January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[psuhoffman]

2009 was one of my top analogs and ended badly for us despite a pretty good pattern on the Atlantic side for a chunk of the winter. 

but the biggest difference and why I started to think maybe this year has more potential than I was giving it, the pacific. The guidance is showing almost the opposite pattern there and way closer to a typical Nino than Nina look. If that is legit the bar is a lot higher. The Nina pac with central pac ridge and NW Canada trough is a severe limiting factor on our chances even with blocking. It doesn’t matter that we are in cold enso of the pacific doesn’t actually have a Nina long wave pattern. Similarly to how recent ninos don’t help when the pattern never couples with a canonical Nino configuration. 

[CAPE]

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south.

I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

 

[Weather Will]

Lot to sort out the next two weeks, but the advice to ignore the globals outside five days is sound.  Big differences between WB 6Z GEFS (first two pictures) and WB 6Z GFS.

[brooklynwx99]

yeah the GEFS looks good with the 4-6th timeframe. juiced SS vort potentially running into confluence... the thing is that you can have a cutter if 1) the SS vort cuts off for whatever reason or 2) if there isn't sufficient confluence. but every setup has its fail modes

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot to sort out the next two weeks, but the advice to ignore the globals outside five days is sound.  Big differences between WB 6Z GEFS (first two pictures) and WB 6Z GFS.

You don't 'ignore' the global operational runs outside of day 5. They are a tool same as the ensembles are.  The trick is to know how to use them. In the h5 maps above the general pattern is actually very similar, but one is a higher resolution op run and the other is a mean constructed from 30 differently perturbed lower resolution ens members, each potentially with differences in timing and location of features.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south.

I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

 

I don't  have the fancy pay maps (my extra $ goes towards those fancy craft beers) but on TT the 6z gefs is better this time period. 3rd-4th storm the euro op had as a fantasy sets the stage for this followup wave around the 7th give or take. We'll see 

[WxUSAF]

 

[baltosquid]

Of course I’m traveling on the 4th and will not be back until the 11th. Hopefully there’s a welcome home storm in the cards (after touching down of course).

[bncho]

A swing and a hit from the Euro AI.