January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[rjvanals]

UKIE is good looking on Pivotal 

[mitchnick]

Ukie big hit 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie big hit 

More north of us 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Ukie is going into the Lakes lol

You can see the WAA axis still resulting in a hit, but definitely on the south end of it this go. FRZA line is close to DC.

[TSSN+]

Gfs in a little world of its own suppressing the storm to Puerto Rico

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Pretty major differences there and we are now at only the 150 hour mark

“Only 150”. lol. 
you’re right but it wasn’t long ago 150 was unicorn fantasy land and further than most operational models even went!  

[yoda]

Snow at bwi at 144... rain at dca 12z ukie

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You can see the WAA axis still resulting in a hit, but definitely on the south end of it this go. FRZA line is close to DC.

DC flips to rain at the end lol. Lots of outcomes still on the table. Need the "just right" level of confluence.

[87storms]

Looks like Newfoundland might be the spot to be next weekend.  All the models have a stemwinder moving up the coast there.

[Ji]

“Only 150”. lol. 
you’re right but it wasn’t long ago 150 was unicorn fantasy land and further than most operational models even went!  

So true. When I first started tracking the mrf went out to 144 tops

[Terpeast]

UKMET is on the other side of GFS, with Euro/ICON/CMC somewhere in the middle

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You can see the WAA axis still resulting in a hit, but definitely on the south end of it this go. FRZA line is close to DC.

It’s a nice hit before the precip issues kick in but the whole thing goes way north.  Very very different than the CMC/GFS and even pretty different than the Euro.  If the euro does this at 12z I’ll be concerned. 

[mitchnick]

It did push further north than I  expected. Plenty of time. We don't want too many models going to our south.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

So true. When I first started tracking the mrf went out to 144 tops

Remember the Aviation model that was before the MRF. Only went out to 120 hrs, I think.

[87storms]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It did push further north than I  expected. Plenty of time. We don't want too many models going to our south.

With that North Atl system, a cutter might be off the table.  Like others have said, that might be the storm to monitor to see how much confluence it throws at us.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Remember the Aviation model that was before the MRF. Only went out to 120 hrs, I think.

Would save us all the trouble if models would only go out to 120/144 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

So true. When I first started tracking the mrf went out to 144 tops

 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Remember the Aviation model that was before the MRF. Only went out to 120 hrs, I think.

Yup, things have become so fast paced maybe we expect more but the advancement the last 20 years is definitely there. When I used to sit in on forecast discussions as guidance came in at the PSU weather station in the late 90s and early 2000s we didn’t even look at anything past 100 hours. It wasn’t even a thought. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For the period around the 10-11th, you can cycle through the 500mb vorticity panels of the last several runs and see what we need quite clearly. When our 50/50 low is sitting over Vermont, there’s no storm.

That's also somewhat the problem for early next week on the GFS in particular. The 12z run has even more NS vorticity phasing in to the 50-50 at the exact wrong time- just ahead of the storm. Its becoming the gyre of doom lol.

 

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Would save us all the trouble if models would only go out to 120/144 

I have been saying this for years... Model runs going out to the general public should only go out 5 days.  We would all get more sleep as well.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That's also somewhat the problem for early next week on the GFS in particular. The 12z run has even more NS vorticity phasing in to the 50-50 at the exact wrong time- just ahead of the storm. Its becoming the gyre of doom lol.

 

I’d rather need less of that than more at this point. The more typical error is to over do an anomaly like they. Needing less of a crazy anomaly is a better place to be. 

[TSSN+]

Gfs diving to worst model of late. 

[stormy]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For the period around the 10-11th, you can cycle through the 500mb vorticity panels of the last several runs and see what we need quite clearly. When our 50/50 low is sitting over Vermont, there’s no storm.

Excellent point!!

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’d rather need less of that than more at this point. The more typical error is to over do an anomaly like they. Needing less of a crazy anomaly is a better place to be. 

At this point we just root for the foreigners

Go Canada!

Go Brits!

Go Germany! 

[WEATHER53]

39 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I have been saying this for years... Model runs going out to the general public should only go out 5 days.  We would all get more sleep as well.

I believe that going out in time and trying to sharpen coverage areas has not increased positive performances .

past 3 days we need binoculars  or the naked eye and not a microscope. The zooming in creates a cover all bases modality instead of a more precise and consistent one 

 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’d rather need less of that than more at this point. The more typical error is to over do an anomaly like they. Needing less of a crazy anomaly is a better place to be. 

As always when we have a favorable pattern with cold available, our hopes and dreams hinge on wave interactions, timing, and spacing.

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I have been saying this for years... Model runs going out to the general public should only go out 5 days.  We would all get more sleep as well.

Totally agree with this.

Weenies going crazy 10 days out is nuts. I fell for this years back but now I know it's a total waste of time. So many "ups" and "down" for 10 days is insane. If people enjoy it, great, but surely I can find better things to do with my time.

And don't call me Shirley.... 

 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Totally agree with this.

Weenies going crazy 10 days out is nuts. I fell for this years back but now I know it's a total waste of time. So many "ups" and "down" for 10 days is insane. If people enjoy it, great, but surely I can find better things to do with my time.

And don't call me Shirley.... 

 

You must have a love life like @stormtracker if you have something better to do than track storms 10 days out. 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Totally agree with this.

Weenies going crazy 10 days out is nuts. I fell for this years back but now I know it's a total waste of time. So many "ups" and "down" for 10 days is insane. If people enjoy it, great, but surely I can find better things to do with my time.

And don't call me Shirley.... 

 

Surely Shirley surely doesn't want to be called Shirley.

[TSSN+]

Euro is off and running. Let’s see if we can get another nice solution or not 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As always when we have a favorable pattern with cold available, our hopes and dreams hinge on wave interactions, timing, and spacing.

Well, in a pattern like this, if we get skunked at least we won't have to have the "still not cold enough" discussion again, lol Said wave interactions are just like spinning a wheel...step right up and see where it lands. You ya feel lucky, punk?