January 2025

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Let’s discuss 

[NorthShoreWx]

Since we're loosely using relatively light snowfall ranges in Central Park in December as an indicator of snowfall likelihood for the entire winter, there's a risk that inconsistent measurements in the Park skew that sort of analysis.

I get the idea of consistency with different Pacific patterns, but I'm not sold on the idea of Central Park snowfall as a proxy.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just don’t go by tweets like these 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

And this one

[WestBabylonWeather]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And this one

Lol

 

and in the off chance it actually does happen they’ll bump their chests 

[brooklynwx99]

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021

 

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The gefs has moved a little closer to the eps and toward the end of the run looks classic. For what it's worth the geps also looks a little better. Let's see if the EPS old serve.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold.

I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk.

[Eduardo]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

Eh I think that could work as a serviceable “Mexy” setup even to the coast.  The Aleutian low and -EPO is what has me paying the most attention since the PAC has ruined all things holy during these past few winters.

Best look I’ve seen in a few years though.  I def have more confidence in this than last year’s Feb rugpull.  Still a ways out though, so not worth focusing on the deets this early.

[brooklynwx99]

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

By another Met no less  Tis the season...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk.

That whole DJFM was pretty good, cold+snow at least one nice event in all 4 months.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

By another Met no less  Tis the season...

Everyone knows Forky loves to troll. Best to ignore him. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

We got yer back

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS masterclass

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

Keep posting. Love your analysis.  Ignore the trolls.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

The pattern might be ripe for a big storm in January .

50/50 lows

Mjo going into 7 and 8

Negative NAO and AO

Positive PNA

[brooklynwx99]

lol this is pretty much a cave to the EPS guidance

[MJO812]

Nice signal

[eduggs]

12z GFS and CMC don't look great out through fantasyland. Enemble spread and run-to-run changes as usual offer some hope. The 0z ECM was different and a little more encouraging IMO so 12z will be interesting.

A recurring problem I see with Twitter forecasters is they equate modeled negative (blue) 500mb height anomalies with snow. Unfortunately for us coastal plainers, we need more than blue height anomalies at day 10, +PNA, -NAO, favorable MJO etc. We also need very lucky shortwave timing and interaction. Outside the mountainous regions, no snow is always more likely than snow, regardless of the so-called "pattern." That's why the Twitter hype fails far more often than it succeeds. Unfortunately most Twitter Mets overrate their own prognostic abilities and have a poor instinctive sense of bayesian statistics.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z GFS and CMC don't look great out through fantasyland. Enemble spread and run-to-run changes as usual offer some hope. The 0z ECM was different and a little more encouraging IMO so 12z will be interesting.

A recurring problem I see with Twitter forecasters is they equate modeled negative (blue) 500mb height anomalies with snow. Unfortunately for us coastal plainers, we need more than blue height anomalies at day 10, +PNA, -NAO, favorable MJO etc. We also need very lucky shortwave timing and interaction. Outside the mountainous regions, no snow is always more likely than snow, regardless of the so-called "pattern." That's why the Twitter hype fails far more often than it succeeds. Unfortunately most Twitter Mets overrate their own prognostic abilities and have a poor instinctive sense of bayesian statistics.

Still chasing the same carrot out past 300 hours 

 

none of these op runs fwiw look that great inside 7 days 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Still chasing the same carrot out past 300 hours 

 

none of these op runs fwiw look that great inside 7 days 

Yeah, models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet out beyond day 6-10. That’s why 500 mb heights next week along the West Coast will be lower than originally forecast. Same fast northern stream dominant flow from west to east across the country. It has been long range model bias this December and during recent years since 18-19.

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet out beyond day 6-10. That’s why 500 mb heights next week along the West Coast will be lower than originally forecast. Same fast northern stream dominant flow from west to east across the country. This has been the model error pattern this December and during recent years since 18-19.

New run lower heights and faster Jet near the West Coast

 

Old run 

 

 

I get the pretty images on the 300 hours ensembles but people really need to understand that looks has not been verifying as we get closer…

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z GFS and CMC don't look great out through fantasyland. Enemble spread and run-to-run changes as usual offer some hope. The 0z ECM was different and a little more encouraging IMO so 12z will be interesting.

A recurring problem I see with Twitter forecasters is they equate modeled negative (blue) 500mb height anomalies with snow. Unfortunately for us coastal plainers, we need more than blue height anomalies at day 10, +PNA, -NAO, favorable MJO etc. We also need very lucky shortwave timing and interaction. Outside the mountainous regions, no snow is always more likely than snow, regardless of the so-called "pattern." That's why the Twitter hype fails far more often than it succeeds. Unfortunately most Twitter Mets overrate their own prognostic abilities and have a poor instinctive sense of bayesian statistics.

Are you serious?  Both models look really nice after NYD. Snow threats will eventually pop up .

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet out beyond day 6-10. That’s why 500 mb heights next week along the West Coast will be lower than originally forecast. Same fast northern stream dominant flow from west to east across the country. It has been long range model bias this December and during recent years since 18-19.

New run lower heights and faster Pacific Jet near the West Coast

 

Old run 

 

 

I don't see anything wrong with the gefs and eps.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I get the pretty images on the 300 hours ensembles but people really need to understand that looks has not been verifying as we get closer…

In the past it hasn't but how can we make the same assumption ? This winter is already starting out better than the past winters. Enjoy model watching and the pattern changing after next week.

[forkyfork]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I get the pretty images on the 300 hours ensembles but people really need to understand that looks has not been verifying as we get closer…

it's been stuck at 300 hours for the past three years

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, models continue to underestimate the strength of the Pacific Jet out beyond day 6-10. That’s why 500 mb heights next week along the West Coast will be lower than originally forecast. Same fast northern stream dominant flow from west to east across the country. It has been long range model bias this December and during recent years since 18-19.

New run lower heights and faster Pacific Jet near the West Coast

 

Old run 

 

 

Would not surprise me in the slightest if we are in a full blown -PNA regime after mid-January. This La Niña is not going to be denied. The Niña strengthening we’ve seen since November to this point in time has been nothing short of historic for this late in the season. The response in the NPAC is just lagged. This winter would have to completely defy the laws of physics to never see a canonical response