winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: A late save by the Ukie for northern folks. Congrats to all for playing. Cmc. And ukie are very similar. Gfs was alot More south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, yoda said: Close up view from PW Everyone gets nearly the same, I’d take this in a heartbeat. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Do you have start and end times and temps? For DC metro? It's mainly day event on Monday. Snow starts around daybreak... ends in the evening. Temperatures in the mid 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hard to put any stock in the gfs solution for the 10th given how bouncy it’s been for the 6th, but it’s illustrative for the ingredients of a classic miller A. Here’s the setup at 500mb. Strong southern shortwave (green) and northern shortwave diving in (blue). To turn the coast, we’d want this all shifted west by a couple-few hundred miles. Not a major shift at D10. Then on the next panel, you can see that they don’t quite phase completely. If they did, that would also help pull it north. Still pretty close for d10. Not bad at all for 10 days!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gefs 12z top 6z bottom. Does include .4-.5 from Saturday. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Close up view from PW Hagerstown to Short Pump…don’t see that often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Everyone gets nearly the same, I’d take this in a heartbeat. For first real snow of season ill take it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, yoda said: For DC metro? It's mainly day event on Monday. Snow starts around daybreak... ends in the evening. Temperatures in the mid 20s Yea and thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, T. August said: Gefs 12z top 6z bottom. Does include .4-.5 from Friday. Was just about to post the PW version, with the 24-hour option: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ok. Correct me if I'm wrong but the gfs ensembles were much farther north compared to the Op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Legit chance for snow on snow on snow over the next next week. It's been awhile. Who’s ready for 12 inches of glacier? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 A Lot of weenies in here today. Grasping at whatever model is good for the backyard lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Ok. Correct me if I'm wrong but the gfs ensembles were much farther north compared to the Op run? Generally, although there are about 5 or so bad misses to the south like the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Surprised to see ukie colder than cmc, maybe a good sign. Both are around the same caliber for model verification, close behind euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Quite the temp gradient on the 12z UKIE right after the storm; on monday night, DCA is 22 while CHO is 3 Same thing Tuesday night... DCA 27, EZF 11, CHO -5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 WB 12Z GEFS members 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, bncho said: This winter was expected to be a bum. Now we might be looking at AN snowfall and BN temps. It is absolutely too early to be discussing seasonal temp results when astronomical winter started like 11 days ago. And seasonal precip too for that matter. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: A Lot of weenies in here today. Grasping at whatever model is good for the backyard lol You new here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, bncho said: This winter was expected to be a bum. Now we might be looking at AN snowfall and BN temps. Let’s not spike the football until we have real not digital snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: If this pans and roads are decent we gotta do a meet up. Ebbits doesn’t do the half price anymore and do any of you guys have a favored raw bar close to city but not necessarily in it? I can pick you up if needed and would be a pleasure ! We actually haven't found a new hangout yet. We need to find a new wx nerd HQ and I'm in! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Euro is most important today as other models have been trending towards it. Important to see if it holds serve or starts trending a dif direction. Last night you guys were hugging the gfs at midnight now you could careless cause its not good for your backyards. You guys are funny when it comes to snow. 1 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, mappy said: Kinda wish half here would too tbh Yeah, I had a slip up with that pbp. was kinda my fault with the cascading bad calls. And I'm kinda hungover. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, jlewis1111 said: Euro is most important today as other models have been trending towards it. Important to see if it holds serve or starts trending a dif direction. Last night you guys were hugging the gfs at midnight now you could careless cause its not good for your backyards. You guys are funny when it comes to snow. Well one, the gfs is the worst model currently and two its own ens don’t really agree with it. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera That claw that stops at my yard in NE baltimore is something, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, jlewis1111 said: Look at my post count do I look new? Just spit out facts makes sense that you are post-limited. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. When they stop looking better than the op 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Refresh my memory on when we should stop looking at ensembles.... I generally would stop leaning on them inside five days. Probably not till like 72hrs out. You don’t stop looking at them inside 5 days lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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