January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS, does not look bad at all...look at it as the glass is half full, an extended cold period in January is looking like a lock, let's see what the storm tracks look like as we go through the week. 

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6th not a southern slider on Eps.

So great to have you back in here. Always loved and appreciated your input over the years.  And yeah—that’s not a bad look for the 7th. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS; lot of hits here too....time will tell...

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^haven't seen a look like that in several years.

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EPS really quite surprised for the 8th-10th shot. Won’t speak to the H5 but it’s a notable step back from 00z.

Maybe a hair better for the 5th-6th

Wrt the storm potential centered on the 9th- still a solid signal for this range, but no not as good as 0z(which was insanely good). Still quite good for southern/eastern parts of our region.

[bncho]

Euro Ensemble breakdown for DC snow thru Jan 13:

1/50 members show 36+ inches (2%)
3/50 members show 24+ inches (6%)
6/50 members show 12+ inches (12%)
16/50 members show 6+ inches (32%)
21/50 members show 3+ inches (42%)
37/50 members show 1+ inches (74%)

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS; lot of hits here too....time will tell...

 

 

Wow fantastic mean.  Great period incoming. Waiting for @NorthArlington101to tell us why it won’t work. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow fantastic mean.  Great period incoming. Waiting for @NorthArlington101to tell us why it won’t work. 

I think it will work, that’s why I’m so grumpy! 
 

I don’t need to go into the theoretical discussion over the benefits of mean vs. median again, the median is fairly strong too — around 3” for the whole period. I was excited to see the Jan 6. event appear on the 24hr median - first time the EPS has had something like this at range all year. It’s quite modest, as any 24hr median will be at range, but I view median as “this is the bar.” My bar for Jan. 6 is increasingly that winter weather will happen. 

 

[Weather Will]

Side note, anyone else notice how the forecast models for this weekend from 5 days out were wrong; there were several models calling for widespread 1-3 inches of rain.  Since it was rain no one was paying attention. Point is a lot changes in 5 days and we are still over a week out....

[brooklynwx99]

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a KU when it decays, as is usual

this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

[frd]

16 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS; lot of hits here too....time will tell...

 

 

 

 

FYI

From   https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627

Basically you want to go with the Euro ensemble because : 

"European Ensemble here with the 500mb pattern, as it continues to have the highest verification scores for the Northern Hemisphere at this range."

 

[MillvilleWx]

I don’t see anything wrong with what’s being advertised on the ensembles. Deterministic will vary next few days before potentially latching onto something. Even then, the 5H evolution can lead to complexities that won’t be solved until closer to game time. We are still 7+ days away from anything appreciable from any system with the evolving pattern. Stuff won’t be rolling until a day or two after New Years. I don’t see much to be alarmed about. If there is one thing we can take away right now is that it’ll feel like deep winter after any snow/ice falls on the following Monday through the foreseeable future. Highly anomalous cold is almost becoming a certainty at this point. I would prepare now and get ahead of everyone else before this area starts to go mad. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

FYI

From   https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1873427753883578627

Basically you want to go with the Euro ensemble because : 

"European Ensemble here with the 500mb pattern, as it continues to have the highest verification scores for the Northern Hemisphere at this range."

 

Fyi, Ukie ensembles now available on Pivotal out to 198 hrs on free site. Can never have too many ensembles.  Lol

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=mogrepsgens&p=500h_anom-mean&rh=2024122912&fh=0&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what a sick trend. we've gone from a rather transient east-based Greenland ridge to a true west-based retrograding Davis Strait block. this will lead to legit potential for a KU when it decays, as is usual

this pattern generally favors NYC down to RIC honestly

Pretty, but verbatim the vortex part of that block is displaced more southward than ideal. Increases suppression risk for the NE and northern MA. I made note of this in a post based on the 12z op run.

[87storms]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 I would prepare now and get ahead of everyone else before this area starts to go mad. 

Jeeps are just too expensive these days.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty, but verbatim the vortex part of that block is displaced more southward than ideal. Increases suppression risk for the NE and northern MA. I made note of this in a post based on the 12z op run.

that's around the 5-6th, though. moves into the more ideal 50/50 position around the 8-9th, which is probably the first shot at a big one

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that's around the 5-6th, though. moves into the more ideal 50/50 position around the 8-9th, which is probably the first shot at a big one

Yeah that's closer to where we want it. If you didn't see it, check out what the op does in that timeframe lol. Explains a lot of how things transpired on that run.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah that's closer to where we want it. If you didn't see it, check out what the op does in that timeframe lol. Explains a lot of how things transpired on that run.

yeah I think the OP is a bit much with the suppression but it's a possibility in these patterns. gotta deal with the risk of suppression if you want larger storms, though

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty, but verbatim the vortex part of that block is displaced more southward than ideal. Increases suppression risk for the NE and northern MA. I made note of this in a post based on the 12z op run.

Too much of a good thing.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too much of a good thing.

Yeah I'm starting to go into a mode of waiting for the blocking to break down to expect anything.

[cbmclean]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm starting to go into a mode of waiting for the blocking to break down to expect anything. Seems like we had some strong cold back in Jan 2017 and it was dry as well...

You're probably thinking of Jan 2018?  Super cold snap, almost too suppressed for down here!!

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6th not a southern slider on Eps.

So great to have you back and contributing Mitch. You’re one of the best here. I really missed you. Welcome back. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I'm starting to go into a mode of waiting for the blocking to break down to expect anything. Seems like we had some strong cold back in Jan 2017 and it was dry as well...

I don't think we need to wait for the block to break down to get 'anything' but if we are expecting a MECS+ from RIC to BOS then yeah, probably. We should have chances tho regardless for some (relatively) smaller events.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Im totally good with suppression 

You get it.

[clskinsfan]

Euro took the 540 line down into Southern Florida this run. Insanity. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS, does not look bad at all...look at it as the glass is half full, an extended cold period in January is looking like a lock, let's see what the storm tracks look like as we go through the week. 

Honestly looks like a cruising system dropping out of Canada carving out a trough clipper esque 

[Kevin Reilly]

55 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Side note, anyone else notice how the forecast models for this weekend from 5 days out were wrong; there were several models calling for widespread 1-3 inches of rain.  Since it was rain no one was paying attention. Point is a lot changes in 5 days and we are still over a week out....

Looks to me we had an energy split one piece south tornadoes across the south another piece went northwest of us we caught in the middle 

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You get it.

Literally lol. Where he is, good spot for a suppressed storm.

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You get it.

In this case im rooting for something you dont want lol.

When I moved down here I knew things would get testy at times with storm tracks lol. I have to root for something different sometimes or often. I mean I 100% want you to get some snow but you know how it goes... it's a backyard sport and avocados taste better here 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z NBM is now going through most of next week.  Yes, it is a blend of multiple previous model runs but worth looking at for quick and dirty trends.