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January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....


Weather Will
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10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn yall...it's so close.  throws back some coastal enhancement our way.   if you saw that H5 map alone....Oh well...just interesting stuff.   Let's bring the 6th in first.

ETA..neg tilt keeps backing precip into us

We ain’t done after Monday. Not sure what’s going to happen, but we’re not done.

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18z GFS takes a step towards the ECMWF and resembles the primary cluster of ensemble guidance when reviewing the 12z cluster analysis. 
 

The Grand Ensemble was a mean of 2-3” area wide with the 1-2” mark all the way down to Roanoke and the 2-3” mark beginning Fredericksburg and north. The primary cluster representing a solid 39% of ensemble guidance had a mean of 2.5-4” with a more widespread 3” margin across NoVA up through Southern PA. I think we are seeing the GFS begin the shift of a weaker North Atlantic Gyre and more in-line with the primary ensemble consensus. If that trends weaker, this will end up further north. Need the primary ULL over the Mid-South to stay robust so it can gear up prior to reaching the Tennessee Valley before it eventually gets sheared and the moisture axis funnels up into our hood. 
 

Atecedent airmass is prime, so the main ptype should be snow for most of us. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Block is so powerful the weather systems are reversing.  Someone posted a couple days ago about vorts near the Baja moving SW, versus East. 

Crazy models, crazy forecasts.  All the ingredients are still there to sort out over the next few days.  

Yes, that was me.  I was watching water vapor and the storms off the west coast of Central America and Mexico were heading west bound well south of Hawaii. There is a low that is pretty much stationary SE of Hawaii, and you can clearly see the STJ activating from that storm towards Mexico, the desert southwest though Texas and over to Atlanta Georgia. 

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7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Triple WX porn   XXX

Are we the new Siberia ?   :mapsnow:

 

Bring it please.  

This time of year Siberia is just calm, dry, and brutally cold. No wind chill to speak of.

We could experience a mini Siberia feel if we build a bit of a snowpack with Arctic cold in place, and get a clear, calm night..

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro.

That's right, I  just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol

I mean if I am honest I might actually trust the 84 hour NAM more than the ICON.....just saying

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