Kevin Reilly Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 55 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Side note, anyone else notice how the forecast models for this weekend from 5 days out were wrong; there were several models calling for widespread 1-3 inches of rain. Since it was rain no one was paying attention. Point is a lot changes in 5 days and we are still over a week out.... Looks to me we had an energy split one piece south tornadoes across the south another piece went northwest of us we caught in the middle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You get it. Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You get it. In this case im rooting for something you dont want lol. When I moved down here I knew things would get testy at times with storm tracks lol. I have to root for something different sometimes or often. I mean I 100% want you to get some snow but you know how it goes... it's a backyard sport and avocados taste better here 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 29, 2024 Author Share Posted December 29, 2024 WB 18Z NBM is now going through most of next week. Yes, it is a blend of multiple previous model runs but worth looking at for quick and dirty trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm. 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In this case im rooting for something you dont want lol. When I moved down here I knew things would get testy at times with storm tracks lol. I have to root for something different sometimes or often. I mean I 100% want you to get some snow but you know how it goes... it's a backyard sport and avocados taste better here Oh hell, I didn't even know you moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Oh hell, I didn't even know you moved.Yep. He gets it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh hell, I didn't even know you moved. Yessir Closed on Rockville in early Sept. Traded 3" of climo heading SW but it will never bother me. I'm done with cities lol 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 47 minutes ago, CAPE said: Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm. Yeah, chill should be cheering a suppressed look where he is. Up in northern parts of Maryland…not so much down with suppressed looks due to a cold push. At least, not my favorite place to be in terms of dangers of missing systems. And, up this way, we’ve found a LOT of ways to whiff on systems for years now.* *psu mountain is its own thing - rest of us not on psu mountain up this way have gone years and years since a legit warning level snow event (Jan 2022 was almost a complete miss up here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Yeah, chill should be cheering a suppressed look where he is. Up in northern parts of Maryland…not so much down with suppressed looks due to a cold push. At least, not my favorite place to be in terms of dangers of missing systems. And, up this way, we’ve found a LOT of ways to whiff on systems for years now.* *psu mountain is its own thing - rest of us not on psu mountain up this way have gone years and years since a legit warning level snow event (Jan 2022 was almost a complete miss up here) Feb 2019 was the last actual warning level for me. Terrible lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, T. August said: Feb 2019 was the last actual warning level for me. Terrible lol. What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still They were around 4” each for me, so just short of warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still Yep same as Fozz here. 4.5” and 3.8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 I just checked, first one fell just short of warning at 4.5”. Second was 5.5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still Got less than 3" from both events last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 I just checked, first one fell just short of warning at 4.5”. Second was 5.5”.We have had one week of winter in the past 3 years 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: In this case im rooting for something you dont want lol. When I moved down here I knew things would get testy at times with storm tracks lol. I have to root for something different sometimes or often. I mean I 100% want you to get some snow but you know how it goes... it's a backyard sport and avocados taste better here Historic modeled cold always works out congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 The annoying thing about the 12z runs is that it looks like the gulf is trying to give something (something hard to come by in a nina, no?)? Just too blocky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 21 minutes ago, T. August said: Feb 2019 was the last actual warning level for me. Terrible lol. It has been a ridiculously long time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What about the 2 Jan events last year? Both were warning events for me. Barely, but still Nope - nice events - but neither quite warning level up this way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational. Worth a look, yes. Op euro is way overdone on suppression imho. I bet the next 0z run will bring it back further north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational. Welcome back brother. Legit warning snowfall would be just great. We’re due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Worth a look, yes. Op euro is way overdone on suppression imho. I bet the next 0z run will bring it back further north It always goes like this 12z is a bum 00z is amazing 12z is another bum 00z is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 13 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12 Euro AI sends the 6th to the south with light precip in the area, more south, and brings the 2nd storm further north and clips area with .2-.3" qpf. Bottom line, better than operational. Also has the storm on the 8th-9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 43 minutes ago, Ji said: We have had one week of winter in the past 3 years Did you have a snowless Jan 2022? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 GFS has the Friday flizzard now as well. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 32 minutes ago, bncho said: It always goes like this 12z is a bum 00z is amazing 12z is another bum 00z is amazing That’s how we roll here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 GFS looking real good for the 6th. Almost sent a Jaws but worried it could fizzle/suppress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Ooooooo. Looking good. Bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 Perhaps GUYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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