psuhoffman Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:21 PM 20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. Pure powder though. Start to finish. Rare at my house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yesss bring it a touch north!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. I’d love .5” qpf with temps in the 20s. Sign me the F up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. That would fit the six year drought of non-winter storm warning level events we are working on up this way, so, sure. I think I am permanently scarred from the January 2022 horror-show miss up this way... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Haven't seen y'all this happy in a while. Happy new year, the models say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:26 PM Kuchie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:27 PM Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone.Let’s hope that that 90% rule works out. We have a chance for a rare double digit snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 03:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:27 PM Still over 110 hours away. Models will meander north and south till we get within 48hours. But hell .35 or .40 of liquid could be 6 or 7 inches with 20-1 or 15-1 ratios with temps in low 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:29 PM 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Kuchie Yeah - the reason this isn’t as awesome as the EURO has been when you flip to Kuchera is that the ICON is warmer at the surface than other guidance. Held my tongue on that til you posted that since it’s the ICON, lol. It would all stick, but it’s like 31 in DC. Takes up til MD/PA border to get into the mid-20s. Seems to be on a bit of an island, but I guess verbatim ratios wouldn’t “save” folks this time. It’s pretty much the 10:1 map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:30 PM 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Kuchie maybe a verified warning criteria out of this one. And extended vacation for the schools. Both require dry January to be pushed out a bit further. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:31 PM 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I honestly wouldn't want to be up there right now lol. Looks south to me. Good thing you’re not cause we don’t care what you think. We live here, we know what happens the majority of the time. Also still 4-5 days out. We lost storms in 3-4 days our before and seen massive shifts inside 72hrs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah - the reason this isn’t as awesome as the EURO has been when you flip to Kuchera is that the ICON is warmer at the surface than other guidance. Held my tongue on that til you posted that since it’s the ICON, lol. It would all stick, but it’s like 31 in DC. Takes up til MD/PA border to get into the mid-20s. Seems to be on a bit of an island, but I guess verbatim ratios wouldn’t save folks this time. It’s pretty much the 10:1 map. Those Beemers run hot ya' know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Just now, dailylurker said: You're right. Storm always end up there. Try my climo near Annopoils lol I’m sure you will be in a good spot for this one. But the northern folks should also probably see a better result. But who knows we suck at snow anymore so a complete fail wouldn’t shock me either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Just now, TSSN+ said: I’m sure you will be in a good spot for this one. But the northern folks should also probably see a better result. But who knows we suck at snow anymore so a complete fail wouldn’t shock me either I'd love for us all to score for once. Fingers crossed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol I thought smith mountain lake was a snow haven? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM Euro has been so consistent the past 4+ runs.....other models getting closer but still jumping around a bit. Fredericksburg seems to be a good place to be for this one based on the current modeling but that can change quickly...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. Depends what’s model you believe if it’s 25 and snowing in the northern side I’m sure ratios will be higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM 12Z is running. Get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Probably too early to look at this really, but I’m skeptical of ratios much higher than 10:1 in warm sector snowfall. I’m curious at what type of ratios we come up with over the weekend at the winter desk. I’d wager an avg of 10-11:1 for most here, but some of the better FGEN banding will probably poke 14-15:1, especially the 7H FGEN which will lie on the northern edge of the best QPF. Still fun to talk about snow in these parts before the hammer drops. Will feel like deep winter. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM 3 minutes ago, Shad said: Euro has been so consistent the past 4+ runs.....other models getting closer but still jumping around a bit. Fredericksburg seems to be a good place to be for this one based on the current modeling but that can change quickly...... Thus far, anyone in North-Central Virginia is in the game for this one so far-but it is early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:42 PM 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll embezzle the icon no problem. 2-3" snow, lots of grape nuts, then zr finish. 1" liquid. The 3 county plow trucks would be busy lol Dang that's all y'all got down there? Lol How big is the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Let’s hope that that 90% rule works out. We have a chance for a rare double digit snowfall I would be totally happy with 4-6” down here if it meant everyone got in on some significant snowfall. Icon was about as close to perfect as you could hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM Canadian looks fairly similar to the 00z at 120hrs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:48 PM 11 minutes ago, IronTy said: 12Z is running. Get to work. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 03:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:54 PM 13 minutes ago, Ji said: I thought smith mountain lake was a snow haven? Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha 9 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:56 PM 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol nah. I downgraded snow climo with no regrets. Living down here is too sweet to care. Just chillin on the deck waiting for the slopfest one of these days Smith mtn will get shellacked and i will be sure to remind you daily hahaha Hi Bob. Congrats! What's ur elevation and Smith mtn? Are there roads over it to weenie out in marginal events? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM So far…gfs is a tick stronger in the plains and quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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