ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: At 144hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg As long as it stays south of the PA line, you could care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: At 145hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg Yea, completely different jet streak, too. We're still in the trackable phase...variables still tbd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: At 144hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg 800mb gets to 0c on the soundings... surface is fine for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian I don’t like the appendage on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z Canadian There a good bit more after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Canadian a bigger hit methinks Tis good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Early trends are a little slower and less confluence, giving us better spacing but also allowing this to maybe sneak to the north more. Pros and cons. However, since the storm keeps getting pushed back… even more runs to the final outcome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I’ll deb. Just seeing where the snow has fallen leading up to this storm… this isn’t traditionally a winner. We were lucky to get the WAA this run + some modest coastal development. Surprised people are so enthused. In the game, yes. But I’d’ve preferred holding south. YMMV Exactly. A look like this robs 60% of the forum of snow. MAYBE some ice/sleet to rain, not snow. And one more 'flick' like this and it goes to 80-85% of the group. You want south to be snow and for it to ride up, not west to east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Total Kuchie Gem 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Early trends are a little slower and less confluence, giving us better spacing but also allowing this to maybe sneak to the north more. Pros and cons. However, since the storm keeps getting pushed back… even more runs to the final outcome! Actually the models sped up this storm since early yesterday, and then now slowing it down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. The mix line is because of a slight warm intrusion at around 800mb. EZF is upper 20s surface at the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 So, here’s where we are at. 3 models tonight - icon, gfs, cmc - stopped the suppression trend and brought the storms back north. Bit weaker confluence, better wave spacing by slowing the storm down 6ish hours. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman Yep.. the heaviest snow is usually not far from the mix line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Weather Will said: Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms. I'll be up waiting for the euro... curious to see what ukmet says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms. Not correct euro isn’t always right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Weather Will said: Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms. In light ofthe Eps, I would expect some sort of rebound north providing it too slows progress. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Not correct euro isn’t always right lol True but this time is seems other models are trending toward the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, winter_warlock said: True but this time is seems other models are trending toward the euro The other models just trended away from the euro cause now they are north of the last 2 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, TSSN+ said: The other models just trended away from the euro cause now they are north of the last 2 runs. Well there was a time when they were cutting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Gfs reminds us this may not be all. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010100&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Watch this timing.. it's not going to phase here, but it could on future runs with some slight adjustments.. lots of potential showing on todays models around Day 10. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ukie great 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie great Tell us more… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 1 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 All coming together peeps!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 For you Bliz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie great When I see your posts I have to remember you live in PA now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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