stormy Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Very simple! Trash the 18Z GFS and look forward to 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think it is trying to jump. Seemed odd to me. It was tapping the Gulf pretty well. I don’t buy the GFS. That was a solid juice bomb inbound and was similar to what euro had depicted up to that juncture. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It’s the first step to the Euro, by Thursday we will be tracking 4-8” on all the models. we hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agreed. Some kind of frontrunning s/w just screws us IMO Good news is that s/w isn't showing up in any of the other guidance and without it we'd have had a good result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I mean no two models are really showing the same solution still so we have no idea what to except. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Do we care about fantasy land? Kinda hmmm rn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. lol what a good model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Do we care about fantasy land? Kinda hmmm rn We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. It's trying...not sure it's gonna make it tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: We like the concept of that N stream vort coming to pick up the Gulf low. It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land The Atlantic is a mess, but this is 11 days out. The initial vort that goes into TX doesn't even hit the pac NW until Monday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: The Atlantic is a mess, but this is 11 days out. The initial vort that goes into TX doesn't even hit the pac NW until Monday! Yeah, it's like the gays gathering for "game night". Messy. It's a good look tho. I hate the GFS. 1 10 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land Also who knows if it is even right with the 5th storm so doesn’t matter if the h5 is off with that one anything after is wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not gonna turn the corner in time, but I'd roll the dice with that H5 look in fantasy land Def something you like to see. That’s the Miller A we’ve all been longing for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Doesn't work this time but the ceiling is about as high as it gets with that look. Plenty of blocking but with so much ns energy being thrown around this doesn't look like a long track pattern. Big storm may not be consistent until D3-5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, TSSN+ said: Also who knows if it is even right with the 5th storm so doesn’t matter if the h5 is off with that one anything after is wrong Yup. I honestly don't give any credence to anything after the 5/6th at this point. 5th is FAR from settled, especially with the Euro saying yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 One thing seems like a lock. We gon' have the cold for a while. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS at Day 10 looks absolutely nothing like the 12z run. The pattern is too messy. When we have a pattern with plentiful cold air, I’m more willing then usual to shotgun shortwaves at us and see what lands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Doesn’t even look like there was more than 2” of digital snow that entire run. Onto 0z… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Cool. High near 30 in Tallahassee next Saturday on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 this is why blocking patterns are so favorable... watch how everything slows way down and allows for a phase, albeit messy. a +NAO pattern wouldn't even be close to one 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 26 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it's like the gays gathering for "game night". Messy. It's a good look tho. I hate the GFS. Hating the GFS is a must, till it shows something good… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Better 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 18z Euro coming out now. It goes out 144hrs, so we should have a decent idea whether it's holding serve. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Better Yeah, that's what I like to see. Look at that 50/50 Low. This storm actually has a lot of upside potential NE of DC. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Cool. High near 30 in Tallahassee next Saturday on the GFS. Good time to go on vacation. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. it shouldnt be that complicated with those characters. My guess is if this was the pattern last year with that strong STJ...we would be tracking something from 10 days out without much change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Man the advertised pattern is radical, with the -EPO/WPO and the NAO block doing the squeeze play on the TPV. NS vortices flying around, vortex stretching.. we probably gonna have to do complicated to get our snow lol. Dang man where was this blocking last year? Woulda been epic! Complicated is annoying as heck but, if it must be... Also, is the gulf spitting out some waves or am I not looking at it right? (I assume that's not the STJ?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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