January 2025

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wonder how many great digital day 10-15 snowstorm patterns at 500mb we’re going to shovel this winter? 

I just shoveled 2 events that you busted on. 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wonder how many great digital day 10-15 snowstorm patterns at 500mb we’re going to shovel this winter? 

depends on what people consider a great pattern.

I'll set my markers as follows

If we get at least 4 storms of at least 2-4 inches of snow and single digit cold in at least two outbreaks I'll be happy. We already had one of those 2-4 inch storms in December.

That would be better than either of the last two winters by a long shot.

 

[Allsnow]

EPS pattern is definitely a cold dry look 

[mattinpa]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I wonder how many great digital day 10-15 snowstorm patterns at 500mb we’re going to shovel this winter? 

Probably quite a few but worth it if one big one turns out. Hope you and everyone here has a merry Christmas!

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS pattern is definitely a cold dry look 

Buckle up!

[SnowGoose69]

32 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS pattern is definitely a cold dry look 

 

You wonder if this winter is gonna be like 18-19 inverted.  Models keep trying to show some type of more La Nina pattern beyond D10 and it never develops.

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

You wonder if this winter is gonna be like 18-19 inverted.  Models keep trying to show some type of more La Nina pattern beyond D10 and it never develops.

Yeah we go from worrying about a trough out west to a trough too far East.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Buckle up!

We should. Storms will eventually pop up .

[Allsnow]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Buckle up!

Like clockwork 

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Like clockwork 

i could see us getting 6-10 from a storm that gives rjay 20

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i could see us getting 6-10 from a storm that gives rjay 20

6-10 of sand grains 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i could see us getting 6-10 from a storm that gives rjay 20

Suppression depression 

[forkyfork]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

6-10 of sand grains 

in strong -nao snowy winters we get the death bands and in +nao snowy winters li does

[MJO812]

Just now, forkyfork said:

in strong -nao snowy winters we get the death bands and in +nao snowy winters li does

Positive AO winters also love eastern LI and SNE

[MJO812]

Models are loaded with potential. It's just a matter of time. 

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Suppression depression 

I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't see that. Lower heights out west. There will be shortwaves ejecting. Problem will be some of them cutting vs coastal track 

The risk coming up is suppression , not cutting with the block forming in early January . Gfs just missed with 2 storms.  January 5-10is the 1st timeframe to watch for a snowstorm..

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

EPS pattern is definitely a cold dry look 

I’ve said it 100 times before in this forum and I’ll say it again. There is very rarely ever a solid cold and snowless stretch in winter in New York City. The number one ingredient for snow in New York City/Coastal Plain in the winter is the cold. We almost always at least find some moisture source to give us snow if we have the cold. Could be a clipper, could be a mauler, could be a Miller A, could be a Miller B, but give me as cold as you can possibly give me and it’ll almost always snow in our area. 

In fact for the New York City and coastal plain area, the number one tell for me that there is a good chance there may be snow coming in the next few weeks is when you guys start talking about suppression depression. It almost never fails. 

[brooklynwx99]

51 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’ve said it 100 times before in this forum and I’ll say it again. There is very rarely ever a solid cold and snowless stretch in winter in New York City. The number one ingredient for snow in New York City/Coastal Plain in the winter is the cold. We almost always at least find some moisture source to give us snow if we have the cold. Could be a clipper, could be a mauler, could be a Miller A, could be a Miller B, but give me as cold as you can possibly give me and it’ll almost always snow in our area. 

In fact for the New York City and coastal plain area, the number one tell for me that there is a good chance there may be snow coming in the next few weeks is when you guys start talking about suppression depression. It almost never fails. 

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

[WestBabylonWeather]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i could see us getting 6-10 from a storm that gives rjay 20

Gimme those Long Island specials just like Jan 22

[greenmtnwx]

35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

It almost never happens. even if you go back to December 2010 when we had some extreme cold and some suppression misses, eventually when the deep eastern trough started to lift out we got the inevitable Archimbault event with a big coastal for Boxing Day. if the deep cold for January that we see in the ensembles unfoldS for a couple of weeks, we will get snow.

[psv88]

41 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

I don’t follow this logic. Wouldn’t lower pwats make it more difficult to get alot of snow? There have been many examples of cold and dry patterns. Sure, you may get a snow event when the pattern warms, but that’s when pwats are rising. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, when it’s cold, especially well BN, you have lower PWATs, so you just aren’t dealing with the same amount of moisture than a seasonable or AN temp pattern. it’s quite difficult to get a legitimately cold and not very snowy pattern here

NNE has went 6 weeks plus dry when it’s BN cold so no

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NNE has went 6 weeks plus dry when it’s BN cold so no

This is New York City/coastal plain area, not northern New England

[brooklynwx99]

28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I don’t follow this logic. Wouldn’t lower pwats make it more difficult to get alot of snow? There have been many examples of cold and dry patterns. Sure, you may get a snow event when the pattern warms, but that’s when pwats are rising. 

let’s say the average liquid for a month is 4”. if it’s a cold and dry month in terms of total liquid, it can be -3F and 3” total liquid… there’s less liquid because it’s cold. so it’s technically a “dry” month

however, since you get 10” of snow for every 1” of liquid, that inch less in total liquid doesn’t really matter that much anymore when the proportion of liquid that falls as snow is higher 

[brooklynwx99]

so, if Jan ends up -3F and like -0.5” liquid, i would bet that it’s snowier than average. it’s really tough to predict snowfall though outside of like 7 days

[psv88]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

let’s say the average liquid for a month is 4”. if it’s a cold and dry month in terms of total liquid, it can be -3F and 3” total liquid… there’s less liquid because it’s cold. so it’s technically a “dry” month

however, since you get 10” of snow for every 1” of liquid, that inch less in total liquid doesn’t really matter that much anymore when the proportion of liquid that falls as snow is higher 

That’s not what people mean by cold and dry pattern. Cold and dry refers to the storm track being suppressed south of the area. This happens all the time…

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

That’s not what people mean by cold and dry pattern. Cold and dry refers to the storm track being suppressed south of the area. This happens all the time…

even if you use that definition, i don’t see all that much support for a suppressive pattern. we don’t have a mega south based block or anything like that, and the ridge out west isn’t over the Plains. it’s not super active since there isn’t a roaring STJ like in a Nino, but it’s still favorable for cold and snow 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even if you use that definition, i don’t see all that much support for a suppressive pattern. we don’t have a mega south based block or anything like that, and the ridge out west isn’t over the Plains. it’s not super active since there isn’t a roaring STJ like in a Nino, but it’s still favorable for cold and snow 

We haven’t had a legit nor’easter in a long time. People should just relax and see what happens. It’s possible we get through January with very little snow. Or we could score a few small events, which is where I stand. I think nyc gets around 12” of snow from 3 events combined

[MJO812]

Just now, psv88 said:

We haven’t had a legit nor’easter in a long time. People should just relax and see what happens. It’s possible we get through January with very little snow. Or we could score a few small events, which is where I stand. I think nyc gets around 12” of snow from 3 events combined

We might get 12 inches alone in January if the pattern ahead produces. I agree just sit back and relax though . We haven't had the MJO in our favor in years so that's a big positive.