the fact that Brooklyn and Queens are geographically part of Long Island!

In that January 2022 storm everyone seems to love to reference, Brooklyn got about a foot of snow!

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track 

He's also wrong, what was described isn't *suppression depression*

You want to see suppression depression? That's February 1989 or the first storm in February 2010.

 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, eduggs said:

Well Brooklyn primarily posts about "favorable" signs  - usually mid or long range ensemble mean anomaly charts... over and over again. It's been like that for a few years now if my memory servers me correctly. That seems kind of weenyish to me. Sometimes I appreciate it... but other times a bit more objectivity is warranted. Presumably he will acquire more balance with more experience.

I wish someone had kept track of all the very favorable and historic digital snow patterns at 500mb in the mid and long range we’ve shoveled out over the last 4 winters. It has to be in the thousands of inches by now

[BxEngine]

The irony 

[North and West]

I wish someone had kept track of all the very favorable and historic digital snow patterns at 500mb in the mid and long range we’ve shoveled out over the last 4 winters. It has to be in the thousands of inches by now

You were probably a blast at Christmas this year.


.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I wish someone had kept track of all the very favorable and historic digital snow patterns at 500mb in the mid and long range we’ve shoveled out over the last 4 winters. It has to be in the thousands of inches by now

The main issue since 18-19 has been the fast west to east Pacific zonal flow. This has lead to the 3 primary storm tracks for us most of the time. The Great Lakes cutter track to our west. Then the coastal hugger track right across the area. Followed by the southern stream suppression to our south and east where the storm gets going too late. 

This is why NYC and nearby areas have had 5 out of the last 6 seasons with well below average snowfall. 20-21 was able to slow the Pacific Jet influence enough which allowed a coastal storm track to our south and east to dominate. So the areas around NYC finished well above normal snowfall. 21-22 was an interesting case of only 1 winter month allowing coastal storm tracks. So Long Island was able to go over 30” on the season with just January 2022. But NYC and nearby NJ missed out on the heaviest snows since the storm track was displaced slightly east of the benchmark. 

This frequent storm track pattern is what we have been calling a La Niña background state. While the zonal flow even prevailed last winter, CNJ had that one surprise heavy snow event. That was a function of the El Niño driven record STJ jet streak which pushed back against the storm track which was too far north for a week in February. But those snows were not widespread enough to help out other areas.

The other issue is that even in cold patterns, we can still get warm storm tracks too far north. A prime example of this was this December. While we had a colder pattern, the cold has arrived after the warmer storm tracks. So it wasn’t in place ahead of the storms. This lead to light snowfall amounts in December around NYC but not the big 4” or 6”+ events people were hoping for. We also saw this during January 2019 which was a slightly colder month with a low near zero but warm storm tracks. The heaviest storm in the month was a 60° cutter rainstorm with only a 1” snow squall that month.

Models over the last 6 years beyond the 6-10 day period have often showed patterns which have suggested coastal storm tracks with cold in place before the storms arrived. But one the said period gets into the 6-10 or 1-5 day range the pattern verifies much less than the forecast. This is what people mean by chasing the carrot. One of the things which often happens like this months is that Pacific Jet becomes stronger the closer in time we get with stronger zonal flow. This in turn lowers heights out West and leads to continuing storm track issues here for heavy snows.

During 2010 to 2018 we would often see great looking modeled patterns beyond a week that made it to under a week and we for the great coastal track snowstorms. While we did still get storm tracks through the Great Lakes at times. The benchmark track was dominant.

This is not to say we shouldn’t be grateful for the smaller events. But it’s just a challenge to reach normal or above normal seasonal snow with a collection of smaller events.

At least into early January it looks like something smaller may be our best chance for snow. But if later models runs develop and hold a weaker zonal flow pattern, then maybe NYC will have a shot 4”+ snow event.

[qg_omega]

The pattern is ZZZ with rain chances for the next two weeks

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, North and West said:

You were probably a blast at Christmas this year.


.

Maybe someone just needs to get him drunk

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main issue since 18-19 has been the fast west to east Pacific zonal flow. This has lead to the 3 primary storm tracks for us most of the time. The Great Lakes cutter track to our west. Then the coastal hugger track right across the area. Followed by the southern stream suppression to our south and east where the storm gets going too late. 

This is why NYC and nearby areas have had 5 out of the last 6 seasons with well below average snowfall. 20-21 was able to slow the Pacific Jet influence enough which allowed a coastal storm track to our south and east to dominate. So the areas around NYC finished well above normal snowfall. 21-22 was an interesting case of only 1 winter month allowing coastal storm tracks. So Long Island was able to go over 30” on the season with just January 2022. But NYC and nearby NJ missed out on the heaviest snows since the storm track was displaced slightly east of the benchmark. 

This frequent storm track pattern is what we have been calling a La Niña background state. While the zonal flow even prevailed last winter, CNJ had that one surprise heavy snow event. That was a function of the El Niño driven record STJ jet streak which pushed back against the storm track which was too far north for a week in February. But those snows were not widespread enough to help out other areas.

The other issue is that even in cold patterns, we can still get warm storm tracks too far north. A prime example of this was this December. While we had a colder pattern, the cold has arrived after the warmer storm tracks. So it wasn’t in place ahead of the storms. This lead to light snowfall amounts in December around NYC but not the big 4” or 6”+ events people were hoping for. We also saw this during January 2019 which was a slightly colder month with a low near zero but warm storm tracks. The heaviest storm in the month was a 60° cutter rainstorm with only a 1” snow squall that month.

Models over the last 6 years beyond the 6-10 day period have often showed patterns which have suggested coastal storm tracks with cold in place before the storms arrived. But one the said period gets into the 6-10 or 1-5 day range the pattern verifies much less than the forecast. This is what people mean by chasing the carrot. One of the things which often happens like this months is that Pacific Jet becomes stronger the closer in time we get with stronger zonal flow. This in turn lowers heights out West and leads to continuing storm track issues here for heavy snows.

During 2010 to 2018 we would often see great looking modeled patterns beyond a week that made it to under a week and we for the great coastal track snowstorms. While we did still get storm tracks through the Great Lakes at times. The benchmark track was dominant.

This is not to say we shouldn’t be grateful for the smaller events. But it’s just a challenge to reach normal or above normal seasonal snow with a collection of smaller events.

At least into early January it looks like something smaller may be our best chance for snow. But if later models runs develop and hold a weaker zonal flow pattern, then maybe NYC will have a shot 4”+ snow event.

December 1989 is a textbook example of cold and dry or cold followed by rain followed by more cold.

It would be funny if DC saw more snow this winter than we do.

 

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I wish someone had kept track of all the very favorable and historic digital snow patterns at 500mb in the mid and long range we’ve shoveled out over the last 4 winters. It has to be in the thousands of inches by now

Pot meet kettle

[NEG NAO]

anybody else having issues connecting to Tropical Tidbits ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[NEG NAO]

This says it all Cold and Active

[CentralNJSnowman]

28 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

anybody else having issues connecting to Tropical Tidbits ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Yup

 

[Allsnow]

Gefs definitely went towards the the eps but unfortunately the pac jet is pushing the pna further east (like December) It will be cold but the big events will be hard to come by. Hopefully something substantial before the late Nina pattern kicks in towards the end of January. 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This says it all Cold and Active

Going to be a cold January 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gefs definitely went towards the the eps but unfortunately the pac jet is pushing the pna further east (like December) It will be cold but the big events will be hard to come by. Hopefully something substantial before the late Nina pattern kicks in towards the end of January. 

It's December 26. How do you know that big events are going to be hard to come by ? Let the pattern set in first.  Lately you have been a bigger weenie than I am. 

[uofmiami]

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The main issue since 18-19 has been the fast west to east Pacific zonal flow. This has lead to the 3 primary storm tracks for us most of the time. The Great Lakes cutter track to our west. Then the coastal hugger track right across the area. Followed by the southern stream suppression to our south and east where the storm gets going too late. 

This is why NYC and nearby areas have had 5 out of the last 6 seasons with well below average snowfall. 20-21 was able to slow the Pacific Jet influence enough which allowed a coastal storm track to our south and east to dominate. So the areas around NYC finished well above normal snowfall. 21-22 was an interesting case of only 1 winter month allowing coastal storm tracks. So Long Island was able to go over 30” on the season with just January 2022. But NYC and nearby NJ missed out on the heaviest snows since the storm track was displaced slightly east of the benchmark. 

This frequent storm track pattern is what we have been calling a La Niña background state. While the zonal flow even prevailed last winter, CNJ had that one surprise heavy snow event. That was a function of the El Niño driven record STJ jet streak which pushed back against the storm track which was too far north for a week in February. But those snows were not widespread enough to help out other areas.

The other issue is that even in cold patterns, we can still get warm storm tracks too far north. A prime example of this was this December. While we had a colder pattern, the cold has arrived after the warmer storm tracks. So it wasn’t in place ahead of the storms. This lead to light snowfall amounts in December around NYC but not the big 4” or 6”+ events people were hoping for. We also saw this during January 2019 which was a slightly colder month with a low near zero but warm storm tracks. The heaviest storm in the month was a 60° cutter rainstorm with only a 1” snow squall that month.

Models over the last 6 years beyond the 6-10 day period have often showed patterns which have suggested coastal storm tracks with cold in place before the storms arrived. But one the said period gets into the 6-10 or 1-5 day range the pattern verifies much less than the forecast. This is what people mean by chasing the carrot. One of the things which often happens like this months is that Pacific Jet becomes stronger the closer in time we get with stronger zonal flow. This in turn lowers heights out West and leads to continuing storm track issues here for heavy snows.

During 2010 to 2018 we would often see great looking modeled patterns beyond a week that made it to under a week and we for the great coastal track snowstorms. While we did still get storm tracks through the Great Lakes at times. The benchmark track was dominant.

This is not to say we shouldn’t be grateful for the smaller events. But it’s just a challenge to reach normal or above normal seasonal snow with a collection of smaller events.

At least into early January it looks like something smaller may be our best chance for snow. But if later models runs develop and hold a weaker zonal flow pattern, then maybe NYC will have a shot 4”+ snow event.

Great post as always thanks for this.

Phase eight looks a little weak however looks like a stronger wave is going into one and two and I believe phase 2 is still cold and active for our area in January. I did reference this last year where the warm water anomalies, while amplifying the waves in the warm phases, are also amplifying phases one and two which are cold. Perhaps the retracted jet which was posted above from a Twitter post is associated with the stronger phases one and two.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great post as always thanks for this.

Phase eight looks a little weak however looks like a stronger wave is going into one and two and I believe phase 2 is still cold and active for our area in January. I did reference this last year where the warm water anomalies, while amplifying the waves in the warm phases, are also amplifying phases one and two which are cold. Perhaps the retracted jet which was posted above from a Twitter post is associated with the stronger phases one and two.

We haven’t been getting the usual MJO composites this winter due to the competing influences like the +AAM.  It’s possible the WPAC forcing has been driving the much faster Pacific Jet and the +AAM rise the +PNA. So we get the faster Pacific Jet pushing the +PNA ridge axis too far east. It’s not really a pattern combo we have seen before. Since other big +PNA Decembers featured a weakened Pacific Jet and ridge axis anchored along the West Coast allowing big  6”+ snowstorms near NYC. So it looks like more of the same into the first week of January. Beyond the first week we’ll have to monitor if the Jet can weaken enough to allow the ridge to hold near the West Coast. That would be the best chance to try and shift the storm track to more of a coastal track allowing 4” events in NYC. The question then becomes how long can we hold that pattern if we get it before the usual seasonal La Niña more -PNA  pattern emerges during the mid to late winter. And if the recent +AAM can  back against that La Niña seasonal tendency. 

[MJO812]

Webb

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t been getting the usual MJO composites this winter due to the competing influences like the +AAM.  It’s possible the WPAC forcing has been driving the much faster Pacific Jet and the +AAM rise the +PNA. So we get the faster Pacific Jet pushing the +PNA ridge axis too far east. It’s not really a pattern combo we have seen before. Since other big +PNA Decembers featured a weakened Pacific Jet and ridge axis anchored along the West Coast allowing big  6”+ snowstorms near NYC. So it looks like more of the same into the first week of January. Beyond the first week we’ll have to monitor if the Jet can weaken enough to allow the ridge to hold near the West Coast. That would be the best chance to try and shift the storm track to more of a coastal track allowing 4” events in NYC. The question then becomes how long can we hold that pattern if we get it before the usual seasonal La Niña more -PNA  pattern emerges during the mid to late winter. And if the recent +AAM can  back against that La Niña seasonal tendency. 

This will indeed be an interesting winter. Per the Middle Atlantic forum the PDO is rising fast, however, a negative EPO does not benefit us if we have a deep RNA. In rare cases like 95/96 we have a La Nina which never fully results in a deep RNA, same rang true for 2010 2011. 

Given that March can be snowy in a La Nina due to the shorter wavelengths, perhaps we could bridge the gap with a shorter RNA period.