Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Southern portion of forum about to get mauled by Icon hrs 177-180 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Southern portion of forum about to get mauled by Icon hrs 177-180 I choose to believe it would be more than just the southern portion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I choose to believe it would be more than just the southern portion I agree looking at the 500 map, pretty good dig, not totally flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 ICON would be a good hit in DC IMO for a cold smoke event. Of course if you’re looking for a 3 foot snowstorm like some here are, then good luck. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 ICON would be a huge hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I choose to believe it would be more than just the southern portion My WiFi at home tonight is not great so I should’ve let the run play out some hahaha. Also, it is the icon so there’s always that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Seems like gfs will be north of icon. At least through hour 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, notvirga! said: Seems like gfs will be north of icon. At least through hour 156 That's okay with me. Gives us a better shot at the 8-10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 WB 0Z GFS...sleet bomb starts as brief period of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Starts as snow. Temps 20-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Gfs op looks weird. Slow moving OH valley low… then it dies… and then not 24 hours later a coastal races by? 500mb looks more like one wave trying to phase with the PV than two separate storms. Either way, it won’t verify close to verbatim. 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 GFS looks odd, but you gotta admire the way the cmc just shreds the energy when there's not a strong confluence zone. Makes even less sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Gfs op looks weird. Slow moving OH valley low… then it dies… and then not 24 hours later a coastal races by? 500mb looks more like one wave trying to phase with the PV than two separate storms. Either way, it won’t verify close to verbatim. GFS looks really wacked out . Looks like a trasher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I still like the Jan 6th storm. It has a ton of moisture in the Midwest, moving into a -NAO block and 50/50 low. Very unlikely it will split off in pieces like the GFS is showing, there will probably be at least a 1-2 day space between waves, or it may organize as the front end storm completely. In which case, it could be a decent thump of snow with the moisture Jan 5-6. Not really a strong -EPO pattern yet on Jan 5/6, which is usually associated with a lot of ice. 7-8 days to go. A lot will be worked out. I love snow that precedes colder periods. These have been more rare lately. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Toss that run, kind of strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 i sweat to go if this thing falls apart or ends up being a cutter im done lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 10 minutes ago, Ruin said: i sweat to go if this thing falls apart or ends up being a cutter im done lol It's going to be hard for it to cut into a -NAO block. The Pacific isn't unfavorable.. I think the key is how cold it gets before hand. The pattern is still raging +NAO/+EPO right now so we'll have to see how this pattern change over the next few days goes. Worst case scenario, the -NAO is not as strong as currently projected.. Edit: We do already have -NAO today, I was a day or two ago. So the pattern change is already taking place.. gives more confidence to the solution. The H5 does let up a little during the storm, any trend towards a continuum is good, we have a good pattern on the front and back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Well, nothing is settled here.. But the trends of consolidation and a clear outcome are out. If today's dud is a harbinger for poor forecasting, I am going to be even more skeptical than ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Well, nothing is settled here.. But the trends of consolidation and a clear outcome are out. If today's dud is a harbinger for poor forecasting, I am going to be even more skeptical than ever. It’s all at least a week away. We’ve all been doing this for years, so why is anyone dissecting the surface? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Really strong -NAO through Day 15 on todays 0z GFS.. The Pacific ridge is trying to retrograde at the end, but it looks like an active pattern under Polar ridging Usually -NAO's aren't so wet but they've acted differently for the last 11-12 years, with less suppression.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 00z EURO is a very solid hit on the 6th… maps coming. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 WB 0Z EURO for early next week 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z EURO is a very solid hit on the 6th… maps coming. Also the precip orientation is… odd? I guess it gets weird when the low redevelops? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 00z EURO is a very solid hit on the 6th… maps coming. Will’s map doesn’t tell the full story - goes HECS N MD and north. Close to a banger for everyone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO for early next week This one has a perfect 50/50 low. Historical maps of our best snowfalls have the 50/50 low area almost as low of an anomaly as the actual storm (meaning it is super important)! I'd definitely watch NE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I think it’s unlikely the follow up storm ends up anything but suppressed this run. Join me on the Jan. 5-6 dark side. It’s fun for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 Long way to go in tracking next week!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Also the precip orientation is… odd? I guess it gets weird when the low redevelops? Front end thump is solid enough, but the northern parts of the forum last longer AND get hit by the CCB. Just need it a few hairs more south. Lots of time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Slightly afraid we lose our Jan 8-10 storm via supression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, bncho said: Slightly afraid we lose our Jan 8-10 storm via supression. The Day 11-13 storm? Pacific is trending not as cold, a few days ago it was pretty different actually with strong -EPO/+PNA, now it's just a weak pattern on the models. A weaker pattern actually allows things to cut, but we could be looking at upper 20s snow vs 10s it was showing before. I think it will be an interesting bit of time here tracking it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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