January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

Actually, I  see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

[clskinsfan]

0Z HRRR gets some streamers out this way New Years afternoon. For those of us that live in the middle of nowhere. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

The 0z runs will be telling!!

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We can always get a simple trailing wave type deal. As for the extreme cold- when we get a pattern such as is being advertised, there is always a risk we could get an unusual cold air outbreak, and operational runs may depict that from time to time at range, but in reality it occurs infrequently at our latitude in the lowlands. Now if we get decent snow cover with a cold airmass in place in the days that follow, low temps of zero or below can more easily be realized outside of urban areas. 

Thank you!

[mitchnick]

Euro AI takes southern piece and spawns a coastal that is better south. Here's precip link.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024123018&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mitchnick]

EuroAI has a lot to learn methinks. 

[winter_warlock]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

It's  still    a long ways out.   Modeling will look different in a few days lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

Actually, I  see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

[wasnow215]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Surely this is a troll.

"A couple of single digits" is just something to scoff at in the Mid-Atlantic.

Not at all lol-the original polar vortex "excitement" was based on some historic forecasted low actual temps even in the lowlands. So my forecasted temperature change question was based more on wondering if something has changed with how the vortex will break down to allow the extreme code to come this far south and east  that's all. Cape answered tho.

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 0z runs will be telling!!

  Lol no they won't. Not for 2 storms  that are 1 week and 10 days out

 No solution will really come clear untill we get within 72 or 96 hours of event

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

It's  still    a long ways out.   Modeling will look different in a few days lol

We’ve got literally nothing else to look at or do. We’re sickos. Heck, @clskinsfanjust admitted he checked out the 48th hour of the 00z HRRR just for kicks for flurries nobody is even tracking. 

If we didn’t check the models and post them every 6 hours we’d have nothing to talk about. All that would be left is sports banter and beer pictures. Maybe that would be better… 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI takes southern piece and spawns a coastal that is better south. Here's precip link.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024123018&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Looks like the same idea previous GFS runs had.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 0z runs will be telling!!

Yeah, telling us we'll need to wait until the weekend. 

[Ji]

The 0z runs will be telling!!

The euro ai might be the most Jumpy model out there. It’s all over the place run to run

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

Looks like the same idea previous GFS runs had.

At 4/day, I  can't remember them all. Lol 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We’ve got literally nothing else to look at or do. We’re sickos. Heck, @clskinsfanjust admitted he checked out the 48th hour of the 00z HRRR just for kicks for flurries nobody is even tracking. 

If we didn’t check the models and post them every 6 hours we’d have nothing to talk about. All that would be left is sports banter and beer pictures. Maybe that would be better… 

 Oh I agree...  I look at them every 6 hours I'm just saying don't put alot of stock in modeling 150- 170+ hours out lol.  

[winter_warlock]

 Does any of us really wanna be in the bullseye 7 days out or even worst 10 days out?? Lol relax people!!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

  Lol no they won't. Not for 2 storms  that are 1 week and 10 days out

 No solution will really come clear untill we get within 72 or 96 hours of event

It's kind of a saying up in here. You must be new.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, CAPE said:

It's kind of a saying up in here. You must be new.

 Lol new? Nope. Been in theis group for  14 years lol I just see people getting  discouraged  and I'm just saying too early to model hug lol

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 4/day, I  can't remember them all. Lol 

[mitchnick]

Just now, CAPE said:

I see why you remembered that run and I  didn't.  Lol 

[somecallmetim]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

The euro ai might be the most Jumpy model out there. It’s all over the place run to run

Perhaps it's just learning fast that is what models do and trying to outdo them at it?

[Weather Will]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

Shocking development!  Just seeing that myself. Still deciding on whether to put out my heat mats before Monday.... 

[87storms]

All I know is that the 0z runs will be telling.

[WhiteoutMD]

33 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Maue

In terms of climate context, this upcoming Arctic blast has the circulation pattern right. But the available cold pool is not remotely as intense as it could be for early January. Record breaking or historical cold would see -40°C at 850 hPa. We can barely muster -20°C.

[TSSN+]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

EuroAI has a lot to learn methinks. 

It’s learning, learning how to screw us over. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s learning, learning how to screw us over. 

Well, it is the child of Doctor no so it is fitting... must be something in the algorithm's dna apparently. A little evil side that loves to f*ck us. Whenever someone posts that model I think of "Mini Me" from Austin Powers. 

[wasnow215]

23 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Maue

In terms of climate context, this upcoming Arctic blast has the circulation pattern right. But the available cold pool is not remotely as intense as it could be for early January. Record breaking or historical cold would see -40°C at 850 hPa. We can barely muster -20°C.

This makes sense thanks!

[wxmeddler]

27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s learning, learning how to screw us over. 

Well since the only thing it knows is history, its learned that we generally just get screwed.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I don't think rain will be an issue for Jan 6th.. upper latitude pattern is too favorable for cold. Question is does the storm get sheared out or not. 

LR GFS ensembles look good still at 384hr! No signs of -PNA that it seemed to be trending toward at the end last night, -EPO, sustained -NAO, West coast ridge..

-AO is going really strong

6-10 day shows the CPC thinks this coming storm has a chance..

 Wow that AO.  Is going negative hard!!