TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, GEM def looks more interesting than the GFS for sure. I'd be shocked as well if it cuts...but we've seen it all so far It’s absolutely garbage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, Shad said: few flakes to ice to nothing, strung out mess. Look to the north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, GEM def looks more interesting than the GFS for sure. I'd be shocked as well if it cuts...but we've seen it all so far lol...it cuts. Correction. Gets strung out? Yeah, it's a strung out mess...sorta like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 gets squashed as it gets to the east coast......on to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alfoman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol...it cuts GEM and GFS honestly relatively similar looks at 500 mb while the vort is still out west - GFS just quicker by 6-12 hours and cuts hard due to the interaction with the TPV vorticity in Canada sooner. After hour 156 though... good lord GEM has a nightmare reputation with deciphering a progressive NS like we'd have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 GFS would imply mostly snow and sleet before ending but its weak sauce https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024123012/gfs_ref_frzn_us_28.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 We getting greedy? lol That's not the storm we want. It's the follow up, we're looking to. If anything happens with the 6-7th, that's bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol...it cuts. Correction. Gets strung out? Yeah, it's a strung out mess...sorta like the GFS it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 What in the lsd is going on here… lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS would imply mostly snow and sleet before ending but its weak sauce https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2024123012/gfs_ref_frzn_us_28.png It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: What in the lsd is going on here… lol I think we'd best heed Millersville's post earlier this morning. Models are gonna struggle with this kind of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It's not weak sauce up north. You run a weather facebook page. You should know why. You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, mitchnick said: You'll need to subscribe first to get an answer. I actually posted it in 2 pictures above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 06z AIFS is a 1-2" baby thump followed by rain/sleet for the 6th. No follow up storms after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Sure would be nice to have some snow cover to see what kind of temps this could produce. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 16 minutes ago, Ji said: it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared I edited like 3 minutes after I typed that my dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Ukie is crushed...along with our dreams. Meh these things keep flopping won’t concerned about it for a few more days I’m sure there a bunch of new solutions on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Rough 12z so far. I’m still hopeful for a 2-4” front end deal on the 6th. I don’t think that’s out of the question yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 17 minutes ago, Ji said: it does not cut---it goes way south of us but gets sheared You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Sure would be nice to have some snow cover to see what kind of temps this could produce. I would think that would generate something that produces some instability snow squalls especially if it was further south of us and maybe SW of us. not sure I have ever seen that look so I am also curious what it can do...fun things maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1st storm is 7-8 days out and second storm is 10-11 days out . I wouldn't even pay any attention to modeling for these storms till about Thursday for storm 1 and Monday for storm 2. Wayy too early to get excited or discouraged by what the models say now lol we all know those models will look totally different in A week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: That storm would be the penultimate blizzard verbatim. That has shades of 1993 written on it. A sharp shortwave dig phases across the SE US and causes the whole 5H axis to go negative east of the Mississippi. I would do unspeakable things for that to occur. Interesting that's a potential evolution in the cards. I'm utilizing the deterministic as an ensemble at this point to gauge potential. There's multiple ways to score in this pattern, but failure is 100% on the table when looking at how the pattern will evolve. I hope we hit on at least one. This is what I mean when I say you all are way the hell overdue. If that evolution stayed all snow in DC, the outcome would be unspeakably glorious for snow enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I would think that would generate something that produces some instability snow squalls especially if it was further south of us and maybe SW of us. not sure I have ever seen that look so I am also curious what it can do...fun things maybe. That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 1st storm is 7-8 days out and second storm is 10-11 days out . I wouldn't even pay any attention to modeling for these storms till about Thursday for storm 1 and Monday for storm 2. Wayy too early to get excited or discouraged by what the models say now lol we all know those models will look totally different in A week Speaking of not giving up until the shorter-range, I'll keep beating the Jan. 4 drum. ICON ens (as I understand it, a fork of the EPS) took about a ~200m jump to the NE. Still got 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That would produce some insane snow squall activity that would impact our area. Idk if I've ever seen the 5H evolve like that before. Kind of wild to see. Seen it modeled plenty of times like that at range, just never usually ever actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 @NorthArlington101 keeping the 4th alive at this point 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, T. August said: @NorthArlington101 keeping the 4th alive at this point Maybe we could try to the start two threads trick again from last year @NorthArlington101 can claim that responsibility though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Speaking of not giving up until the shorter-range, I'll keep beating the Jan. 4 drum. ICON ens (as I understand it, a fork of the EPS) took about a ~200m jump to the NE. Still got 5 days. I have been keeping an eye on it too. GFS and CMC both have a coating, mostly for southern parts of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe we could try to the start two threads trick again from last year @NorthArlington101 can claim that responsibility though. We'll see what the EURO/EPS does... I've liked what we've done this year and made threads about 2 days out for the dusting-2" events. If discussion gets too clogged between our shots on the 4th/6th/10th(?) it makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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