aldie 22 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. I want to have a southern cushion at this point. We all know the drill...as long as this thing isn't showing a N.C storm but a Richmond to Fredericksburg instead I'm good for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Believe me, I remain totally paranoid on this one as a miss for all of us remains a viable option at 4-5 days out. Nice to see ya back Mitch This is where perspective is important. 50-100 mile shifts are really tiny on a global model but make or break on the ground lol. These narrow WAA stripes simply cannot be nailed down yet. Models are narrowing the spread but even 50 miles 48 hours in advance is a small shift. Unless things blip out, I don't want to hear models are all over the place because they aren't even close to that rn lol I'm still stuck on my initial gut feel down here. Hopefully an inch, a boom at 3", and mixing is a near guaranty lol I wouldn't discount Lake Anna jacks or that general area. This is the exact kind of setup that has jacked them in the past. The northern edge is going to be sharp AF too. Pac man will be chowing down 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JFLETCHER Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Nice to see ya back Mitch This is where perspective is important. 50-100 mile shifts are really tiny on a global model but make or break on the ground lol. These narrow WAA stripes simply cannot be nailed down yet. Models are narrowing the spread but even 50 miles 48 hours in advance is a small shift. Unless things blip out, I don't want to hear models are all over the place because they aren't even close to that rn lol I'm still stuck on my initial gut feel down here. Hopefully an inch, a boom at 3", and mixing is a near guaranty lol I wouldn't discount Lake Anna jacks or that general area. This is the exact kind of setup that has jacked them in the past. The northern edge is going to be sharp AF too. Pac man will be chowing down So basically North-Central VA from Louisa over to Caroline county over to Ashland area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 21 minutes ago, T. August said: My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix. Yeah - this is what I’m tracking today. Unlike what @Ji said yesterday, storms come back from the south. When things go north, it’s harder. We got lucky twice last year, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, JFLETCHER said: So basically North-Central VA from Louisa over to Caroline county over to Ashland area. History and climo favors the DMV general area but the setup is similar other more rare southern hits. We haven't had blocking and confluence like this in a long time but we've had plenty over the years. Stuff can get bullied south without much fanfare 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah - this is what I’m tracking today. Unlike what @Ji said yesterday, storms come back from the south. When things go north, it’s harder. We got lucky twice last year, though. True, but I doubt it's going to go much farther north with that TPV in place and the confluence acting like a brick wall to our NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, yoda said: True, but I doubt it's going to go much farther north with that TPV in place and the confluence acting like a brick wall to our NE I don’t disagree - in general love the spot folks are in. And definitely taking @Bob Chill’s last few messages into account that it might be worth worrying more about a south shift. Just doing worst-case scenario thinking. Would love 5-10” of snow cover when I get back! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: DAS!!! Man, between you and @mitchnick here, I'm getting all the nostalgia feels. Hope you are doing well! Starting to travel to DC (and stay in the Clarksburg place) more often again. It'll be nice to check in on you hooligans when I am in town. Especially since you all may be stealing all the New England snow in this pattern... 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 As Ji (and others as well) would say, biggest 12z runs of our lives have started 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: To be clear, 2/3 runs does not a trend make, but these are the "shifts" from 00z to 06z I noticed flipping through my phone this morning. North is the thing I'd be sweating still if I had more skin in the game, just because that's because we've been burned that way previously. Probably irrational lol but fears are learned through experience. These do also show a general ramping up of higher snowfall odds in general... take that to the bank folks! North is of course our biggest failure mode. That’s why it’s nice to have the op euro on the southern end of the envelope right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, yoda said: As Ji (and others as well) would say, biggest 12z runs of our lives have started You could even say the biggest 12z runs of the year 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. I'm in baltimore county ( north central md) so I'm hoping for a north tick too :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just spitballing based on gut feel, no real scientific reasoning. I think the best waa banding will occur just to the north of me. Hopefully I can stay within that band too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: I'm in baltimore county ( north central md) so I'm hoping for a north tick too Me too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, frd said: Me too Hey neighbor!!! Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 HP is a few mb stronger on the 12z ICON at 96 compared to the 06z run at 102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. Yep! I think we see some good snow out of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Man that looks sexy. Sped up a bit vs. 6Z, better matching the Euro's timing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, yoda said: HP is a few mb stronger on the 12z ICON at 96 compared to the 06z run at 102 Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 20 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Storms trend north like 90% of the time even if it’s only 50-75 miles. So I like where I’m at on the PA line at this point. 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. Pure powder though. Start to finish. Rare at my house. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yesss bring it a touch north!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. I’d love .5” qpf with temps in the 20s. Sign me the F up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone. That would fit the six year drought of non-winter storm warning level events we are working on up this way, so, sure. I think I am permanently scarred from the January 2022 horror-show miss up this way... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Haven't seen y'all this happy in a while. Happy new year, the models say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Kuchie 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Yeah just like that ICON is south - though still a good hit for everyone except those on our far northern fringes. Ratios probably get this to warning-level snow for nearly everyone.Let’s hope that that 90% rule works out. We have a chance for a rare double digit snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Still over 110 hours away. Models will meander north and south till we get within 48hours. But hell .35 or .40 of liquid could be 6 or 7 inches with 20-1 or 15-1 ratios with temps in low 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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