Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted Monday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 AM Let’s discuss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted Monday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 12:45 PM Since we're loosely using relatively light snowfall ranges in Central Park in December as an indicator of snowfall likelihood for the entire winter, there's a risk that inconsistent measurements in the Park skew that sort of analysis. I get the idea of consistency with different Pacific patterns, but I'm not sold on the idea of Central Park snowfall as a proxy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago Just don’t go by tweets like these 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago And this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And this one Lol and in the off chance it actually does happen they’ll bump their chests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021 Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, EastonSN+ said: The gefs has moved a little closer to the eps and toward the end of the run looks classic. For what it's worth the geps also looks a little better. Let's see if the EPS old serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 17 minutes ago, psv88 said: Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold. I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 34 minutes ago, psv88 said: Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. Eh I think that could work as a serviceable “Mexy” setup even to the coast. The Aleutian low and -EPO is what has me paying the most attention since the PAC has ruined all things holy during these past few winters. Best look I’ve seen in a few years though. I def have more confidence in this than last year’s Feb rugpull. Still a ways out though, so not worth focusing on the deets this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place By another Met no less Tis the season... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk. That whole DJFM was pretty good, cold+snow at least one nice event in all 4 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: By another Met no less Tis the season... Everyone knows Forky loves to troll. Best to ignore him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place We got yer back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago GEFS masterclass 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place Keep posting. Love your analysis. Ignore the trolls. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. The pattern might be ripe for a big storm in January . 50/50 lows Mjo going into 7 and 8 Negative NAO and AO Positive PNA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now