January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Terpeast]

CMC splits the difference between the GFS and euro

[H2O]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yoda, I have two things. 
 

First, the black and white maps do look decent to my trained eye. Have to take a closer look once the other visuals are out. 
 

Second, I’m gonna start billing you for my eye doctor after all these years trying to read these damn things 

The year is 2025 and yoda loves him some maps that were made by a fortran computer from 1985.  

But to the models, there will still be wiggle as pieces have yet to get into place that will either smush(legit weather term) the storm south or let it punch north more.  

 

As we all know the area just south of where the precip hits the wall of confluence does very well.  Between that and ortho lift it squeezes out all moisture

[yoda]

Also note the warm layer on the 12z cmc is 750 to 800 level.  Everything else in the column is good

[IronTy]

As a Michigan native I've always identified as more Canadian anyway.  

[Terpeast]

One positive out of a faster storm is we'll get snow starting at night or early morning hours. Easier stickage.

CMC gets dangerously close to mixing here, but is the warmest of the 3 models so far this cycle.

[rjvanals]

Canadian is a long duration event which is good

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Yoda, I have two things. 
 

First, the black and white maps do look decent to my trained eye. Have to take a closer look once the other visuals are out. 
 

Second, I’m gonna start billing you for my eye doctor after all these years trying to read these damn things 

Would you rather have those or Chuck's maps? Lol

[NorthArlington101]

[Shad]

One concern with a storm like this and most Miller B type storms is there is usually a transfer of Low Pressure to the Coast and a dry slot where certain areas get screwed.....wouldnt be suprised if someone in VA gets dry slotted with this event

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

[yoda]

@Terpeast @MillvilleWx

Question - 12z CMC shows sleet nearby.  However, checking the column/soundings, only the 750mb to around 800mb level (maybe 825mb) goes above 0c.  EZF at 120 has it around 1C.  Is that enough to wreck snow accumulation?  The warm zone is so small that I don't think it would make a big deal?

[Terpeast]

Thinking those snowfall maps are generous on the south side of that band, but the CMC always been close to mixing along I-66 the past several runs. It hasn't really changed except moving the storm along faster.

[rjvanals]

Let’s see if the GFS can get us something on the 10th 

[Shad]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

Let’s see if the GFS can get us something on the 10th 

10th has my attention......improvement from the 6z run for sure

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, rjvanals said:

Let’s see if the GFS can get us something on the 10th 

I think the 10th has a better shot to be the event S/SE snow weenies have been dreaming of for years.

[87storms]

Let’s see if the GFS can get us something on the 10th 

Trough looks a little too far east.

[Shad]

GFS is a monster snowstorm for Alabama, Georgia, SC   Wow

[mitchnick]

Just now, 87storms said:

Trough looks a little too far east.

with that monster trough off the east coast, we'll need it there to pull it north

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, mitchnick said:

with that monster trough off the east coast, we'll need it there to pull it north

It’s really close!  The potential is definitely there. 

[Shad]

into NC at 222....SC getting destroyed

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

HP is a few mb stronger on the 12z ICON at 96 compared to the 06z run at 102

And I think this may allow some more south to show up. It’s big, strong, expansive area Mongol cold. It’s natural for suppression to show in forecasts.  What I will be watching closely is baro 12 hours out.  This is what PSU and I talked about how I kinda do things from ground up whereas you guys learned the more developed methods.  Yet they both work and it was the terminology of  our methods that sometimes created personal conflicts.  
I am hopeful for a great and exciting observation thread!!!

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s really close!  The potential is definitely there. 

Yeah. The 9-12th has trended much better.

[psuhoffman]

I like that all guidance is leaving the decaying boundary across our area after the initial WAA  thump. Right now qpf is paltry but often that ends up being where the best accumulation is. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Where do I sign for the Canadian?

[Shad]

This storm was caught on the models several days and now its back in a bit of a different form.....a true slow crawling potential Miller A......  Blizzard for the Carolinas.....no way that doesnt trend North over time

[mitchnick]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Where do I sign for the Canadian?

Head to Buffalo and make a left.

[Buddy1987]

My lord.. HR 222 if that thing can turn and come up the coast what a bomb!

[rjvanals]

10-11th is close to be being real good for us and it’s good to see a storm is showing up at this long range 

[Scraff]

LFG!

[WEATHER53]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gun against my head, if I had to guess...I'd say it'll come a little north

If this pans and roads are decent we gotta do a meet up. Ebbits doesn’t do the half price anymore and do any of you guys have a favored raw bar close to city but not necessarily in it?

I can pick you up if needed and would be a pleasure !