WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue Awww shucks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 26 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. Yeah, good thing this threat already happened. See ya next winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue I checked the median and >3” & >6” percentage maps ready to deb but it’s a slightly better run across the board. Not an obvious south or dry shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. This looks good. Feeling better after seeing the euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. Thats total snowfall, curious how much of that is increase in Friday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 With blocking in place( Greenland and 50-50) the last five days before event usually sees a South trend unless Block is fading.This only goes out 144. I’m assuming there is more after this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, TSSN+ said: Thats total snowfall, curious how much of that is increase in Friday event? ~.2” of it. Checked that out as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, Ji said: This only goes out 144. I’m assuming there is more after this Mitch said there was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Awww shucks... 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I checked the median and >3” & >6” percentage maps ready to deb but it’s a slightly better run across the board. Not an obvious south or dry shift. To get technical as I’m a couple drinks in, this is one more example that the EPS is appropriately dispersive whereas GEFS plays follow the leader at this range. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: ~.2” of it. Checked that out as well. Ok so basically nothing haha. Then ya that’s a good increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 3 minutes ago, Ji said: This only goes out 144. I’m assuming there is more after this 6z/18z EPS goes to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence. Yeah I kinda have a feeling those of us on the northeastern edge aren’t gonna know until the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence. Chicken vs egg question.....is that gyre you noted strengthening the NAO block and location OR is the NAO dictating what that 50/50 does? Or is it a beautiful tango where they are both intertwined and dependent of one another? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Everything from suppressed to oblivion to ukmet like more north solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Everything from suppressed to oblivion to ukmet like more north solution So we still have no idea what’s even near to likely happening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ok so basically nothing haha. Then ya that’s a good increase. Not true. Many places in the DC/MD & Southern PA jump into 1 shade higher. Plus, as I showed, there's more to come. Here's 24 hr totals that only include Monday event. 18z on top. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, mitchnick said: Not true. Many places in the DC/MD & Southern PA jump into 1 shade higher. Plus, as I showed, there's more to come. Here's 24 hr totals that only include Monday event. 18z on top. I was talking about the qpf from Friday is basically nothing so it wasn’t the reason for the increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Tossing darts still. Lows all over the place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chicken vs egg question.....is that gyre you noted strengthening the NAO block and location OR is the NAO dictating what that 50/50 does? Or is it a beautiful tango where they are both intertwined and dependent of one another? You'll have to ask them. I don't dance so well! Honestly, I don't know and neither do the models at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Ukie snowfall mean. Both 18z (top) and 12z (bottom) include Friday, which isn't much, but I put a link to the 18z Friday totals. My guess is snow is higher on 18z due to losing some northern outliers that had some rain, but that's a wag. P.s. Ukie goes out to 198hrs, so that could explain higher totals than Eps, or it's timing issues. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2024123118&fh=90&r=us_state_de_md&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Chicken vs egg question.....is that gyre you noted strengthening the NAO block and location OR is the NAO dictating what that 50/50 does? Or is it a beautiful tango where they are both intertwined and dependent of one another? An atmospheric block involves both a ridge and a trough. The NAO block is typically a Rex configuration- the ridge up top and the trough/vortex to the south. Self sustaining once established. eta- (technical) Energy in the atmosphere is carried in troughs(vorticity) so that drives the flow, and ridges form downstream( to conserve mass and absolute vorticity). Once the block is established, it takes energy(shortwaves) feeding into the trough to sustain it. One way our lovely NAO block will break down is if the upstream pattern shifts- the EPO ridge breaks down/TPV recedes, decreasing vorticity impulses in the flow moving into the trough component of the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just to visualize what is holding our fate, it's that spaghetti ball spinning Northeast of Maine. It's the last 4 models runs. It's an absolute crapshoot with every model run. It'll be Sunday 0z before there's any true confidence.Hey Mitch, miss you over in the Philly forums. I like where we’re at this stage of the game. Long way to go, need the 50/50 to relax . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey Mitch, miss you over in the Philly forums. I like where we’re at this stage of the game. Long way to go, need the 50/50 to relax . @Heisy Are you still on Tom's site or somewhere else? I've checked the Philly forum here, but you never post there. Does Tom's site still require an app? Let me know! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, rjvanals said: GFS shows a 1pm temp of 8 at DCA on the 11th I’ll take the over In the glory of days of yore we got powdery mid 20’s snow but then the backlash cold would pour in and say snow ended 11am at 25 and then windy, blowing snow temps falling rest of day to 15 by dark. Be nice to see one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Fwiw, new Cansips has January frigid, of course, and February and March slightly AN temps. January precip is BN, February is Normal, and March N/slightly AN. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025010100&fh=0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I’ll try to do pbp if I’m not absolutely sauced or sick from free crab legs and food at a friends NY party. There will be signs. If my pbp is actually good and worthwhile, then I’m definitely fucked up. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: In the glory of days of yore we got powdery mid 20’s snow but then the backlash cold would pour in and say snow ended 11am at 25 and then windy, blowing snow temps falling rest of day to 15 by dark. Be nice to see one of those Remember Alberta Clippers? Good times. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: In the glory of days of yore we got powdery mid 20’s snow but then the backlash cold would pour in and say snow ended 11am at 25 and then windy, blowing snow temps falling rest of day to 15 by dark. Be nice to see one of those Was looking back through my notes and came up with 3/3/2014 as a nice 4-6”er with temps into the teens. Great winter and sorely missed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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