January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[notvirga!]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the December 19, 2009 event was suppressed significantly until D4 when the modeled strong 50/50 low was a bit further north and weaker. 

It was but was that a slider or more of a hybrid system?

[WVclimo]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I'm on the M/D and I'm good with this run.

So many damn times confluence has weekened as we close in on game time that we get missed to the north. Don't want it to drop further south but having a little wiggle room isn't bad.

Still 6 days out.

^ This 100%.  

4” in Hagerstown and 8” in Martinsburg is a great storm at the front end of a cold wave.  I would sign for this in a heartbeat.

The previous runs of the ECMWF showed so much more QPF than all the other models.  I expected a correction.

[bncho]

DC being just north should be good news for everybody. Things trend north if it's a big snowstorm. Even if the Euro verifies verbatim we still don't have to worry about mixing.

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Well 90% of the time confleuce is over done and it creeps back north. I am not crying over that run. 

oh yeah, I'm not in panic or worry mode...not even close.  I think we score, but prob not a foot, lol

[Mikeymac5306]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

People are cliff jumping in here over the euro? Looks great still - again, the goal posts are set. VA NC border to Central PA. I like where we sit right now being 5-6 days out

 

[mitchnick]

Anyone with the Eps snowfall yet? Tia

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Max was over DC at 0z and over Fredericksburg now? That’s essentially an identical solution for D6. Caveat that I haven’t looked at anything besides @NorthArlington101’s snowmap.

This x100!  It’s 150 hours. A shift like that is noise. There is no way to know exactly where the sharp northern edge will be due to confluence at this range.  The euro still has a healthy storm. That’s what matters. 

[H2O]

Just now, stormtracker said:

oh yeah, I'm not in panic or worry mode...not even close.  I think we score, but prob not a foot, lol

I'm panicked.  It will move north and by Sunday night i will be looking at 1.1" of euro snow map grey.  This far out I need to see the max snow down over Cuba to feel safe about the north trend.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

oh yeah, I'm not in panic or worry mode...not even close.  I think we score, but prob not a foot, lol

Yeah but for me and you in urban heat island hell being on the north end is really good.  Euro has us at 24 degrees during the best precip Monday morning. 

[WEATHER53]

Any post storm(s) bitter  cold graphics?

Thanks. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

There is obviously more to it than timing (maybe @CAPE's jet stream lift?) but the CMC and EURO really look the same in a lot of ways... just depends on the thumpiness of the thump and EURO being ~12 hours quicker. EURO still collapses/shreds when it gets closer to the coast.

It de-amplifies a bit more than the 0z run as it comes east. A secondary low pops offshore. The confluence/convergence upstairs on the sw side of that NA vortex is going to have some impact. We want just enough.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Any post storm(s) bitter  cold graphics?

Thanks. 

It's gunna get ugly.

[NorthArlington101]

For those looking beyond this period (cough, me) the EURO and the GFS both have an interesting setup for Jan 14/15. Waaaay at the end of the run, but if things fizzle out into suppression hell after the 6th, that might be the next opportunity. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This x100!  It’s 150 hours. A shift like that is noise. There is no way to know exactly where the sharp northern edge will be due to confluence at this range.  The euro still has a healthy storm. That’s what matters. 

How many times have we seen things juice up a tad within D3? I like what the CMC/Euro/ICON is advertising upstairs.

[NorthArlington101]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Anyone with the Eps snowfall yet? Tia

No noticeable difference from 00z - noise at best. EURO parent is still the snowiest of it's ens, though. (ok other than e31)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro op has dc below freezing for a long, long, time.  When’s the last time we even strung 3-4 below freezing days together?

[Eskimo Joe]

Multiple chance for snow in the D7 window. Love it. Haven't seen this for years.  

[pazzo83]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro op has dc below freezing for a long, long, time.  When’s the last time we even strung 3-4 below freezing days together?

Jan 15-17 2024 had every day at or below freezing.

[Terpeast]

No real trend on the euro, this is noise at 6-7 days out

[NorthArlington101]

The mean ended up the same between 00z and 12z but I do want to help maybe level-set some folks (including myself) and just really hammer home that the OP EURO is an outlier on its members. Only a 10-20% chance - and it's closer to 10%, of >6in 10:1.

[blizzardmeiser]

24 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah but for me and you in urban heat island hell being on the north end is really good.  Euro has us at 24 degrees during the best precip Monday morning. 

Plenty of time to finalize details.  Everyone in the game right now. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS.  31 is acceptable.   

 

[konksw]

Anything beats teetering on the R/S line at this point. 

[osfan24]

Euro OP seems like a major outlier with its ensembles.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Euro OP seems like a major outlier with its ensembles.

It’s just another member, they are literally all over the place. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS.  31 is acceptable.   

 

Most show at least some accumulation.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Most show at least some accumulation.

It’s a good run.  Most of the members that show a snowstorm include our area, as evidenced by the mean being the highest in our region.  That’s what we went to see. 

[MillvilleWx]

Been busy at work so just now getting a chance to assess things. So far there is still significant spread with the handling of the 5H pattern across the North Atlantic with the extension hanging back into the Northeastern U.S. @CAPE pointed out earlier some of the appreciable differences upstairs with a touch more phasing of N/S energy extending back to Canada leading to a stronger axis of confluence and shearing of the primary 5H shortwave progression out of the Mississippi Valley. One positive take from the GFS was a better precip shield developing across the Mid-South, something that had been missing in previous runs. This makes sense considering the stronger closed 5H vorticity and subsequent 500mb LER jet dynamics accompanying the trough. There's likely to be shearing as a result of the cyclonic gyre over the North Atlantic, but we'll have to see if this is a case of Medium Range bias in over amplifying the 5H Relative Vorticity evolution as can be the case within these D4+ leads. I do feel the analysis of the eventual trough in the plains and Tennessee Valley will be solved a little faster given the time frame the energy reaches the CONUS and becomes a factor in cyclogenesis is <72 hrs in progression, so the fact that has trended favorably is a step in the right direction. 

Deterministic output has been shotgun spray when it comes to the final QPF within that D6-8 time frame as each global displays a different prog meaning there's very much variability in this pattern. These types of setups tend to lean further north due to the bias of over amplification of the downstream 5H evolution noted above, but that doesn't mean that will be the case this time. Ensembles have been pretty useful with regards to the anticipated QPF with the GFS boosting precip within the area over the past 4 runs (See @NorthArlington101 post above) and the other ensembles remains relatively steady with varying QPF magnitudes more noise within the mean. NBM maintains a general 2-4" across much of the sub-forum with the max situated over Central MD back west, a favored climo pattern for storms that run west to east in trajectory. 

I'm curious to look at the cluster analysis and see what differences within the ensemble members give us the best and worse case scenarios along with which cluster has the highest percentile of probable outcomes. Time will tell and until I see something more concrete in either a great or terrible scenario, I have no strong feelings on what has been shown on todays 12z suite. Just my $0.02

[clskinsfan]

30 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Any post storm(s) bitter  cold graphics?

Thanks. 

I honestly cant remember the last time the Euro had me below freezing for the extended amount of time it did this run. It reminds me of the 1989 cold outbreak. Here are the coldest temps for our area on the run. 

 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Euro OP seems like a major outlier with its ensembles.

you know the Euro actually starts the storm in 108 hours. It should be a solid member that far out and more realiable than the ensembles