Interstate Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Maybe just maybe the GFS is onto something. It has been constantly pushing the QPF south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Interstate said: Maybe just maybe the GFS is onto something. It has been constantly pushing the QPF south. We like it south this far out..we do we really do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: CMC is also a bit faster at hr 78 Old school maps look good at 120 imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I've never been so ashamed of being an American as I am now. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Raging sleet storm down this way. Hopefully it is out on its own island with driving the low into western KY at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I also would've guessed north... not a good run verbatim.The fact that we had thunderstorms yesterday on Dec 31 makes me question how much cold/suppression there’s gonna be lol. I still like where we’re at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Interstate said: Maybe just maybe the GFS is onto something. It has been constantly pushing the QPF south. Or the GFS is just on something. Gonna hold onto that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, yoda said: Old school maps look good at 120 imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, yoda said: Old school maps look good at 120 imo CMC s/w is more robust than GFS. But wave spacing is going to be a delicate issue for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Most will like the CMC but its going to be an icy mess for alot of Virginia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I like the run, a surface low track from Kentucky to coastal Carolina works well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Terpeast said: CMC s/w is more robust than GFS. But wave spacing is going to be a delicate issue for us. 6-12 hours is going to be significant here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: CMC s/w is more robust than GFS. But wave spacing is going to be a delicate issue for us. FYI to everyone - you can get the CMC a little early in color out to 120 here: https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Does look like most will like the 12z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, 87storms said: The fact that we had thunderstorms yesterday on Dec 31 makes me question how much cold/suppression there’s gonna be lol. I still like where we’re at. Maybe...but we can get cold season thunderstorms on the leading edge of a major pattern change as a strong/dynamic front goes through. Seemingly that's more what happened yesterday. Dynamic/strong system ushers in a regime change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Yoda, I have two things. First, the black and white maps do look decent to my trained eye. Have to take a closer look once the other visuals are out. Second, I’m gonna start billing you for my eye doctor after all these years trying to read these damn things 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 all guidance this morning now suggests this things moves in faster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC is good If this keeps speeding up it will be here Sunday night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Mod snow for most of c into n va at 114 on 12z cmc. Icy mess as you get to CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’ll take the cmc and run for the hills. 20 degrees and dumping snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC looks pretty good per the color maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ripping snow DC metro at 120... but ping ping ping isn't far away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC splits the difference between the GFS and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: Yoda, I have two things. First, the black and white maps do look decent to my trained eye. Have to take a closer look once the other visuals are out. Second, I’m gonna start billing you for my eye doctor after all these years trying to read these damn things The year is 2025 and yoda loves him some maps that were made by a fortran computer from 1985. But to the models, there will still be wiggle as pieces have yet to get into place that will either smush(legit weather term) the storm south or let it punch north more. As we all know the area just south of where the precip hits the wall of confluence does very well. Between that and ortho lift it squeezes out all moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Also note the warm layer on the 12z cmc is 750 to 800 level. Everything else in the column is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 As a Michigan native I've always identified as more Canadian anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 One positive out of a faster storm is we'll get snow starting at night or early morning hours. Easier stickage. CMC gets dangerously close to mixing here, but is the warmest of the 3 models so far this cycle. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Canadian is a long duration event which is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Yoda, I have two things. First, the black and white maps do look decent to my trained eye. Have to take a closer look once the other visuals are out. Second, I’m gonna start billing you for my eye doctor after all these years trying to read these damn things Would you rather have those or Chuck's maps? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 One concern with a storm like this and most Miller B type storms is there is usually a transfer of Low Pressure to the Coast and a dry slot where certain areas get screwed.....wouldnt be suprised if someone in VA gets dry slotted with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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