January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

6 days away from a cutter to chicago.

And that is the absurd changes were often experience. It would be insane to not be skeptical .  Hopeful is warranted but more to it than  wants snd wishes 

[Solution Man]

Snow is snow, “let’s get some”

[Ji]

Nothing is off or on the table. the 6z  EUro AI cuts hard and still suppresses the 2nd storm. But watching this model this winter...its been a disaster. Way worse than the OP EURO

[psuhoffman]

The biggest issue on gfs is timing. Not enough separation between the two waves. The boundary is close by but the lead wave slowed down 12 hours and really squashes the second. It’s trying to amplify onto the suppressive flow behind wave 1. We need more separation for it to work 

 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

Nothing is off or on the table. the 6z  EUro AI cuts hard and still suppresses the 2nd storm. But watching this model this winter...its been a disaster. Way worse than the OP EURO

Nothing is on or off the table at day 7+? Wow you don’t say, thanks captain obvious. 

[psuhoffman]

But wave 2 dying on the gfs has opened the window behind it. Incoming look day 9!  The pattern is loaded. Remember what I said though about it often not being the wave we first identify at range. 

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Anyone upset at this gfs run is lacking perspective. No single run is likely to be 100% accurate at that range or even close. It’s well within a typical expected error of a hit this run. That’s all that matters. 

People look at the 00z Euro and think there'll be a BECS. They need to look at the bigger picture.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But wave 2 dying on the gfs has opened the window behind it. Incoming look day 9!  The pattern is loaded. Remember what I said though about it often not being the wave we first identify at range. 

There’s a lot of potential on the board. Hopefully we connect a few or at least one. 

[poolz1]

What an epic look.  Good lord!

[psuhoffman]

Ggem suppressed for the opposite reason as gfs. It washes out wave 1 which leaves room wave 2 to amplify and it does but without wave 1 it drops the boundary too far south. Both are a typical error at that range from a hit so Im fine with both. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, poolz1 said:

What an epic look.  Good lord!

Not sure I’ve ever seen a setup like that almost doesn’t look real …it looks we made as a teaching element for this is what you want.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But wave 2 dying on the gfs has opened the window behind it. Incoming look day 9!  The pattern is loaded. Remember what I said though about it often not being the wave we first identify at range. 

i dont think we will make it that long

[psuhoffman]

This gfs run has too much blocking day 10-15 and crushes everything.  That hasn’t been a typical problem at all recently so let’s wait and see. I’d rather see that than cutters at range. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This gfs run has too much blocking day 10-15 and crushes everything.  That hasn’t been a typical problem at all recently so let’s wait and see. I’d rather see that than cutters at range. 

Aren't we more likely to cash in when things relax, anyway? The old "not at the beginning of the pattern" rule our big snows seem to follow?

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This gfs run has too much blocking day 10-15 and crushes everything.  That hasn’t been a typical problem at all recently so let’s wait and see. I’d rather see that than cutters at range. 

Ya we hardly get sustained massive cold. Rather see a possible pattern to score in and not cutter city. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Aren't we more likely to cash in when things relax, anyway? The old "not at the beginning of the pattern" rule our big snows seem to follow?

we are doomed. Too much cold and blocking lol

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Aren't we more likely to cash in when things relax, anyway? The old "not at the beginning of the pattern" rule our big snows seem to follow?

Yes but people don’t want to hear that. But it’s typically how it goes with blocking. 

[mitchnick]

Time for the Gefs.

[Jebman]

12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

What an epic look.  Good lord!

This looks good. Setup for decent cold, storming. Snow maybe even on top of snow sticking around. Plenty of time to enjoy a good stout and take in an epic jebwalk and shovel pow all day, only to have that wind re drift it then the PLOW seals you in nice and snug with an eleven foot snow berm.

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but people don’t want to hear that. But it’s typically how it goes with blocking. 

Are posting from an airplane flying to Canada?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Are posting from an airplane flying to Canada?

I’m somewhere over Montana. 

[Jebman]

Plenty snow in Montana.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but people don’t want to hear that. But it’s typically how it goes with blocking. 

@CAPE I guess this is what I was getting at the other say when I said "too much cold". Deep blocking usually comes with deep cold, doesn't it? And of course...it squashes until it relaxes. So maybe we're tracking a bit too early in this?

[clskinsfan]

Ukie very similar to the GFS. maybe 6 hours quicker with 1st wave

[StormyClearweather]

Verbatim, GFS has many of us go below freezing by 3Z on the 7th and stay there through the end of the run (12Z on the 14th). 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@CAPE I guess this is what I was getting at the other say when I said "too much cold". Deep blocking usually comes with deep cold, doesn't it? And of course...it squashes until it relaxes. So maybe we're tracking a bit too early in this?

Not necessarily. Some of our best NA blocking periods are associated with being 'just cold enough'. In this case there is also an amplified EPO ridge and a southward displaced TPV.

[TSSN+]

Really not any agreement on the 1st wave. Gefs is all over the place. 

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Really not any agreement on the 1st wave. Gefs is all over the place. 

idk - this looks like a nice spot to be in. Need a little colder

[psuhoffman]

Ji is right there is definitely potential for the Jan 6 wave to trend south. Slightly less separation between the wave and the 50/50 and it could be a better event. I think the top end potential is lower than the next wave hypothetically but I wouldn’t kick a 4-8” snow out of bed.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Ji is right there is definitely potential for the Jan 6 wave to trend south. Slightly less separation between the wave and the 50/50 and it could be a better event. I think the top end potential is lower than the next wave hypothetically but I wouldn’t kick a 4-8” snow out of bed.  

4 to 8 then cold with additional chances for a few weeks is nice.