SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a lot more organized at 123. Looks harder to shred. I think it may just get suppressed, there is so much more confluence further southwest than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Snow entering SW VA at 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: I think it may just get suppressed, there is so much more confluence further southwest than the Euro. yeah, I'm at 150 and it's 100% more suppressed than EURO/ICON. We know what to look for, at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I can't tell if this is sarcasm... Not meant to be sarcasm. This looks like it has a better chance to be suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It’s def way south of any other model. But with shifts like it just had between 6z 12z it’s not very believable. Just another turd laid by the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Central VA at 147 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Shears out at 153 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I think it’s going south but it’s not the string out mess it was which is a step in the right direction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Had a feeling this would trend south....its just one model and the Euro seems to have best handle on this event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That NE cutoff spins down and just crushes everything. Baby steps i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Still a ratter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Were any of the 2009/10 real coldies The late January one that started the crazy stretch was pretty cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Definitely a better look and a step towards King Euro. I’ll bet happy hour GooFuS will be the one we want to see. I’ll start tailgating for that run around 3:30. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Gfs doesn’t know it’s anus from a hole in the ground. Just look at the changes it had early on. They were massive. No wonder it’s the worst scoring model right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Pretty easy to see comparing the two. Look over New England. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, LP08 said: Pretty easy to see comparing the two. Look over New England. 12z CMC wants to split the difference through 120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 CMC rollin in. So far faster and more amped over the plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Pretty easy to see comparing the two. Look over New England. Pretty major differences there and we are now at only the 150 hour mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The late January one that started the crazy stretch was pretty cold. With a last minute north trend. Looked like a RIC special from 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Pretty major differences there and we are now at only the 150 hour mark That's the kind of detail that can honestly change with 48-72 hours on the clock. We've been rooting for/against that exact feature many times. Long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The little disturbance that could give us a coating of snow on Friday gets a bit to strong offshore and helps shred the Monday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: CMC rollin in. So far faster and more amped over the plains Looks like the Canadian may have gotten the memo from the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Adding onto @LP08 post about the confluence over the northeast, but when messaging @brooklynwx99 about why the GFS sheared out the storm on previous runs they mentioned how it was running into a wall of confluence, so naturally it would have a hard time holding itself together. I think our biggest concern as of now is actually getting less confluence over the northeast so it's able to have precip get to us, right now the concern is more suppression/shearing than cutting. So when watching future model runs I think one of the most important pieces to look at will be where the wall of confluence sets up over the northeast. Here are the runs of the GFS and EURO to make that point 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 There's a reason why the Canadian is called the GEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Looking really good at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 CMC is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, Heisy said: The 50/50 and confluence was weaker/N. 6z euro would have been a bump N for sure, but it still would have been a very good hit. It was probably perfect, but it won’t matter in about 3 hours anyway. Pay attention to the confluence in my GIF . Maybe, I think it looks pretty similar def not a large shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Snowing DC metro at 144 on 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: Looks like the Canadian may have gotten the memo from the King CMC is gonna be a hit, the confluence over the northeast is Eurolike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looking really good at 144 Doesn't make it with the wave one precip beyond a C-2 locally - more CVA. Shredded. See if it does what it did at 0z and reform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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