bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I think that, if you want a big storm on the 8-10th, you'd have to be okay with an ice storm on the 6th. That's the bottom line. If we get snow on the 6th then the cold becomes too suprresive for the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, bncho said: I think that, if you want a big storm on the 8-10th, you'd have to be okay with an ice storm on the 6th. That's the bottom line. If we get snow on the 6th then the cold becomes too suprresive for the second wave. The second wave right now is history on all model. We want to score with wave one. It’s sooner anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, bncho said: I think that, if you want a big storm on the 8-10th, you'd have to be okay with an ice storm on the 6th. That's the bottom line. If we get snow on the 6th then the cold becomes too suprresive for the second wave. Looks like a pretty cold sounding by Sunday evening on the gfs/euro. Overrunning is our typical way to get a snowfall as opposed to some wound up, fantasyland, perfect track coastal. Gonna take a couple more days to figure that one out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Icon is a crushed nothing burger for the 5-6th storm lol. Got to love these models. Supression or a cutter can we get the in between please? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 ICON says what CUTTER? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Shad said: ICON says what CUTTER? Says what storm basically. Sheared out trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 12z gfs off and running. Here’s hoping for something positive. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 23 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 12z gfs off and running. Here’s hoping for something positive. It's a little closer on Jan. 4. Still have time to trend that into a light event, at least for the beaches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Icon not the best start to the 12z suite with a complete swing and miss. Need GFS and Euro to hold some type of hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 GFS wont make any friends for a Jan 5/6 event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 So far, GFS seems a bit better at H5...s/w further south in the midwest vs 6z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: So far, GFS seems a bit better at H5...s/w further south in the midwest vs 6z I was just typing this up. Really diggy with the ridge out west beefing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Someway, somehow the GFS is gonna try to make this thing cut, although it looks decent so far. Let's watch this unfold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: Someway, somehow the GFS is gonna try to make this thing cut, although it looks decent so far. Let's watch this unfold... Bring the good juju!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Someway, somehow the GFS is gonna try to make this thing cut, although it looks decent so far. Let's watch this unfold...Does it really matter till dr no speaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Cutter to suppression back to cutter lol. Gefs members starting to agree now it’s a cutter. Cover all bases and claim confirmation after the result 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Cover all bases and claim confirmation after the result Can you PLEASE stop with this? 6 2 1 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Like I said, the H5 is improved and CAD is pretty entrenched, but it's gonna try that cutting bullshit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 DT said there was no chance this would cut and the models showing it were wrong. Is he going to eat more crow yet again? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Like I said, the H5 is improved and CAD is pretty entrenched, but it's gonna try that cutting bullshit light snow at 7:00am Monday, but think sleet is quickly on the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 CAD firmly entrenched...snowing Monday morning...if anything looks like things are getting squashed out, not cutting. ETA, yeah, we lose the SFC and 850 next panel, but it doesn't cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: light snow at 7:00am Monday, but think sleet is quickly on the doorstep This must be the storm you'll be gone for? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Looks like it got sheared out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Verbatim, it's a cute little 1-2 before it flips to sleet or snizzle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 few flakes to ice to nothing, strung out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: This must be the storm you'll be gone for? was gonna fly out Tuesday - now looking at flying out Sunday to maybe dodge this mess lol. I'm a mess and this storm is equally a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Gem at 156hrs looks much different thann0z. S/w is more amped put west. Shocked if it cuts, but shred and suppression still on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I dont think these models have a clue how to handle anything at this point for events from the 5th-9th ...........Canadian has a much different look at 168.....something may be brewing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Gem at 156hrs looks much different thann0z. S/w is more amped put west. Shocked if it cuts, but shred and suppression still on the table. Yeah, GEM def looks more interesting than the GFS for sure. I'd be shocked as well if it cuts...but we've seen it all so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, mattie g said: Can you PLEASE stop with this? The facts get to you don’t they There are a few other negative Nellie’s considered charming . Model fact addresses not charming it appears it’s part of a weather discussion to discuss recent and ongoing blown model samples. It’s not all hopes and wishes We get to 3 days remaining and a low IS coming near Atlanta and heading northeast then we got something to latch onto. Models even blew it last year within 24 hours after we had the one good Jan event. I remember this and thus don’t rely on a myriad of examples showing low out to sea, over Norfolk, over DC or cutting into the lakes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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