MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Seen it modeled plenty of times like that at range, just never usually ever actually occurs. Pretty hard to get the PV displaced over our hood. Can only imagine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. We usually get at least some snow showers/squalls with the arrival of a true cA air mass. GFS sorts of hints at it with the snows along the boundary as it drops through the Midwest, but the model doesn’t think the moisture survives the mountains. I would think you’re correct that if heights crash that much, something would generate on the lee side of the Appalachians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I don’t think any storm will be modeled until 3 days before it actually takes place, especially with this upcoming pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: We usually get at least some snow showers/squalls with the arrival of a true cA air mass. GFS sorts of hints at it with the snows along the boundary as it drops through the Midwest, but the model doesn’t think the moisture survives the mountains. I would think you’re correct that if heights crash that much, something would generate on the lee side of the Appalachians. The mountains usually is our enemy minus cad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t believe that the PV right over our backyards is going to happen. I think storm tracks will verify further north than modeled, so I would mentally adjust any suppressive looks north. Not sure why I got weenie tagged for this comment. In the same way, when a perfect track is modeled at 200 hr, chances are it ends up being a cutter unless we get the PV to press down. Still a very NS-driven pattern so models are going to struggle beyond 4-5 days out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 EURO is crawling this morning. Must be loading the double HECS 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is crawling this morning. Must be loading the double HECS Its trying to 1up the GFS by putting the PV in the GOM. Take that yanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is crawling this morning. Must be loading the double HECS I've waited THIRTY MINUTES and it's gone from 0hrs to 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO is crawling this morning. Must be loading the double HECS Even the actual Euro site is only out to 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 stuck on 60 hrs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Ok I’m not crazy, I was like ok I swear the panels come out faster than this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ok I’m not crazy, I was like ok I swear the panels come out faster than this. Now see this used to be the speed that they came out, lol...we're spoiled now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 54 minutes ago, CAPE said: I have been keeping an eye on it too. GFS and CMC both have a coating, mostly for southern parts of the region. modest, emphasis on modest, improvement on 12z EURO. Dusting for SE MD and the Tidewater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 50 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Pretty hard to get the PV displaced over our hood. Can only imagine Just your typical stratospheric intrusion down to 550-600mb or so lol 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, Newman said: Just your typical stratospheric intrusion down to 550-600mb or so lol That's one to save for posterity lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 EURO is a solid WSW level-hit for Jan. 6 - maps incoming. 8 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Everything else on the run is suppressed to oblivion. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Everything else on the run is suppressed to oblivion. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Eps is out too. 12z run better than 0z. 0z on top. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, mitchnick said: Eps is out too. 12z run better than 0z. 0z on top. EPS is definitely a step in the right direction. We do want it colder and more suppressed as I’d rather be on the north side a week out than to the south 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: This is true - but will warn that the EPS is increasingly looking the same way. Week(s) to go - but be aware! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Huge difference at h5 up north compared to the GFS. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is true - but will warn that the EPS is increasingly looking the same way. Week(s) to go - but be aware! Let’s see if it even can get the storm next week right first before worrying about the extended extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: This is true - but will warn that the EPS is increasingly looking the same way. Week(s) to go - but be aware! Me thinks we're gonna have to wait for that block to relax some...after whatever we get from early next week. It kinda how we roll...we're more of a relax climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Huge difference at h5 up north compared to the GFS. yea much more consolidated. very little interference with the northern stream like the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: yea much more consolidated. very little interference with the northern stream like the GFS And the southern s/w looks a little faster this run than 0z euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: EPS is definitely a step in the right direction. We do want it colder and more suppressed as I’d rather be on the north side a week out than to the south Yep. Rule of thumb is big storms eventually trend northwest... unless I read that wrong years ago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Man the gfs has been getting stomped. Hopefully that’s the case here and the euro is correct. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I think we have all been trained and rightfully so to trust the least snowiest model. Why cant they just both show the same thing lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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