January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[WxUSAF]

Great thread from Tomer about GEFS-EPS differences. At the end he points out that the GFS Graphcast (AI) is closer to the euro suite 

 

[CAPE]

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

Beautiful. Still a Nino look there. Although not sure given the way some recent enso events have gone that Nino/nina means the same thing anymore. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Beautiful. Still a Nino look there. Although not sure given the way some recent enso events have gone that Nino/nina means the same thing anymore. 

Yeah not sure the conventional ENSO criteria means that much anymore. We still know a favorable look for winter weather for our region regardless..at least we hope that's the case.

[clskinsfan]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

Nice looking map right there. Would like to see the PV displaced a little further south. But would take my chances with that. 

[brooklynwx99]

38 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Jan 5-6 and again around the 8th or so look to be the 2 windows to monitor for a potential winter storm going forward. Sporadic signal but its there, esp on the GEFS. 

I still think the 8th is the larger storm signal with the confluence more established, but the 5th can definitely work if you indeed eject a decent vort into confluence 

[frd]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

 

Need to score by Jan 10  because the latest weeklies progress to your typical Western trough and SER by mid Jan.  The window of oppurtunity is getting smaller. 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871302683820265887

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I still think the 8th is the larger storm signal with the confluence more established, but the 5th can definitely work if you indeed eject a decent vort into confluence 

The 5th might be a bit soon. Agreed the 8th and beyond probably offer increasing chances for a winter storm.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Need to score by Jan 10  because the latest weeklies progress to your typical Western trough and SER by mid Jan.  The window of oppurtunity is getting smaller. 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871302683820265887

If by mid Jan you mean the last week of the month, yes.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Need to score by Jan 10  because the latest weeklies progress to your typical Western trough and SER by mid Jan.  The window of oppurtunity is getting smaller. 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1871302683820265887

I made a post about this a day or 2 ago. As long as the EPO ridge persists that pattern isn't hostile. We can have a SER and still get a wave to track underneath. Exactly what happened in Jan 22 when we were apparently in a complete shit the blinds pattern a week or 2 prior.

[CAPE]

Also the extended products that far out aren't very reliable- as we all well know from last winter's perpetually advertised epic pattern that never materialized.

[Eskimo Joe]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the GEFS for the 8th is pretty much what we want to see for a MA winter storm. A -EPO with a southward displaced TPV, -NAO with lower heights off the Canadian Maritimes. Cold enough at the surface. The surface pressure depiction isnt ideal but this is still pretty far out. As depicted there is energy digging into the SW in conjunction with plenty of NS vorticity associated with the flow between the EPO ridge and the TPV. The timing and interaction between these shortwaves will determine ultimate outcomes, and tracking it will be nerve racking lol.

The surface will improve if we maintain that look upstairs. 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe, and on a long enough timescale definitely. But for over 100 years it’s been going one direction. 

You have more understanding in your pinky finger about weather and climatology than I have in my whole body-so this is said with a ton of respect. For sure the past 30 years it has gotten warmer, but I'm approaching my upper 50's and can remember in the mid 70's there being a concern of a "little ice age" at that time bc it had been so cold. That was wrong obviously but it could turn around and our region see cooling 10-20 years from now. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

The surface will improve if we maintain that look upstairs. 

The combo of Nina and the TPV position/NS energy rotating southward around that complicates things. We end up with more LP to our north/northwest than we want. Wave timing becomes more critical to get the outcome we want.

[DarkSharkWX]

https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1871381842693066961

[frd]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

If by mid Jan you mean the last week of the month, yes.

Time is in the eye of the beholder, or is that beauty. 

[DarkSharkWX]

waiting for GEFS obv but gfs made a big step toward euro, look at the aleutians and NATL

[Heisy]

Full on blizzard coming in on the 00z gfs for 1/4-5


.
Okay, maybe not a blizzard, but MECS category. Fun to look at, steps toward euro

[NorthArlington101]

GFS getting SECS-y

 

[midatlanticweather]

The GFS knows how to make us weenies happy, but it does not know how to hold the predictions.. Lol. That looks too good to be true 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS getting SECS-y

 

Psu fringed.  It's on lol

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

You have more understanding in your pinky finger about weather and climatology than I have in my whole body-so this is said with a ton of respect. For sure the past 30 years it has gotten warmer, but I'm approaching my upper 50's and can remember in the mid 70's there being a concern of a "little ice age" at that time bc it had been so cold. That was wrong obviously but it could turn around and our region see cooling 10-20 years from now. 

There are short term decade cyclical patterns yes. But if you adjust for those it’s been getting warmer since the 1800s. 
 

For example, if we get a cycle where a -nao and +PDO coincide in the near future we will be colder than we have during this recent +nao -PDO one. But if that next -nao +pdo is warmer than the last similar “cold” cycle, we didn’t actually get colder we got warmer. You have to see the larger trends and not be confused by short term fluctuations. 

[Ji]

Lots of gfs mischief tonight. Shades of 93/94 2013-14

[bncho]

38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS getting SECS-y

 

That’s the first good run of the GFS OP in a damn year.

[bncho]

Boy, wouldn’t an ice storm be fun right after?

[MillvilleWx]

That period of the 4th through the 12th will need to be monitored super closely. There could be as many as 3 windows of opportunity in that 8-9 day stretch. GFS showed multiple ways to score some winter around these parts and there's more evolutions that would be workable with the progression of the Pacific along with transitory blocking to our northeast. It's a ways away and could very well shift, but the trends are friendly at the moment. 

[jayyy]

That period of the 4th through the 12th will need to be monitored super closely. There could be as many as 3 windows of opportunity in that 8-9 day stretch. GFS showed multiple ways to score some winter around these parts and there's more evolutions that would be workable with the progression of the Pacific along with transitory blocking to our northeast. It's a ways away and could very well shift, but the trends are friendly at the moment. 

Keep talking dirty hahaha

Trends look good, no doubt. If we still see this look around the 28-29th, it’s game on.

[DarkSharkWX]

eps doubles down

[Bob Chill]

8 hours ago, CAPE said:

Also the extended products that far out aren't very reliable- as we all well know from last winter's perpetually advertised epic pattern that never materialized.

Imo only (and @psuhoffmanmentioned something similar), expected results based on enso climo aren't working anymore. It started after 2016 and hasn't really stopped lol. Since extended products rely heavily on long term enso climo, they have deemed themselves unreliable in all directions. Sometimes they nail it but there's been a lot of dandruff piling up from all the collective head scratching lol. 

When I did my wagging in October, I had been thinking about this a lot. For a couple years really. That's the primary reason I went against the grain. Not because I'm smarter than weather lol. It just made a lot of sense in the thought computer after being quite wrong for "weird" reasons last 3-5 years. 

 

[WxUSAF]

5 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

eps doubles down

Yeah overnight EPS is very nice