stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, IronTy said: Let's wait to see what it delivers us first. Can't really glean anything yet...just that out west, s/w is more consolidated and not as diggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 21 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I just watched that video.. it's eerily similar to what's going on now.. was a good pick up by JB. JB is all about analogs.. and that jan 1964 storm is very very similar. Definitely something to watch as we get closer!! So are dozens of others that didn’t end up that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Fwiw, CMC is stronger and faster with the western s/w. Will be an interesting comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, psuhoffman said: So are dozens of others that didn’t end up that extreme. Very true!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 At 132hrs, 0z Gfs 5H looks almost identical to 18z Euro if you can believe it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ridge in between the s/w and the clipper trough looks weaker, may help keep cold in place better, but might be a weaker storm in terms of less risk that it cuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The only way for the storm to bust thru that block is with a tight, closed low, which is what the Icon had and now the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Can't really glean anything yet...just that out west, s/w is more consolidated and not as diggy Should tilt the boundary layer up-axis of the main vort swinging down, I see it as a good thing. At the very least it'll increase denridation at the lower levels so at least we have that going for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Idk, Gfs seems to really be making something out of that Friday clipper, which is only going to push the boundary further south. Other models aren't doing that I don't believe. did someone say the Jan 4 storm is back? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Will be better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 So at the sfc down over TX, precip is more robust and more uh...for lack of better word...flatter...but that might not be a bad thing yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, Solution Man said: Will be better than 18z Bold man with that call. Could be, but I ain't going out on that limb yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 GFS looks really good for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Will be better than 18z I think this shears out again but maybe a baby step 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Trended colder in the midwest/plains 3 runs in a row per gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 It really needs to keep that closed 5H low intact as long as possible to hold it together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, bncho said: GFS looks really good for the GFS. Looks like it's doing the GFS thing of looking good early on...precip starting to weaken on it's way up here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: I think this shears out again but maybe a baby step Winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Less NS energy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: Looks like it's doing the GFS thing of looking good early on...precip starting to weaken on it's way up here so far You didn't get the joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 weak sauce bullshit again. Somebody turn the GFS off and turn it on again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ocean storm is sucking it dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 More confluence over the east. Much more than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It really needs to keep that closed 5H low intact as long as possible to hold it together. Yup..it gets crushed and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ocean storm is sucking it dry. main MSLP also really is down in Alabama/Mississippi -- would be one thing if it could turn up the coast... need a cuttier-but-also-suppressed storm. A little too thread the needle for how we often win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 No way it wins with this behemoth out in the Atlantic. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Ironically a faster pac jet would help kick things to the east here, but not so much thay it cuts. Delicate balance, and models won’t get this pinned down until 4 days before the event. Still resolving the clipper, which seems to have trended stronger. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Screw this, I'm going to hop on over to Expedia to check flights now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Frustrating for sure, but we're still in the 2nd quarter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: No way it wins with this behemoth out in the Atlantic. Need to get that out of there or just be weaker which it was progged to be until more recent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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