MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this same thing happened last year in mid-Feb where ABE got 12" of snow on like 20-30:1 ratios from a clipper with a FGEN band It's those dynamical features that get overlooked in the grand scheme that end up creating surprises. I pay close attention to those details. Also, the topographic enhancements in these parts that don't get solved or mentioned closer in can have a significant impact on totals. It's why I prefer the short range over long any day of the week 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 We're getting the party started with a WSW out here in the Highlands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 33 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That’s what I’m saying man. Forget the Big Dog hunting and go with the safest thing. Right now, if we can lock in the Euro solution, I don’t care about anything else until AFTER we get that first taste. Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Sterling has added the chance of snowon 6th-7th to. Central MD forecast. So they obviously see what we see lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Sterling has added the chance of snowon 6th-7th to. Central MD forecast. So they obviously see what we see lol WeatherBug has has snow chances for SoMD for a couple days now for next Monday. A good sign. We leave our DC home and head back to Calvert Wednesday and I need to take the pond pump out and replace it with the air bubbler before the deep freeze kicks off. I've ruined two expensive pumps by waiting too long in the past and having them freeze up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this same thing happened last year in mid-Feb where ABE got 12" of snow on like 20-30:1 ratios from a clipper with a FGEN band Yes. Plus it is so rare for us to get this advertised cold after a snow. We would be measuring snowpack for weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 The handling of the 5H vorticity across Canada will be important in the final outcome here as noted by the GFS/ECMWF discrepancies. Until one caves to the other, we will have dueling outcomes. The jury is still out for the setup and bet we haven't seen the final result yet out of any run. One thing that is notable is a majority of the these outcomes, regardless of evolution are yielding some form of snow/winter precip. Always good to have ways to score. I still like the Jan 6th storm. It has a ton of moisture in the Midwest, moving into a -NAO block and 50/50 low. Very unlikely it will split off in pieces like the GFS is showing, there will probably be at least a 1-2 day space between waves, or it may organize as the front end storm completely. In which case, it could be a decent thump of snow with the moisture Jan 5-6. Not really a strong -EPO pattern yet on Jan 5/6, which is usually associated with a lot of ice. I love snow that precedes colder periods. These have been more rare lately. Yea, that system is entering the window of being a legit threat. Looks like gom will be at least partially open for business as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Remember under to all those homeowners to check their outdoor hose spigots and disconnect the hoses before the deep freeze! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 42 minutes ago, katabatic said: We're getting the party started with a WSW out here in the Highlands. Looks like 4-8" potential, and then another round coming Friday to add to it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 19 minutes ago, IronTy said: Remember under to all those homeowners to check their outdoor hose spigots and disconnect the hoses before the deep freeze! Don't tell me how to live my life! j/k 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 22 minutes ago, jonjon said: Looks like 4-8" potential, and then another round coming Friday to add to it. Going to be deep winter out in your parts jonjon. Enjoy, and be sure to post pictures 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. Counting the normal creep north and boom. Jackpot zone for this guy 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. dang! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. That’s exactly where I wanna see the stripe. That screams good moderate event with no precip issues to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. How do the parameters differ on the AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 that would be a big hit for central Va to DC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: How do the parameters differ on the AI? I like to redirect people to the article published by the ECMWF - I'm sure there is also more in-depth literature published somewhere for the real nerds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. Looks like 5-10” with southern areas getting the higher end of that. I’ll take! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 37 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. Just got to stop the south trend though or soon enough it will join get crushed/strung out crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 52 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AI Euro is a respectable snowstorm - this should be all snow Fredericksburg and north. Gross eta - for those of us to the north - that’s how we have gone since 2019 without a warning level event - Jan 2022 when that particular stripe got 6-11 inches we got a dusting. but, sure, hope it goes down just like that, rooting for you all. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 32 minutes ago, Ji said: dang! I'm in the blue you're in the green up there in Western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 21 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Gross eta - for those of us to the north - that’s how we have gone since 2019 without a warning level event - Jan 2022 when that particular stripe got 6-11 inches we got a dusting. but, sure, hope it goes down just like that, rooting for you all. Some of that blue to to south might be rain/mix. Up where you are, colder, better ratios. I wouldn't kick 0.43" out of the bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Nothing of real note so far...so minor differences out west with our s/w just a tiny bit souther. It's early on. And I'm having a nice drink. Let's get some good vibes going gang 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Gross eta - for those of us to the north - that’s how we have gone since 2019 without a warning level event - Jan 2022 when that particular stripe got 6-11 inches we got a dusting. but, sure, hope it goes down just like that, rooting for you all. Rather have 0”? I’ll take 4-6” off that run any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nothing of real note so far...so minor differences out west with our s/w just a tiny bit souther. It's early on. And I'm having a nice drink. Let's get some good vibes going gang Looks like the confluence is also west of 12z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Still earlier, but notable differences out west vs 12z. trough/sw is a good bit farther south and west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, TSSN+ said: Looks like the confluence is also west of 12z so far. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Some early signs of a more Euro like outcome. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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