Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 12:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:45 PM Looking ahead, some ridging is trying to push into Alaska again, which would keep the EPO from going too positive. 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:08 PM 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Nice set of 0z and 6z runs. The south trend needed to stop and it did. This is now within 5 days. Confidence is ticking higher. Nice consistency across the guidance with ~120 hours to go. Let’s keep it going. I think by tomorrows 12z runs or definitely 0z Friday, we can feel really good if we have similar looks. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Wednesday at 01:11 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:11 PM 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice consistency across the guidance with ~120 hours to go. Let’s keep it going. I think by tomorrows 12z runs or definitely 0z Friday, we can feel really good if we have similar looks. Happy New Year, get well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:18 PM 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looking ahead, some ridging is trying to push into Alaska again, which would keep the EPO from going too positive. I feel quite confident that this general LW pattern will insert its influence for 4-6 weeks. Certainly not foot to the floor the entire time but just never getting too far out of whack and a propensity to look like the above prog on the balance. A good analogy with models would by JFM 2014 and 2015. Lots of breakdowns that never happened. The tracks have been set imo. Maybe we get a big relax and reload but my money is in this general theme until poof in real time 26 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted Wednesday at 01:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:27 PM Over here in VA in the Allegheny mtns hoping the south trend continues like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Wednesday at 01:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:32 PM National Blend of all models looks really good, with dc in the middle of the stripe around 5 inches. Then you have the EPS striping us and the Euro with the stripe just south of us. That’s about as good a consensus as we can ask for showing a solid moderate event with no precip type issues. Another day or two to iron out the details and hopefully juice it up a little but this is looking great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted Wednesday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:08 PM Good morning and happy new year everyone! Love the 0z and 6z looks. 2025 is off to great start! Let’s keep this ball rolling until it becomes a big fluffy snowball. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:21 PM 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: 6z Eps 24 hr snowfall My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Wednesday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:27 PM 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: Happy New Year, get well Thanks. Feeling most of the way to 100%. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Wednesday at 02:31 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:31 PM 8 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. Believe me, I remain totally paranoid on this one as a miss for all of us remains a viable option at 4-5 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:34 PM 12 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. Anything but a miss to the south lol. The goal post seem to like the region as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 PM 12 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. I want to have a southern cushion at this point. We all know the drill...as long as this thing isn't showing a N.C storm but a Richmond to Fredericksburg instead I'm good for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:41 PM 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Believe me, I remain totally paranoid on this one as a miss for all of us remains a viable option at 4-5 days out. Nice to see ya back Mitch This is where perspective is important. 50-100 mile shifts are really tiny on a global model but make or break on the ground lol. These narrow WAA stripes simply cannot be nailed down yet. Models are narrowing the spread but even 50 miles 48 hours in advance is a small shift. Unless things blip out, I don't want to hear models are all over the place because they aren't even close to that rn lol I'm still stuck on my initial gut feel down here. Hopefully an inch, a boom at 3", and mixing is a near guaranty lol I wouldn't discount Lake Anna jacks or that general area. This is the exact kind of setup that has jacked them in the past. The northern edge is going to be sharp AF too. Pac man will be chowing down 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted Wednesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:43 PM 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nice to see ya back Mitch This is where perspective is important. 50-100 mile shifts are really tiny on a global model but make or break on the ground lol. These narrow WAA stripes simply cannot be nailed down yet. Models are narrowing the spread but even 50 miles 48 hours in advance is a small shift. Unless things blip out, I don't want to hear models are all over the place because they aren't even close to that rn lol I'm still stuck on my initial gut feel down here. Hopefully an inch, a boom at 3", and mixing is a near guaranty lol I wouldn't discount Lake Anna jacks or that general area. This is the exact kind of setup that has jacked them in the past. The northern edge is going to be sharp AF too. Pac man will be chowing down So basically North-Central VA from Louisa over to Caroline county over to Ashland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:43 PM 21 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. Yeah - this is what I’m tracking today. Unlike what @Ji said yesterday, storms come back from the south. When things go north, it’s harder. We got lucky twice last year, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Wednesday at 02:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:45 PM Just now, JFLETCHER said: So basically North-Central VA from Louisa over to Caroline county over to Ashland area. History and climo favors the DMV general area but the setup is similar other more rare southern hits. We haven't had blocking and confluence like this in a long time but we've had plenty over the years. Stuff can get bullied south without much fanfare 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:46 PM 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah - this is what I’m tracking today. Unlike what @Ji said yesterday, storms come back from the south. When things go north, it’s harder. We got lucky twice last year, though. True, but I doubt it's going to go much farther north with that TPV in place and the confluence acting like a brick wall to our NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:49 PM 1 minute ago, yoda said: True, but I doubt it's going to go much farther north with that TPV in place and the confluence acting like a brick wall to our NE I don’t disagree - in general love the spot folks are in. And definitely taking @Bob Chill’s last few messages into account that it might be worth worrying more about a south shift. Just doing worst-case scenario thinking. Would love 5-10” of snow cover when I get back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM 20 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: DAS!!! Man, between you and @mitchnick here, I'm getting all the nostalgia feels. Hope you are doing well! Starting to travel to DC (and stay in the Clarksburg place) more often again. It'll be nice to check in on you hooligans when I am in town. Especially since you all may be stealing all the New England snow in this pattern... 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:59 PM As Ji (and others as well) would say, biggest 12z runs of our lives have started 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Wednesday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:00 PM 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Wednesday at 03:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:08 PM 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! North is of course our biggest failure mode. That’s why it’s nice to have the op euro on the southern end of the envelope right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM 12 minutes ago, yoda said: As Ji (and others as well) would say, biggest 12z runs of our lives have started You could even say the biggest 12z runs of the year 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:12 PM 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. I'm in baltimore county ( north central md) so I'm hoping for a north tick too :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Wednesday at 03:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:13 PM Just spitballing based on gut feel, no real scientific reasoning. I think the best waa banding will occur just to the north of me. Hopefully I can stay within that band too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: I'm in baltimore county ( north central md) so I'm hoping for a north tick too Me too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Just now, frd said: Me too Hey neighbor!!! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Wednesday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:16 PM HP is a few mb stronger on the 12z ICON at 96 compared to the 06z run at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. Yep! I think we see some good snow out of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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