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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....


Weather Will
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12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Can we get a thread for the Monday event. It's starting to get confusing what system were talking about. The gfs just had a good run for Monday. Looks like another step to the euro. 

I vote we hold off until 12z tomorrow. Give it one more day.

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1 minute ago, packfan98 said:

Happy new year! 6z euro. Very similar 0z.  Surface low was a tad weaker and further south, but totals ticked up for many. 
 

 

IMG_0249.png

Euro has been solidly consistent with that stripe through the region, it seems like the one detail left is exactly where it goes through. Nice set of overnight runs Happy New Year all

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33 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Nice set of 0z and 6z runs. The south trend needed to stop and it did. This is now within 5 days. Confidence is ticking higher. 

Nice consistency across the guidance with ~120 hours to go. Let’s keep it going. I think by tomorrows 12z runs or definitely 0z Friday, we can feel really good if we have similar looks.

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28 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looking ahead, some ridging is trying to push into Alaska again, which would keep the EPO from going too positive. 

IMG_7086.thumb.jpeg.892548621ef9b9bcc3e788afbd70cc74.jpeg

I feel quite confident that this general LW pattern will insert its influence for 4-6 weeks. Certainly not foot to the floor the entire time but just never getting too far out of whack and a propensity to look like the above prog on the balance.  

A good analogy with models would by JFM 2014 and 2015. Lots of breakdowns that never happened. The tracks have been set imo. Maybe we get a big relax and reload but my money is in this general theme until poof in real time 

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National Blend of all models looks really good, with dc in the middle of the stripe around 5 inches.  Then you have the EPS striping us and the Euro with the stripe just south of us.  That’s about as good a consensus as we can ask for showing a solid moderate event with no precip type issues.  Another day or two to iron out the details and hopefully juice it up a little but this is looking great.  

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

6z Eps 24 hr snowfall 

sn10_024h-mean-imp.us_ma (3).png

My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix.

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8 minutes ago, T. August said:

My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix.

Believe me, I  remain totally paranoid on this one as a miss for all of us remains a viable option at 4-5 days out.

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12 minutes ago, T. August said:

My one nitpick (you are probably happy with it) is the 6z eps and gefs now have a greater number of misses to the north for the dc/balt area. The extreme southern solutions are mainly off the table it seems, but it looks like a miss north has been added to the mix.

Anything but a miss to the south lol. The goal post seem to like the region as of now. 

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