January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't know what to root for with this one as I could see a fail in any direction. 

Yeah we love complex, don't we lol. I kinda like where the Euro is now, with a quieter NS. At this point NS interaction seems more likely to be destructive than constructive(see the GFS)

I think 3-6, 4-8 is probably the best case outcome, and everyone should be happy with that.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nobody goes to Florida on purpose dude.

You have to if you like to cruise.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah we love complex, don't we lol. I kinda like where the Euro is now, with a quieter NS. At this point NS interaction seems more likely to be destructive than constructive(see the GFS)

I think 3-6, 4-8 is probably the best case outcome, and everyone should be happy with that.

Heck I’d be happy with 2-4” it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Just let it snow! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Heck I’d be happy with 2-4” it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Just let it snow! 

Agree, my bar for the 6th is 2 inches.  I think the boom scenario is what the Euro is showing with 4-8 region wide/no temp issues. 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah we love complex, don't we lol. I kinda like where the Euro is now, with a quieter NS. At this point NS interaction seems more likely to be destructive than constructive(see the GFS)

I think 3-6, 4-8 is probably the best case outcome, and everyone should be happy with that.

I don't like seeing it slow down. I think we get the best outcome smashing the s/w into the cold as fast as possible giving the best dynamics. Delayed is so often denied. Plus, closed lows (which it is now showing for the first time) west of the Mississippi rarely turn out well in our back yards. We'll see. Plenty of time of modeling to explore even more bad options. Lol 

[mitchnick]

Figure this out...18z Euro with a stronger vort but 18z Eps weaker than 12z run.

[LongRanger]

18z GFS has -30 to -40 2m temps in northern plains at 276, h5 reminds me of Jan 1977

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't like seeing it slow down. I think we get the best outcome smashing the s/w into the cold as fast as possible giving the best dynamics. Delayed is so often denied. Plus, closed lows (which it is now showing for the first time) west of the Mississippi rarely turn out well in our back yards. We'll see. Plenty of time of modeling to explore even more bad options. Lol 

Such a delicate balance for us to get snow. In this case the NS vorticity digging south overtop on the GFS is such that the divergence from that develops another surface low to the north, which places the best lift further north. That's mostly why we end up with lighter precip. Euro is completely different up top, so I'm not worried too much about it being a tad slower or the cold not staying in place as the moisture comes in- not with that advertised NA look. Just need the Euro stay the course, and be right!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Figure this out...18z Euro with a stronger vort but 18z Eps weaker than 12z run.

Models are trying to handle the continuously building -NAO.. they may be a little too dry right now, just doing what the index typically favors from the medium range. I love that 50/50 low. 

[TSSN+]

34 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Figure this out...18z Euro with a stronger vort but 18z Eps weaker than 12z run.

Vort in Midwest looks weaker/crushed compared to 12z but honestly this is all just dust at this point. Each run shows different pieces of energy. 

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Vort in Midwest looks weaker/crushed compared to 12z but honestly this is all just dust at this point. Each run shows different pieces of energy. 

Because it's slower, it's a little harder to compare apples to apples.

On a positive note, Ukie ensembles have the best snowfall yet. Remember folks, ensembles are always lighter, so this ain't bad. 

Also, below is a link to slp at 162 hrs. Not bad either.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=sfcmslp-meanmem&rh=2024123018&fh=162&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't think rain will be an issue for Jan 6th.. upper latitude pattern is too favorable for cold. Question is does the storm get sheared out or not. 

LR GFS ensembles look good still at 384hr! No signs of -PNA that it seemed to be trending toward at the end last night, -EPO, sustained -NAO, West coast ridge..

-AO is going really strong

6-10 day shows the CPC thinks this coming storm has a chance..

[bncho]

I really don't want the 8-10th storm to be supressed. Ensembles have lost the signal a little bit.

[Ruin]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

I really don't want the 8-10th storm to be supressed. Ensembles have lost the signal a little bit.

Yeah sadly it's either a cutter or to cold and pushes the systems south even tho strong lows like to go north 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

it shouldnt be that complicated with those characters. My guess is if this was the pattern last year with that strong STJ...we would be tracking something from 10 days out without much change

Well yeah but this is a winter with a weaker/retracted STJ, with most of the action in the Polar Jet, and combined with a -WPO/EPO, a -AO/NAO and a TPV lobe squeezed in between, that equals chaos. Yes, it is that complicated.

[wasnow215]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well yeah but this is a winter with a weaker/retracted STJ, with most of the action in the Polar Jet, and combined with a -WPO/EPO, a -AO/NAO and a TPV lobe squeezed in between, that equals chaos. Yes, it is that complicated.

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

[Prestige Worldwide]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1873902528070398213?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A

[mitchnick]

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

Surely this is a troll.

"A couple of single digits" is just something to scoff at in the Mid-Atlantic.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

On 12/28/2024 at 9:25 PM, psuhoffman said:

Please tell me you’re just pretending to be this confused. We still get cold snaps. The planet hasn’t warmed so much that there isn’t still damn cold air in winter somewhere in the arctic and once in a blue moon if something displaces that air into the mid latitudes it will still get cold. But record heat is outnumbering cold 3-1. We are spending way more time above avg than below. But the system is chaotic with short term variance within the long term trend. And yes there is evidence we are getting bigger snowstorms when they happen but they are starting to happen so much more infrequently that it’s still a bad trade off.  

I know psu.  I am just trying to find a silver lining.  

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

We can always get a simple trailing wave type deal. As for the extreme cold- when we get a pattern such as is being advertised, there is always a risk we could get an unusual cold air outbreak, and operational runs may depict that from time to time at range, but in reality it occurs infrequently at our latitude in the lowlands. Now if we get decent snow cover with a cold airmass in place in the days that follow, low temps of zero or below can more easily be realized outside of urban areas. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

Actually, I  see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

We need to hit big on Jan 6. I think Jan 8 has hope, though--we system on the 6th dictates what happens to the 8th but I'm leaning towards a lost cause. 
 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s closer on Jan. 8 though, at least. Some solace for a weary group. 

Actually, I  see what it did. It split the energy when it hit the coast sending a weak piece east and a stronger piece into the SW. It looks to maybe do something with that. We'll see shortly.

[clskinsfan]

0Z HRRR gets some streamers out this way New Years afternoon. For those of us that live in the middle of nowhere. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just lost the 18z EuroAI. Crushed south.

The 0z runs will be telling!!

[wasnow215]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

We can always get a simple trailing wave type deal. As for the extreme cold- when we get a pattern such as is being advertised, there is always a risk we could get an unusual cold air outbreak, and operational runs may depict that from time to time at range, but in reality it occurs infrequently at our latitude in the lowlands. Now if we get decent snow cover with a cold airmass in place in the days that follow, low temps of zero or below can more easily be realized outside of urban areas. 

Thank you!

[mitchnick]

Euro AI takes southern piece and spawns a coastal that is better south. Here's precip link.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&p=qpf_024h-imp&rh=2024123018&fh=222&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[mitchnick]

EuroAI has a lot to learn methinks.