January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Solution Man]

Damn

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Is there any reason some transit ridging at 300+ hours is more reasonable than a HECS at the same time?

Yes. Rare events are rare for a reason and we are in a multi-year regionwide snow drought.

[WxUSAF]

My point is that the same level of confidence should be placed in any D13 model output.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My point is that the same level of confidence should be placed in any D13 model output.

Glass half empty brain is real here.

[Eskimo Joe]

44 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sounds about right. I don’t believe we are going to get a good pattern for one second. I’ll believe when I see it happening. 

Cold ENSO = lowered expectations

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Glass half empty brain is real here.

Can't be sad if you keep your expectations low!

[bncho]

Get a load of this YTber named Direct Weather. More clickbait than BamWX.
 

[BristowWx]

36 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Damn

Basically we are punting 2 weeks and then hoping something gets better.  Sounds like ops normal 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Basically we are punting 2 weeks and then hoping something gets better.  Sounds like ops normal 

Punting prime climo in the hope for table scraps is peak Mid Atlantic winter.

[Terpeast]

There's a reason op models are better limited to 168 hours, and then only ensembles after that. 

All we can take away is that the range of possibilities include a miss to the south, a HECS, and a cutter rainer. Or cold and dry.

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 hours ago, bncho said:

NOAA goes above average for January. It should be noted that it’s with quite little confidence.

And will be over a week out of date when they re evaluate on the 31st.

[Terpeast]

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

[wasnow215]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Is there any reason some transit ridging at 300+ hours is more reasonable than a HECS at the same time?

No, but then cynicism would have to take a holiday lol.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

The GFS has been confused via Jedi mind trick.

[nj2va]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

It’s easier if people just btch and moan apparently. 

[Jebman]

4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

What’s brewing is a group trip to Texarkana for their blizzard 

Oh no you don't! Keep that stuff in the Mid Atlantic! NOAA has Texas penciled in for delightfully way above normal temps next month!!!

[87storms]

51 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

Yea, you can't rely on surface maps this far out.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Get a load of this YTber named Direct Weather. More clickbait than BamWX.
 

 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

 

This might not be the most effective way to combat clickbait. 

[winter_warlock]

On 12/21/2024 at 8:25 PM, Weather Will said:

To reiterate above, rather than can kicking we continue to get stronger signal of colder temperatures as we move through the first and second week of January compared to yesterday's run.

I like that trend!!!!

[winter_warlock]

41 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s easier if people just btch and moan apparently. 

That's funny but true!! Lol

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

If you thought 18z gfs op was a disaster, look at the 18z ensembles. It is even better than 12z. 

Hmm I'm picking  up a lil sarcasm lol

[winter_warlock]

On 12/21/2024 at 2:14 PM, stormy said:

 

Lets hope that trend keeps shifting west a few more hundred miles. .

  Yess a shift west would be nice!!!

 

We need to will it to happen lol

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, bncho said:

The Euro AI just shows hit after hit after hit.

I don’t have WxBell because I’m actually poor.

Now that would be an after christmas miracle !!!

[Interstate]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

There's a reason op models are better limited to 168 hours, and then only ensembles after that. 

All we can take away is that the range of possibilities include a miss to the south, a HECS, and a cutter rainer. Or cold and dry.

I say they should be limited to 5 days for the public. 

[bncho]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This might not be the most effective way to combat clickbait. 

Models are calling for a major East Coast blizzard, man! Direct Weather is an inspiration to everybody. Lighten up!

[Jebman]

I probably shouldn't have. I just want everyone in the DC area to have a white Christmas. Or at least a white New Years Eve. You guys sure have one hell of a frigid air mass in place.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z GFS is losing the pattern a little inside 300hrs. GEM still has it. 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I say they should be limited to 5 days for the public. 

For everyone!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z GFS ensembles still have it, but I'd watch for a trend away from Polar blocking tomorrow, as the GFS usually leads the way and that's the 2nd consecutive run showing it. 2 days from now we have a 4700sdm PV strengthening east of Greenland, and shortly after a strong +EPO, so when those patterns pass, long range modeling should be more reliable.