winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:36 PM All big storms trend north. Is a big rule of thumb.. happens 90% of the time... especially when there still 100+ hours left lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:37 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Head to Buffalo and make a left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM I like the 10-11th where it is now. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:39 PM Not as strong as the 12z GFS, but CMC also has something cooking day 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Wednesday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:40 PM 44 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha Can you give a run down on where you are now vs before and what prompted? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Wednesday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:42 PM 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:42 PM Looking like one of the most active, cold snowy months we've had in here in a long time peeps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:45 PM 12z Ukie height lines are further north than 0z at 102hrs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM Just now, mitchnick said: 12z Ukie height lines are further north than 0z at 102hrs. SLP is over NSH at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:46 PM CHO is ripping snow at 117 and 120 on 12z UKIE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:47 PM Atlantic monster putting up a better fight I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM 11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: All big storms trend north. Is a big rule of thumb.. happens 90% of the time... especially when there still 100+ hours left lol With a strong -NAO not nearly as often. Some of the least track insanity inside 72-96 occurs in patterns like 09-10 or now when things are slowed down by the NAO. You won't often see massive changes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Hard to put any stock in the gfs solution for the 10th given how bouncy it’s been for the 6th, but it’s illustrative for the ingredients of a classic miller A. Here’s the setup at 500mb. Strong southern shortwave (green) and northern shortwave diving in (blue). To turn the coast, we’d want this all shifted west by a couple-few hundred miles. Not a major shift at D10. Then on the next panel, you can see that they don’t quite phase completely. If they did, that would also help pull it north. Still pretty close for d10. 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM 27 minutes ago, Shad said: One concern with a storm like this and most Miller B type storms is there is usually a transfer of Low Pressure to the Coast and a dry slot where certain areas get screwed.....wouldnt be suprised if someone in VA gets dry slotted with this event DC typically gets very little with the transfer. Good overrunning and then drizzles out . Northeast MD to NYC gets the transfer snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:49 PM Ukie is faster with our s/w, giving Atlantic system time to hang around longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Ripping snow N VA/DC/MD 126 on 12z UKIE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Not a fan of the Ukie but it does hammer 2/3 of VA with a Warning level event as dipicted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:51 PM Man NE must've really pissed off the snow gods at some point. Hate that for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: With a strong -NAO not nearly as often. Some of the least track insanity inside 72-96 occurs in patterns like 09-10 or now when things are slowed down by the NAO. You won't often see massive changes. Even a change of 50 to 75 Miles north would make alot of people happy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM 1 minute ago, Shad said: Not a fan of the Ukie but it does hammer 2/3 of VA with a Warning level event as dipicted Send amounts please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM UKIE way south from 0z and now in line with everything else. We have pretty broad agreement on a good surface low track below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:52 PM Ukie Kuchera 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Just now, bncho said: Send amounts please. 6"+ for all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM A late save by the Ukie for northern folks. Congrats to all for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Just now, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera I like the wiggle room south of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:53 PM Just now, yoda said: 6"+ for all And it’s cold too, 25 in DC all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:54 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie Kuchera The difference in one run is lol worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:54 PM Just now, nj2va said: I like the wiggle room south of us. Wiggle north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:55 PM Close up view from PW 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Wednesday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:55 PM 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Ripping snow N VA/DC/MD 126 on 12z UKIE Do you have start and end times and temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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