January 2025

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Let’s discuss 

[NorthShoreWx]

Since we're loosely using relatively light snowfall ranges in Central Park in December as an indicator of snowfall likelihood for the entire winter, there's a risk that inconsistent measurements in the Park skew that sort of analysis.

I get the idea of consistency with different Pacific patterns, but I'm not sold on the idea of Central Park snowfall as a proxy.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just don’t go by tweets like these 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

And this one

[WestBabylonWeather]

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

And this one

Lol

 

and in the off chance it actually does happen they’ll bump their chests 

[brooklynwx99]

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021

 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place

now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall

regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm since Feb 2021

 

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The gefs has moved a little closer to the eps and toward the end of the run looks classic. For what it's worth the geps also looks a little better. Let's see if the EPS old serve.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold.

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It does seem like January 2009 would be a good analog, smaller events but long duration snow cover with the cold.

I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk.

[Eduardo]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

Eh I think that could work as a serviceable “Mexy” setup even to the coast.  The Aleutian low and -EPO is what has me paying the most attention since the PAC has ruined all things holy during these past few winters.

Best look I’ve seen in a few years though.  I def have more confidence in this than last year’s Feb rugpull.  Still a ways out though, so not worth focusing on the deets this early.

[brooklynwx99]

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

[uofmiami]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

By another Met no less  Tis the season...

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I would sign up for 2009 in a heartbeat that was a really good January up here. The winter as a whole ended up with 42 inches in my hometown then of Norwalk.

That whole DJFM was pretty good, cold+snow at least one nice event in all 4 months.

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

By another Met no less  Tis the season...

Everyone knows Forky loves to troll. Best to ignore him. 

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

We got yer back

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS masterclass

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol imagine getting weenied for pattern analysis. the absolute state of this place

Keep posting. Love your analysis.  Ignore the trolls.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Reasons for optimism for sure. Still not a classic pattern for a KU. Maybe some smaller to moderate events which we take. But I’m not seeing anything which is favorable for a MECS. 
 

Hopefully we can get a few weeks of real winter in January. I am not expecting any big storms for the metro/coast, but I think some smaller events are on the table. 

The pattern might be ripe for a big storm in January .

50/50 lows

Mjo going into 7 and 8

Negative NAO and AO

Positive PNA

[brooklynwx99]

lol this is pretty much a cave to the EPS guidance

[MJO812]

Nice signal

[eduggs]

12z GFS and CMC don't look great out through fantasyland. Enemble spread and run-to-run changes as usual offer some hope. The 0z ECM was different and a little more encouraging IMO so 12z will be interesting.

A recurring problem I see with Twitter forecasters is they equate modeled negative (blue) 500mb height anomalies with snow. Unfortunately for us coastal plainers, we need more than blue height anomalies at day 10, +PNA, -NAO, favorable MJO etc. We also need very lucky shortwave timing and interaction. Outside the mountainous regions, no snow is always more likely than snow, regardless of the so-called "pattern." That's why the Twitter hype fails far more often than it succeeds. Unfortunately most Twitter Mets overrate their own prognostic abilities and have a poor instinctive sense of bayesian statistics.

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

12z GFS and CMC don't look great out through fantasyland. Enemble spread and run-to-run changes as usual offer some hope. The 0z ECM was different and a little more encouraging IMO so 12z will be interesting.

A recurring problem I see with Twitter forecasters is they equate modeled negative (blue) 500mb height anomalies with snow. Unfortunately for us coastal plainers, we need more than blue height anomalies at day 10, +PNA, -NAO, favorable MJO etc. We also need very lucky shortwave timing and interaction. Outside the mountainous regions, no snow is always more likely than snow, regardless of the so-called "pattern." That's why the Twitter hype fails far more often than it succeeds. Unfortunately most Twitter Mets overrate their own prognostic abilities and have a poor instinctive sense of bayesian statistics.

Still chasing the same carrot out past 300 hours 

 

none of these op runs fwiw look that great inside 7 days