Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I think the ICON is in error because no other model closes off a tiny low off baja and lets it just sit and spin. I'd regard it as a one-off, but monitor closely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Well, here's to hope. We're off. Icon shit the bed, next let's see if the GFS can hold or...step forward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think the ICON is in error because no other model closes off a tiny low off baja and lets it just sit and spin. I'd regard it as a one-off, but monitor closely. Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol 2 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Is it we all had a storm till we didn't have a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 lol buries our shortwave in the SW and forgets about it.I think it’s safe to say that run is a tosser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, Scraff said: Are you running to the store for TP because you sense you’re going to have to shit a lot in the next few days? Or that the shits about to hit the fan? Just wanted to make sure I had that right. Either way…I’m laughing my ass off. Shit the blinds 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 11 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think the ICON is in error because no other model closes off a tiny low off baja and lets it just sit and spin. I'd regard it as a one-off, but monitor closely. Casual 1000+mi shift inside D5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just for S and Gs while we wait for 18z gfs. Look at the euro extended. If only this was ever right. 8 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? LolMic drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 21 minutes ago, frd said: Block is so powerful the weather systems are reversing. Someone posted a couple days ago about vorts near the Baja moving SW, versus East. Crazy models, crazy forecasts. All the ingredients are still there to sort out over the next few days. That was me that posted that. I don't recall seeing a closed +PNA with the stj moving in reverse to the South of it. Looks like the itcz in late August displaced way North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol I miss the dgex and cras. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Even the 84 hr 18z NAM swings the vort intact into the coast like the 12z Euro. That's right, I just used the 84hr NAM as confirmation. What are you going to do about it? Lol 220, 221, whatever it takes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Just for S and Gs while we wait for 18z gfs. Look at the euro extended. If only this was ever right. Lmao this is one to save Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 If you look up at the 50/50, it's really a lobe of vorticity that is swinging down that's the culprit. Reminds me of the VA SMD storm of 1/17 I believe that was headed for us but for a small lobe headed due south and shunted the storm from going past La Plata. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Can safely say the GFS won't be holding that S/w back like the ICON 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 220, 221, whatever it takes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Lmao this is one to save Right and check for verification on the 15 of Feb. probably closer to 3” than 30” lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Not seeing anything mindblowingly different that would lead to what we want so far. S.w out west is a bit farther north. That;s it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Not seeing anything mindblowingly different that would lead to what we want so far. S.w out west is a bit farther north. That;s it Low is a little stronger thru 117 and the blocking seems to be a bit NE of last run the high is also 4mb weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 So, actually did see a slight difference with the western lobe of the confluence...moved east a little bit. Let's see if it makes a difference down the line. Saw some more panels...confluence seem to be further NE a bit. S/w is further north a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, TSSN+ said: Low is a little stronger thru 117 and the blocking seems to be a bit NE of last run the high is also 4mb weaker. Yeah I clocked it, but just wanted to wait to confirm. Like I say, I try to be conservative and wait before getting people excited or expecting some huge change. Still wait and see rn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still continues to move the confluence further N and E. S/w is further north as well. This seems to be positive so far 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It's going to be a better run 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: It's going to be a better run I mean hard to get much worse than 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It's trying and the confluence is definitely noticeably N and East...still going to run into a brick wall...but maybe things get pushed norther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: I mean hard to get much worse than 12z I should have said relative to 12z. Precip is farther norther. still not what we want tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: It's trying and the confluence is definitely noticeably N and East...still going to run into a brick wall...but maybe things get pushed norther I'm at 138 - maybe a 25-50m jog into VA? Increase in the NE extent of the precip shield into the OV more noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: I should have said relative to 12z. Precip is farther norther. still not what we want tho Just keep small steps north for the next 4 days and we will be golden by game time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Past 4 runs, GFS has been zig zagging between N and S. Maybe it's just trying to come in better focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The trend at H5 was definitely positive. We still just can't get the heavy's up here. Wetter run tho. Went from whiff...to...light thang 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts