January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Meanwhile, Canadian looking good

O Canada, our home and native land. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I’ll take it. The south shift stopped and its back north per gfs. Probably some more wiggling to do, but starting to settle on the general track. Which is the kind of track we want.

I’ll deb. Just seeing where the snow has fallen leading up to this storm… this isn’t traditionally a winner. We were lucky to get the WAA this run + some modest coastal development. Surprised people are so enthused. In the game, yes. But I’d’ve preferred holding south. YMMV

[mitchnick]

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025010100&fh=138&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps

[ravensrule]

Just now, CAPE said:

I like that eastward extension over my yard. 6" is nothing to sneeze at. I'm told.

Oh i can tell you first and second hand, it’s not. 

[mitchnick]

At 144hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z Canadian  updated

 

[mitchnick]

Canadian a bigger hit methinks

[ravensrule]

Just now, mitchnick said:

At 144hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg 

As long as it stays south of the PA line, you could care less. 

[87storms]

Just now, mitchnick said:

At 145hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg 

Yea, completely different jet streak, too.  We're still in the trackable phase...variables still tbd.

[yoda]

Just now, mitchnick said:

At 144hrs Gem has mix to Fredericksburg 

800mb gets to 0c on the soundings... surface is fine for all

[ravensrule]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Canadian 

I don’t like the appendage on this one. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z Canadian 

There a good bit more after that.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Canadian a bigger hit methinks

Tis good.

[NorthArlington101]

Early trends are a little slower and less confluence, giving us better spacing but also allowing this to maybe sneak to the north more. Pros and cons. 

However, since the storm keeps getting pushed back… even more runs to the final outcome!

[Terpeast]

CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’ll deb. Just seeing where the snow has fallen leading up to this storm… this isn’t traditionally a winner. We were lucky to get the WAA this run + some modest coastal development. Surprised people are so enthused. In the game, yes. But I’d’ve preferred holding south. YMMV

Exactly. A look like this robs 60% of the forum of snow. MAYBE some ice/sleet to rain, not snow. And one more 'flick' like this and it goes to 80-85% of the group. You want south to be snow and for it to ride up, not west to east.  

[mitchnick]

Total Kuchie Gem

[Terpeast]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Early trends are a little slower and less confluence, giving us better spacing but also allowing this to maybe sneak to the north more. Pros and cons. 

However, since the storm keeps getting pushed back… even more runs to the final outcome!

Actually the models sped up this storm since early yesterday, and then now slowing it down a bit. 

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. 

The mix line is because of a slight warm intrusion at around 800mb.  EZF is upper 20s surface at the time

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

CMC had us flirting with the mix line. This is as far north as we want it to go. 

It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman

[Terpeast]

So, here’s where we are at. 3 models tonight - icon, gfs, cmc - stopped the suppression trend and brought the storms back north. Bit weaker confluence, better wave spacing by slowing the storm down 6ish hours.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s solid. Got to smell the rain to get the goods. Or be on Mt @psuhoffman

 Yep..  the heaviest  snow is usually not far from  the mix line

[Weather Will]

Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms.

I'll be up waiting for the euro...   curious to see what ukmet says

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms.

Not correct euro isn’t always right lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, Weather Will said:

Of course none of these models matter unless the King confirms.

In light ofthe Eps, I  would expect some sort of rebound north providing it too slows progress.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not correct euro isn’t always right lol

True but this time is seems other models are trending toward the euro

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

True but this time is seems other models are trending toward the euro

The other models just trended away from the euro cause now they are north of the last 2 runs. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

The other models just trended away from the euro cause now they are north of the last 2 runs. 

Well there was a time when they were cutting lol

[mitchnick]

Gfs reminds us this may not be all.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025010100&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1