CAPE Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO went south. I’d take it with the assumption this trends north as things tend to do, unless you think the EURO/GFS have finally found the exact compromise spot at Day 5. If this is it Chill is gonna have a visitor. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO went south. I’d take it with the assumption this trends north as things tend to do, unless you think the EURO/GFS have finally found the exact compromise spot at Day 5. The trend is what it is. I wonder what timeframe the models the actually start to figure out just how strong the confluence is. It is New Years Eve. And I have already been drinking since 1:30 so my memory is a little wrecked right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I'm having a hard time seeing how we have the north trend if this is the time the block is establishing itself. But someone can chime in on that if I'm wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I lost 8 inches. Ji would be ruined from that. Edit: Like I said earlier. A LOT of us are going to screwed during the WAA. It is the the way the cookie crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The first trend I am not liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm having a hard time seeing how we have the north trend if this is the time the block is establishing itself. But someone can chime in on that if I'm wrong. Have you ever watched models 5+ days out? This thing could still end up over New York or South Carolina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, TSSN+ said: Have you ever watched models 5+ days out? This thing could still end up over New York or South Carolina I don't know if you can apply that bias everytime, though. To me if strong block is coming in something can't move north but so much, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm having a hard time seeing how we have the north trend if this is the time the block is establishing itself. But someone can chime in on that if I'm wrong. It's not that it is just establishing itself, it is the extreme nature of it as currently advertised. It looks like a classic omega block, where our typical NA blocks are more of the rex type. And it is displaced southward, with a busy NS feeding continuous energy into the vortex component- that may very well be overdone, but if not, some of these recent runs represent plausible outcomes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Well, I'm basically 'jackpotted' with this (between the 16.0 and 17.8) so NOT a final solution, lol. It'll drift back and forth, and I'm fine with that, long as the storm in general hangs in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 18z EURO went south. I’d take it with the assumption this trends north as things tend to do, unless you think the EURO/GFS have finally found the exact compromise spot at Day 5. With blocking in place( Greenland and 50-50) the last five days before event usually sees a South trend unless Block is fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. And still are lol-literally the last 2 days the threats get more real not less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Heading here. 1 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's not that it is just establishing itself, it is the extreme nature of it as currently advertised. It looks like a classic omega block, where our typical NA blocks are more of the rex type. And it is displaced southward, with a busy NS feeding continuous energy into the vortex component- that may very well be overdone, but if not, some of these recent runs represent plausible outcomes. Possible we may have to wait to score until mid month, versus on the 6 th. Have the block relax and shift somewhat. Wonder whether we could get a HA event when the -NAO relaxes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 5 minutes ago, frd said: Possible we may have to wait to score until mid month, versus on the 6 th. Have the block relax and shift somewhat. Wonder whether we could get a HA event when the -NAO relaxes. Love those Archambault events! Been a while. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 The problem is at hr 87 we get a coastal low developing ~100 miles SW of where it was progged at hr 105 on the great Euro last night. This leads the low to be spinning on the southwest side of Newfoundland at hr 126 when the storm is approaching us vs the Northeast side like we saw last night at hr 144 which creates enough confluence to push the best snow ~100 miles south of what was shown last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: If this is it Chill is gonna have a visitor. Let's do this S. 4 wheelin in a foot of powder to a hiking trail then giant bonfire and fireworks at night. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: Falls apart by 147 - 4-8" on NC/VA border. Dusting makes it up to us. Congrats @Bob Chill I’d sign off on the end of winter if I could actually have that come to fruition. Want it to be region wide though. We all need this so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 15 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. Bro. We have been begging for cold for a decade at this point... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 14 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Heading here. I literally lost it. Hahahaaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I swear models suck so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 I know it doesn't end at 144hrs on 18z map because of this 6hr qpf panel at 144hrs. More out west to slide east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. This was totally unexpected I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Just now, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue Awww shucks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 26 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: People laughed when I said every super cold pattern in the last 10 years hasn't produced anything. Yeah, good thing this threat already happened. See ya next winter. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @mitchnick with the NYE weenie rescue I checked the median and >3” & >6” percentage maps ready to deb but it’s a slightly better run across the board. Not an obvious south or dry shift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. This looks good. Feeling better after seeing the euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Eps better than 12z believe it or not. It's not over at 144hrs either. 18z on top with 12z below. Thats total snowfall, curious how much of that is increase in Friday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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