IronTy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: GFS having snow in the Gulf of Mexico probably means it’s out to lunch The Rio Grande valley blizzard of '25. Or maybe the south Beach coastal storm of '25? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 CMC, Euro, and GFS runs today/tonight generally agree on the track. Not a cutter, but not overly suppressed either. The key player is “50/50” low and whether it moves/rotates a bit out of the way to give the s/w room to amplify, but not so far out that we don’t get confluence and therefore it cuts. The cutter risk is lower now, and we should be happy with a suppressed/sheared track this far out. Plenty of time for it to evolve. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Indeed... Snow in Northern FLA LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Meh...it looked good, but slides to far SE of us I don't want to be a debut downer, but the 8th is nearly dead for me. It'll be highs in the 20s while the Carolinas get snow (or supression causes even the Carolinas to miss. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, IronTy said: The Rio Grande valley blizzard of '25. Or maybe the south Beach coastal storm of '25? Any solution showing 4 inches of snow in New Orleans and accumulating snow in Tallahassee for 1/9 shouldn’t be viewed as a likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, bncho said: I don't want to be a debut downer, but the 8th is nearly dead for me. It'll be highs in the 20s while the Carolinas get snow (or supression causes even the Carolinas to miss. Models can't even figure out next monday yet and you're declaring something even farther away dead? 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, bncho said: I don't want to be a debut downer, but the 8th is nearly dead for me. It'll be highs in the 20s while the Carolinas get snow (or supression causes even the Carolinas to miss. Since you’re just making your debut, maybe stay out of the long rage thread and head to banter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 That end of the Gem run looked like it had possibilities. But that's what this night of runs has come to I guess. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, rjvanals said: Any solution showing 4 inches of snow in New Orleans and accumulating snow in Tallahassee for 1/9 shouldn’t be viewed as a likely outcome I actually think the 00Z GFS was an improvement over the 18Z so I'm still in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 As long as the ukie can't cut, it should turn out ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie jumped right over us. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ukie snow https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ukmo_global&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2024123100&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 I doubt the Ukie will ever happen, but at least it gives credence to Euro solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 As @Terpeast said all models have a similar track. It's just going to come down to the confluence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GEFS ensembles don’t show any real OV low signal anymore for 1/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, rjvanals said: GEFS ensembles don’t show any real cutter signal anymore for 1/6 that was never a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ocean storm is sucking it dry.Where’s ravens rule when ya need him most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I was as well - just barely pulls something out. Subtracting what falls this Fri/Sat... Lots of solutions recently from the GFS and Euro, but w/ the cold and pattern being perfect and seeded with unpredictable shortwaves, it just appears to want to snow or ice in our sub around the 6th, details tbd. i am excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Euro looks good. Cutting just enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 2 minutes ago, bncho said: Euro looks good. Cutting just enough. That’s a narrow stripe but yep, great run. Lots of fun still to happen! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Holy fucking shit. The Euro saves us again. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 4 minutes ago, bncho said: Holy fucking shit. The Euro saves us again. The Euro is on a dream run. 240hrs out and it looks to set up something huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s a narrow stripe but yep, great run. Lots of fun still to happen! Wow. That's 3 runs in a row, but not much room for error. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Jaws? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Wow. That's 3 runs in a row, but not much room for error.Remember the euro 3 run rule in year 2000-2004? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, Ji said: Remember the euro 3 run rule in year 2000-2004? Hell no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Wtf is everyone? Zwtys Marcus Randy 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Gefs gives us all <1". Euro better be right, or a lot closer to right than wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Ji said: Wtf is everyone? Zwtys Marcus Randy Marcus??? He hasn't posted here ever, unless he's posting under another name. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gefs gives us all <1". Euro better be right, or a lot closer to right than wrong. I'll take 16 inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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