yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2-4 for most of VA into DC... 1-2 for most of MD... 1" for NE MD on 12z CMC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 CMC has more NS influence that kind of disrupts the main SW with a phase attempt. At least that what it looks like to my weenie eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I’d say this is a very positive step with both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Good track, weird with the qpf, but I’ll take that track and wait for it to juice more up like the euro. It's not a juice problem as I see it - it has the juice til it hits our doorstep. It's the 1-3/4 wave running interference. ICON/EURO have better spacing... though honestly my one issue with the 06z EURO that I didn't bring up was a negative trend in that direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It's not a juice problem - it has the juice til it hits our doorstep. It's the 1-3/4 wave running interference. ICON/EURO have better spacing... though honestly my one issue with the 06z EURO that I didn't bring up was a negative trend in that direction. Delete the thread 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ya I don’t buy the precip just vanishing like that. Low track looks good, let’s worry about qpf later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still holding a bit of light snow through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Looking at the 500 charts the Friday system organizes closer to shore on both the CMC/GFS compared to the EURO/ICON which then helps push the confluence further south on Monday screwing it up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Canadian turns coastal--probably a 3-5" for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The argument could be made that this is the perfect spot to be in. You do not want to be in the bullseye at this range...it almost never works out. Late trends north are still a thing as is over-fitting of cold air/suppression (or so it seems). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I wouldn't react negatively to more confluence pushing this storm south. I would always leave the door open for a last minute north trend, so we're sitting right where we want to be sitting imho. There's always a chance that the first system off the coast is going to be overdone, and with an active NS, the 50/50 low might get pushed a bit to the east. It's trending stronger, sure, but I think there will be more progressiveness to it than what the models are depicting 6-7 days out. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 As @Bob Chillsaid earlier - the WAA should at least be good for someone. Another tricky feature to place but someone from Raleigh-NYC should get 3-6" from that alone. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 CMC is a decent light event, 2-4. Id take it and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: CMC is a decent light event, 2-4. Id take it and be happy. Yea that'd be great. Then we just stay cold with a fresh snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I wouldn't react negatively to more confluence pushing this storm south. I would always leave the door open for a last minute north trend, so we're sitting right where we want to be sitting imho. There's always a chance that the first system off the coast is going to be overdone, and with an active NS, the 50/50 low might get pushed a bit to the east. It's trending stronger, sure, but I think there will be more progressiveness to it than what the models are depicting 6-7 days out. We're not going to have a good handle of next week until we see what happens with the Friday system. I'd like to see that form way offshore and then take my chances with next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The gfs is just tragic 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I expect suppression to be indicated repeatedly as this is extreme cold . However we can have 30.55 extreme cold which is suppressive or 30.25-35 which is not. That gets revealed 12-18 hours in advance. Location of the high vital also. On or <100 miles south SSW of tip of Hudson /James bay is ideal. The further east and south it centers itself not as good. Pittsburgh colder than Boston shows we have very good cold air support west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The GFS was suppressed south which is no big deal at this point. The GEM is also suppressed south which brings it right into my backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The gfs is just tragic Seems to be getting left on an island of its own. CMC is probably the closest thing to it and even it gives us a 1 to 3 type deal event. Let's see what the Euro says. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Seems to be getting left on an island of its own. CMC is probably the closest thing to it and even it gives us a 1 to 3 type deal event. Let's see what the Euro says. 5+" on the Euro 4 runs in a row please!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKIE does not look suppressed based on the 144 map. Waiting for the better maps on pivotal… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 For the period around the 10-11th, you can cycle through the 500mb vorticity panels of the last several runs and see what we need quite clearly. When our 50/50 low is sitting over Vermont, there’s no storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie is going into the Lakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still some decent snow at 138 and 141 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 UKIE is good looking on Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie big hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie big hit More north of us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, yoda said: Ukie is going into the Lakes lol You can see the WAA axis still resulting in a hit, but definitely on the south end of it this go. FRZA line is close to DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Gfs in a little world of its own suppressing the storm to Puerto Rico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 33 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Pretty major differences there and we are now at only the 150 hour mark “Only 150”. lol. you’re right but it wasn’t long ago 150 was unicorn fantasy land and further than most operational models even went! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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